NFL Power Rankings Week 13
By this point in the season we know who is who and what is what. Sure, there will be a surprise team or two, for good or ill, throughout the brutal month of December. Yet for the most part the NFL hierarchy is pretty firmly established.
Right now one of the most misleading statistics in the NFL is wins and losses. Since we can delineate the good teams from the bad having an understanding of strength of schedule and its impact on the relativity of teams and their records and rankings. Generally, you don't hear about NFL strength of schedule with the random exception of a couple random times throughout the offseason (like when next year's schedules are released).
However, by the time people are paying attention to schedule strength in April, it is an obsolete statistic. The teams aren't the same. The whole league isn't the same. It is a pointless comparison.
But right now having an understanding of who has coasted against weak sisters and who has earned it against the best of the best can give you a small predictive tool to use as we head down the stretch.
According to one online football team rankings site, the teams that have played the top 10 most difficult schedules in the league: Kansas City, Cincinnati, Seattle, Denver, Atlanta, Buffalo, Cleveland, the Rams, Tennessee and Pittsburgh.
The teams with the weakest 10 schedules: Indianapolis, Chicago, the Jets, Miami, the Chargers, San Francisco, Houston, New England, Arizona, Philadelphia, Washington Detroit and Carolina.
I have plenty of my own conclusions to draw from those lists, and they will be utilized in my handicapping through the next five weeks. I'm not going to tell you how to interpret it yourself. I'm merely presenting information for you to do with what you please.
With that in mind, here is Doc's Sports NFL Power Rankings:
1. New Orleans Saints (10-1) - The unstoppable force (New Orleans' 10-0 ATS run) meets an immovable object (the betting public's love for Dallas) this Thursday. The public is still all over New Orleans, and the books moved the line from 7.0 to 7.5.
2. Los Angeles Rams (10-1) - For as good as the Rams have been this year, they have not been good at blowing teams out. Of their last seven wins in the past eight weeks, only one of them, at San Francisco, has come by more than the double-digit spread they will be asked to top in Detroit this week.
3. Kansas City Chiefs (9-2) - The road team has dominated this Raiders series, going 21-9 ATS in the last 30 meetings. Kansas City is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games in Oakland and 5-2 ATS in the last seven against the Raiders overall. Kansas City is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 road games overall and 21-8 ATS in its last 29 divisional games.
4. New England Patriots (8-3) - Despite record passing numbers throughout the NFL this season, Tom Brady's passer rating, completion percentage and yards per pass are all down, and he is on pace for his worst statistical season since 2013.
5. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-3-1) - That Denver game is kind of the epitome of why Pittsburgh is not going to win another Super Bowl. This team just doesn't take care of the ball. They had four turnovers and lost a game despite outgaining their opponent by 225 yards. Big Ben has thrown five interceptions in his last two games while trying to force the ball to Antonio Brown. That's not acceptable.
6. Los Angeles Chargers (8-3) - Keep an eye on the weather in Pittsburgh this Sunday. The Chargers have played only three road games since Week 3, and none of them were in cold weather stadiums. The game getting flexed to Sunday night will mean colder temperatures, and the Chargers are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine December games overall.
7. Chicago Bears (8-3) - I don't care who is quarterbacking for the Bears on Sunday. Pat Shurmur's dink-and-dunk offense isn't going to do a thing against this Bears defense. And when you mix Eli Manning's turnover-happy style with Chicago's incredible rate of forcing turnovers, this one looks like a solid setup for the Bears.
8. Minnesota Vikings (6-4-1) - The Vikings defense have been dominating two of the most important statistical categories: third down defense and red zone defense. They are No. 1 in the NFL in both, by a wide margin, allowing just 27.6 percent conversions on third downs and just 43.2 percent in the red zone.
9. Baltimore Ravens (6-5) - I'm still not all-in on Lamar Jackson leading the way. Though Baltimore has outgained its last two opponents by a combined 315 yards, those opponents were two of the worst defensive teams in the league, and both games were at home. Performing on the road will be a whole different ball game for the rookie quarterback, even if he does get to face another paper mache defense.
10. Houston Texans (8-3) - The Texans hammered Cleveland 33-17 last October and have beaten the Browns four straight times. They are 6-1 ATS in the series. The Texans have not beaten a team that currently has seven or more wins this year, and I am wary of this overrated group; their secondary will have to play much better against a confident Baker Mayfield than it did against a banged-up Marcus Mariota last Monday.
11. Carolina Panthers (6-5) - The Panthers have now lost back-to-back games by a total of four points despite outgaining their opponents by a total of nearly 160 yards. The Panthers have beaten Tampa Bay three straight and in seven of 10. They are also 5-0 ATS in their last five trips to Tampa. Despite that, and despite the public all over Carolina, the line on this game is dropping.
12. Seattle Seahawks (6-5) - I have said it before and I will say it again: in my opinion Pete Carroll is the coach of the year. No one has done more with less and the Seahawks are a legitimate threat in the NFC right now. Seattle is 6-1 ATS at home against the 49ers and they are 11-2 ATS in the last 13 meetings in this series overall.
13. Indianapolis Colts (6-5) - If it seems like the Colts haven't been on the road in forever it is because this week's trip to Jacksonville is their first road game in seven weeks. And their other one was against feeble Oakland. The Colts are 32-13 ATS against teams with a losing record but just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 divisional games.
14. Dallas Cowboys (6-5) - New Orleans has been a nemesis for the Cowboys. Dallas is just 2-8 SU against the Saints dating back to 2003 and just 3-7 ATS in those games. Dallas is just 5-11 ATS against teams with a winning record. And even though this week's game doesn't come on a short week, Dallas is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 Thursday games.
15. Tennessee Titans (5-6) - Marcus Mariota became just the second quarterback in the last 50 years to lose a game in which he completed more than 90 percent of his passes. After getting sacked just 2.7 times per game in their first nine games, the Titans have allowed 10 sacks the last two. Tennessee is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 home games.
16. Washington Redskins (6-5) - D.J. Swearinger called out his teammates for weak practice habits again this week. The key word there is "again". He's done so multiple times this year. And with this season quickly getting flushed down the toilet, you have to wonder if there is going to be even more finger pointing as this coaching staff starts to pack its bags. Washington is 7-20 ATS in its last 27 MNF games.
17. Denver Broncos (5-6) - Last week's win over Pittsburgh was a total fluke, as the Steelers completely outplayed Denver but were done in by turnovers. I'm always wary of backing a team in their next game following a fluke win. Denver lost at home to the Bengals last November, and the favorite is just 1-8 ATS in the last nine meetings between these teams.
18. Atlanta Falcons (4-7) - If the Falcons were smart, this offseason they would dump Steve Sarkisian and bring Dirk Koetter back to run the offense. They also lost another starting defensive lineman this week and are one more injury away from pulling guys out of the stands. The Falcons are just 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.
19. Philadelphia Eagles (5-6) - If you are holding your breath for an Eagles resurgence, don't. They are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games and 0-5 ATS in their last five home games. Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in the division, and they are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games against the Redskins. They certainly are catching Washington at the right time. I still have little faith in this team, though.
20. Green Bay Packers (4-6-1) - Part of me would believe the conspiracy theory that Aaron Rodgers is tanking to finally rid himself of pud Mike McCarthy. There's probably only about a 5 percent chance of that theory being true at this point. Yet there is now no reason for Green Bay to play hard to save his job and no reason to continue to play Rodgers and exploit him to any potential injuries.
21. Cleveland Browns (4-6-1) - Cleveland is just 7-18 ATS in its last 25 games against teams with a winning record and just 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games on the road. They also won't have the same level of emotional investment into this week's game against Houston as they did against Cincinnati last week.
22. Detroit Lions (4-7) - Matthew Stafford has made a career of putting up huge numbers in garbage time and being one of the masters of the fourth quarterback ATS backdoor comeback. But the Lions are 0-7 straight up this season when the Lions trail in the fourth quarter, and those backdoor covers have been nonexistent.
23. Miami Dolphins (5-6) - It is insane that Miami is 5-6 on the season and that they were just one or two plays away from being 6-5 and coming off a win in Indianapolis. Miami has been outgained by over 900 yards and outscored by 59 points on the season. The favorite is 10-4 ATS in the Bills series, but Miami is just 3-7 ATS in the last 10.
24. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-8) - Doug Marrone's decision to axe his offensive coordinator is bizarre. Nate Hackett was able to coax the No. 5 scoring offense and No. 6 total offense out of a group led by Blake Bortles last year. The fact that it took Marrone this long to bench Bortles, who is a total loser, is much more egregious than anything Hackett has been responsible for. But then again, Marrone has never been successful as a head coach anywhere, so why should we be surprised?
25. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-7) - Don't get suckered into a late-season surge from this team. Tampa Bay was at home, playing against an equally bad San Francisco team, with the situational advantage of long travel and an early start time for their opponent. The Bucs are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine games.
26. Buffalo Bills (4-7) - I am not ready to run out and grab a jersey or anything, but I have to say that the more I see of Josh Allen the more encouraged I am. Also, the Bills are starting to do some more interesting things on offense. That Isaiah McKenzie touchdown run was a great play, and I like how aggressive this team is throwing the ball down the field.
27. New York Giants (3-8) - So the Giants aren't making a run to the playoffs? Anyone that bought into New York's resurgence was kidding themselves. The Giants did cover the spread last week against the Eagles. But Philadelphia stinks. And that loss really burst the pathetic "momentum" New York had after wins over pathetic 49ers and Bucs teams.
28. Cincinnati Bengals (5-6) - Wait, so you are telling me that the football genius that is Hue Jackson - you know the new assistant head coach for the Bengals - had no insight, no scheme, no knowledge about his former team that he could use to benefit his new team? Shocking.
29. New York Jets (3-8) - The Jets defense hasn't forced a turnover since Week 6. It is one thing to have issues on offense due to erratic quarterback play. But when you are a "defensive coach" and your defense stinks, that kind of tells the tale.
30. San Francisco 49ers (2-9) - So Nick Mullens isn't the savior? There is a reason that this guy was a third-string quarterback coming into the season. He will get the start this week against Seattle and will be San Francisco's fifth different starter against the Seahawks since 2016.
31. Oakland Raiders (2-9) - Here are Oakland's margins of defeat the last two months: 17, 14, 31, 14, 24 and 16 points. You are insane if you are taking the points with this crop of losers - who will likely get little to no home fan support from here on out - this week against the Chiefs.
32. Arizona Cardinals (2-9) - Here is how pathetic the Cardinals are: Green Bay is one more loss from completely mailing it in and they have lost four of their last five games outright. Despite that Arizona is still a 14-point underdog in Lambeau Field this weekend, and I don't know too many handicappers in a hurry to take those points.
Throughout the season I will have my NFL Power Rankings every Tuesday. My next ones will be released on Tuesday, Dec. 4.
Robert Ferringo has been the top football handicapper in the country the past seven years, earning nearly $28,000 in total football profit. He has also posted seven of nine winning seasons (including back-to-back winning years) and produced 26 of 41 winning football months and an amazing 45 of 71 winning football months over the past decade. Robert has is at nearly 60 percent winners over his last 900 totals picks. Also, Robert's proprietary KING College Football Betting System has posted three of five winning seasons. Robert is looking for a third straight winning football year and wants more profit this fall. SIGN UP HERE TODAY AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF OUR 3-FOR-1 FOOTBALL SPECIALS!
We are offering new clients $60 in free NFL football picks for Robert's picks or any Advisory Board handicapper of your choosing. Get your free NFL football picks now!
Read more articles by Robert Ferringo