Scott Spreitzer Week 11 NFL Handicapping Notes

by Scott Spreitzer - 11/20/2018

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes

This is an informal look into my weekly NFL notes as I take them from highlight shows, internet recaps, and my own eyes while watching games. Please excuse the informal look...consider this a weekly rough draft.

We enter the new football week on a 47-24 CFB & NFL winning run. We swept our big plays, winning with the Colts in the NFL and Navy in college. We'll take a 14-1-1, 93% winning top play run into the new week and have a 7* Main Event in both college football and the NFL. Grab the entire week of college and NFL plays and NOTE: Plays will be posted for the entire week on Wednesday afternoon (Nov. 21).

NFL WEEK-11 RECAP:

BUCCANEERS 35-38 GIANTS: Winston 12-16-189-2-1 (Came in for Fitzpatrick who threw 3 INTs). Barber 18 carries 106 yards 1 TD. Saquon Barkley 27 carries 142 yards 2 TDs and 1 Rec TD. Manning 17-18-231-2. Buccs allowing 33 ppg during 3 game losing streak. Buccs -23 turnover margin is the worst in the league. League high 23-INT thrown...defense with NFL low 1 INT. TBAY: most points allowed through 10 games since 1981 Baltimore Colts.

PANTHERS 19-20 DETROIT: Gano missed extra point and a missed FG. Cam 25-37-357-3-1. McCaffrey 110 yards rushing/receiving combined. DJ Moore 7 rec 157 yards 1 TD. Stafford 23-37-220-1. Kerryon Johnson 15 carries 87 yards 1 TD (He runs well...Lions in position to win). Golladay 8 rec 113 yards 1 TD. Cam missed open receiver going for 2 with 1 min left. Carolina 1-7 last 8 road games. Detroit 4-0 when allow 23 or fewer points.

BENGALS 21-24 RAVENS: Lamar Jackson 13-19-150-0-1. 117 yards on 27 carries...most for a QB in the Super Bowl era (won't last -- too many carries by about 20). Gus Edwards 17 carries 115 yards 1 TD. Balt (ran the ball 54 times) outrushed Cincy 265-48. Dalton 19-36-211-2. Mixon just 14 yards on 12 carries. Cincy has lost 4 of 5 after 4-1 start.

TITANS 10-38 COLTS: Colts 17-3 run vs. Tennessee. Luck 10-0 vs. Titans. 23-29-297-3. Luck 4th player in NFL history to throw at least 3 TD passes in 7 straight games. T.Y. Hilton 9 rec 155 yards 2 TDs. 3 TDs and 1 FG first 5 possessions. Defense mixed-up blitz packages big-time. Brought 5 at times...sent 3 with a spy at times. Knocked Mariota out of the game.Gabbert 11-16-118-1-1. Titans defense was leading the NFL allowing just 16.8 ppg before Sunday. Colts 36.4 ppg during 4 game win streak. Colts 0 sacks allowed last 5 games. Pro Football Focus notes: 2016 Luck sacked 41 times (44.3% dropbacks under pressure). 2018 Luck sacked 10 times (28.4% dropbacks under pressure).

RAIDERS 23-21 CARDINALS: Derek Carr - calls consecutive timeouts. Carr 19-31-192-2-0. RBs Richard, Martin & Washington: 33 carries 152 yards. 5 game losing streak snapped. Held Arizona to 282 yards. Both teams ran for about 5 yards per carry. David Johnson 25 carries 137 yards, but Josh Rosen 9-20-136-3-2.

BRONCOS 23-22 CHARGERS: Chargers 6-game win streak snapped. 3rd quarter INT by Rivers inside Denver territory, leading 19-7 was a huge turning point. Keenum 19-32-205 (went 5-6, 86 yards on game-winning drive)...Keenum wasn't sacked on Sunday. Denver 25-0 when they have 0 turnovers. Lindsay 11 carries 79 yards 2 TDs. Rivers 28-43-401-2-2 (1st game this season with 2 picks). Gordon 18 carries 69 yards and 87 rec yards. Bolts 120 penalty yards.

STEELERS 20-16 JAGS: Pittsburgh 14-0 final 2:30 of the game (outgained Jags 154 to -2 in the 4th). Big Ben 27-47-314-2-3...and 1 rushing TD. Conner only 25 yards on 9 carries. Antonio Brown & Schuster 13 rec 221 yards and 1 TD combined. Bortles 10-18-104. Fournette 28 carries 95 yards 1 TD. Steelers 6 game win streak and 4-0-1 road. Pitt had 0 points on their first 9 possessions. Jags 14.7 ppg and Bortles 5 TD passes & 9 turnovers during 6 game skid. Jags have allowed 8 TD passes last 3 games (NFL low 6 TD passes allowed 1st 7 games). Terrible play-calling by Jags on offense late in the game.

TEXANS 23-21 SKINS: Watson 16-24-208-1-2. Miller 20 carries 86 yards. Alex Smith (inj - out 6-8 months) 12-27-135-0-2 (enter Colt McCoy 6-12, 54, 1 TD). Peterson 16 carries 51 yards 2 TDs. Houston 2nd team in NFL history with a 7 game win streak following a 0-3 start (1925 Giants). 4th win this season by 3 points or less. Hou 29-1 SU under O'Brien when leading at the half.

COWBOYS 22-19 FALCONS: Dak 22-32-208 and 1 rush TD. Zeke 23 carries 122 yards 1 TD...79 rec yards. Ryan 24-34-291-1-1 (the 1 INT was a drop by a WR). Dallas 5-0 this season when they don't turn the ball over. ATL 3 losses this season after leading or tied with 30 seconds left in the 4th quarter. 0-4 when they allow 125 or more yards rushing. ATL 6.4 yards per play to Dallas 5.1.

EAGLES 7-48 SAINTS: Wentz 19-33-156-0-3. Brees 22-30-363-4-0. Ingram 16 carries 103 yards 2 TDs. Tre'quan Smith 10 rec 157 yards, 1 TD. M. Thomas 4 rec 92 yards, TD. Worst margin if defeat ever for a defending Super Bowl champ. Philly 24 points or fewer in 9 of 10 games this season. Saints had 6 TDs and 2 FGs on first 9 possessions. N.O. 37.8 ppg and 6 games scoring 40 or more (ties NFL record)...4th team with 45 or more points in 3 straight games. Brees 25 TDs 1 INT this season. Best offensive line in the NFL.

VIKINGS 20-25 BEARS: Total closed 44. Was 45 final few days before dropping on Sat night. 28 combined points scored in the 4th quarter. CHI outrushed Minnesota 148-22. Trubisky 20-31-165-1-2...10 carries 43 yards. Cousins 30-46-262-2-2. Cook just 12 yards on 9 carries. Diggs 13 rec 126 yards 1 TD. Khalil Mack & Eddie Jackson - huge games on defense. PK Cody Parkey with a big game, including a 48-yarder.

CHIEFS 51-54 RAMS: KC 546-455 yardage advantage. 95 passes were attempted in the game. Hunt only 14 carries and Gurley only 12 carries. Thought the lack of rushing attempts was a mistake by both coaches. 7 turnovers including 5 by KC. 3 defensive TDs and 21 penalties, including 13 by KC.

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Scott Spreitzer Week 11 NFL Handicapping Notes

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