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2018 Super Bowl Wagering Advice: Props to Avoid


by Chris Vasile - 1/30/2018

Philadelphia Eagles QB Nick Foles

We are just five days away from Super Bowl LII, and the anticipation is building with every mention of snacks, office pools and crazy props bets that sportsbooks are offering up to bettors. We live in a world where every aspect of any major sporting event is analyzed and picked apart until we are left with bits and pieces of how the outcome came to be instead of just enjoying the outcome as a whole. If you are stuck or torn in any way regarding the side you feel has the best chance to emerge victorious, I highly recommended zeroing in a select few prop bets that you actually like instead of playing them all with the possibility of losing a ton of money.

However, buyer beware. Not all prop bets are as straightforward as they seem, and most that are available fall into the "sucker bet" territory. Let's take a closer look at Super Bowl LII prop betting and figure out which types of wagers to avoid and which offer the most value. In case you forgot, the Super Bowl is scheduled for Sunday, Feb. 4, at 6:30 p.m. EST.

I will break down these prop bets into three categories. The odds are courtesy of our friends at Bovada

Random but Popular Prop Bets

 

Some of the most popular prop bets you can make on the Super Bowl occur both before and after the actual game itself, and many of them garner the most media attention. Props such as the length of the National Anthem, color of the Gatorade shower, and the much-maligned game-opening coin toss . While these props can be fun and offer a quick win, they are still a "suckers bet", especially when you have to pay juice on each line. Those who are serious about sports betting and consider themselves to be "pro" handicappers typically don't think twice about these kinds of prop bets. A serious bettor knows that over the long run, there is no possible way to make a profit wagering on props that are a 50/50 split or have no research or data available to base a wager off of. I've listed some of the crazier and random entertainment type prop bets on betting boards across Canada and the US.

Coin Toss: Heads -105, Tails -105

Will the Team That Wins the Coin Toss, Win the Game? "Yes" -105, "No" -105

How Long Will the National Anthem Last? "Over" 2:00 minutes -140, "Under" 2:00 minutes +100

Color of the Gatorade Shower: Orange +450, Red +350, Blue+300, Green +1250, Yellow +350

Will Pink Be Airborne at Any Point During the Anthem: Yes +300, No -500

What Color Hair Will Pink Come Out With: Pink/Red +150, White/Blonde +175, Brown/Black +400

Who Will Be Shown on TV First During the Anthem: Tom Brady -200, Nick Foles +150

Cross-Sport Props

 

Cross-Sport prop bets are unique because they allow you to get in the most action possible in one wager. Cross-Sport prop bets are typically mixed with the NHL/NBA and can be a two-day wager, or in some cases (like this prop last year: Las Vegas Golden Knights (Total Goals in First NHL Game) -0.5
Falcons + Patriots (Field Goals Made in First Half) +0.5) take up to eight months to complete. There are certain spots in which I would consider wagering on a prop like the following, but it's hard enough to win one single bet, let alone a multi-sport parlay.

Here are some of the Cross-Sport prop bets available:

Ben Simmons (Total Points) +3.5
Philadelphia Eagles (Total Points) -3.5.

Simmons takes on the Pacers the night before, so this is a definite pass for me. If the Jags can put up 20 points with Blake Bortles, I'm almost certain the Eagles can put up just as many.

Tim Hardaway Jr. (Total Points) +3.5
Nick Foles (Total Completions) -3.5

This all depends on the game script the Eagles try to follow. Hardaway takes on the lowly Atlanta Hawks at Noon on Sunday, so he could easily put up 20+ points. Once again, this is a very difficult prop to pick.

Tottenham/Liverpool (Total Goals) +0.5
Alshon Jeffery (Total Receptions) -0.5

These are two of the highest-scoring teams in the Premier League. If they can combine for three or four goals, then this could be a solid pick. Unfortunately, it's soccer and the minute you expect a higher-scoring game, you get stuck with a nil-nil dud.

Player and Team Props

 

Typically, these kinds of prop bets are the safest way to wager. If you have some sort of idea on how you think or hope the game plays out, then finding a prop involving your favorite team or player can not only benefit your team but also your bankroll. There are certainly plenty of options to choose from, but not all of them will hold real value. Here are a few of your options whether you like the Falcons or Patriots.

Philadelphia
Nick Foles - Total Pass Attempts - "Over" 33.5 -125, "Under" 33.5 -105
Nick Foles - Total Completions - "Over" 22.5 -125, "Under" 22.5 -105
Nick Foles - Total Passing Yards - "Over" 235.5 -125, "Under" 235.5 -105
Nick Foles -Total Touchdown Passes - "Over" 1.5 -140, "Under" 1.5 +110
Alshon Jeffery - Total Receiving Yards "Over 55.5 -115, "Under" 55.5 -115

 

New England
Tom Brady - Total Pass Attempts - "Over" 37.5 -125, "Under" 37.5 -105
Tom Brady - Total Completions - "Over" 25.5 -125, "Under" 25.5 -105
Tom Brady -Total Touchdown Passes - "Over" 2 -165, "Under" 2 +135
Tom Brady - Total Passing Yards - "Over" 285.5 -125, "Under" 285.5 -105
Dion Lewis - Total Rushing Yards - "Over" 55.5 -125, "Under" 55.5 -105

Player props can be a tricky situation because they require several different things to happen in order to hit your bet. For example, if you like Brady to throw for more than 25 completions, a Patriots blowout or lead heading into the fourth quarter would likely prevent him from throwing the ball more than a handful of times. Because of that, Lewis might be able to exceed his total of 55.5 rushing yards. Everything is connected in one way or another, and this is why even the simplest of prop bets are difficult to accurately predict.

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