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2018 NFL MVP Odds with Expert Betting Predictions


by - 6/5/2018

New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady

Ten of the last 11 winners of the NFL MVP award have been quarterbacks - Adrian Peterson in 2012 was the lone exception. So, it comes as little surprise, then, that the non-QB with the lowest odds in 2018 NFL MVP futures is Le'Veon Bell at +300, which places him behind 13 starting quarterbacks. Very few people seem to think that anyone who isn't a QB will win the award this year, and given the field and the trends of voters they are probably right. But which QB? Let's look through the top 10 players for potential value ( Odds are from MyBookie.ag ):

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay (+380): I have no interest in betting on Rodgers as the favorite at this price. He's obviously a freakish talent - he has won the MVP twice already. But he's 34 years old and coming off a season in which injuries limited him to just seven games. I frankly don't trust his body, and I don't trust that his team around him is skilled enough - especially at receiver - right now.

Tom Brady, QB, New England (+450): At what point would it make sense to bet against Brady? Only when he isn't playing anymore. On paper it doesn't make a lot of sense - he's ancient, the team has changed around him a whole lot, and the talent level might not be great. But he was brilliant last year, so he can do it again - and the team will win their division again by default. I don't know that I love this price, but I'm not going to rule him out.

Carson Wentz, QB, Philadelphia (+450): This is interesting. The guy is coming back from a serious knee injury, and his team has a potential Super Bowl hangover to overcome. But he would have won the award last year if he hadn't been hurt, and he should be motivated. I don't love the price, but I get it.

Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans (+1000): This is the first price I have seen that seems reasonable - one that could have some value, in other words. Brees isn't getting younger, but he's still playing very well. He had a strong season last year and showed that he could adapt his game. There is a lot of skilled talent around him, and they should be productive. He's a contender.

Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle (+1200): I am not buying this one at all. The Seahawks have gone through a major talent overhaul this offseason, and they are not as good as they were. And the team has had a lot of drama around them, which doesn't help. It feels to me like it will be a long season in Seattle, and even at full strength I'm not convinced that he has MVP-level talent. Easy pass.

Kirk Cousins, QB, Minnesota (+1500): It remains to be seen how he fits in to a new system, but the Vikings should be motivated to make their massive investment pay off, Cousins should have a chip on his shoulder the size of a refrigerator, and there is lots of talent. I would bet this price if I was looking to bet any.

Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta (+1600): Ryan is a guy I really struggle to be objective about. I can't even put my finger on what it is that I don't like. He just isn't tough enough when it really matters. But the talent is solid, and he is a very good player. I'd pass, but I would get it if others didn't.

Deshaun Watson, QB, Houston (+1600): What Watson did last year was very impressive. But this is still a guy who has only played less than one season and who is coming back from a significant injury. I would buy futures in Watson without hesitation if he were a commodity, but this year is too soon for him.

Cam Newton, QB, Carolina (+1600): This is a strange case. He won the MVP convincingly is 2015 and then has seemingly forgotten everything that got him to that point since. It's like he is a completely different guy, and I see no value in betting that he will suddenly figure it out.

Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, San Francisco (+1600): No player will be more overbet that Jimmy G. He was impressive last year, and he has a strong pedigree with the Patriots connection. He's well coached, too. But while the Niners have made real strides forward, it feels too early to have crowned him as the future king already - at least in the short term. At twice this price I could consider it, but not here.

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