Docs Website

53 Years Strong! A Trusted Leader In Sports Picks, Best Bets and Predictions Since 1971.

Main Menu

NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Odds and Expert Betting Predictions


by - 5/25/2018

Bradley Chubbb of the Denver Broncos

It took a long while, but MyBookie has finally posted odds for the Defensive Rookie of the Year. We discussed the offensive ROY battle right after the Draft , but this race is much deeper and much more interesting. We are looking at the Top 7 guys on the odds board here, but there are six or eight more that you could easily make a case for - and one long shot who stands out who we'll look at, too. This is going to be a very fun race to watch.

Bradley Chubb, DE, Denver (+140): Lining up with Von Miller is a pretty good way to join the NFL. Chubb will have to find his place in a 3-4 defense, and massive expectations will make his margin for error small, but he certainly has the skill and the power to put up some big numbers. Voters love sacks, so leading that category is a big advantage here. He's a legitimate favorite, but my gut tells me this is too low and we should look elsewhere.

Roquan Smith, LB, Chicago (+400): Smith is a very talented and accomplished player who plays a style that is NFL-ready. And his new defensive coordinator is Vic Fangio, a guy who has worked with Ray Lewis and several other top linebackers in their prime. It's a picture-perfect fit. Chicago was a bad team last year, but they could be poised to take a step forward, and Smith could get more attention - and a ton of tackles - as a result. If I had to bet on one player it would be Smith without hesitation.

Minkah Fitzpatrick, CB, Miami (+650): A cornerback hadn't won the award since Charles Woodson in 1998 before Marcus Peters and Marshon Lattimore won two of the last three, so suddenly the position is popular again. That helps Fitzpatrick. But I am not a believer in him here at all - certainly not at this price. The biggest issue he has is that I am not convinced that he is going to play starter minutes in a reasonably-deep Miami backfield.

Denzel Ward, CB, Cleveland (+650): The most stunning moment of a crazy NFL Draft first round was when the Browns selected Ward with Chubb still on the board. It was a decision that felt very Cleveland, and not in a good way. It puts a huge target on Ward, and it's tough to believe that he will jump out of the gate well enough to claim this award.

Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Buffalo (+800): Edmunds would easily be my second pick behind Smith here. He's a freakishly athletic tackling machine. The Bills invested in their defensive line this offseason, and it should be solid. That means that Edmunds should be able to roam around relatively freely, seeking out the ball handler and doing damage. Preston Brown tied for the league lead in tackles as a linebacker behind a lesser line in this Buffalo system last year, so Edmunds could really pile up the numbers.

Derwin James, S, L.A. Chargers (+800): The biggest knock against James is simply his position - the last safety to win the award was Mark Carrier way back in 1990. But James isn't a prototypical safety. He roams the field and racks up tackles like a linebacker, and with a very strong pass rush in front of him he'll have the opportunity for his share of picks, too. He's in a very good spot here on a team that should be good this year. If you wanted to argue that there was a little value here then I wouldn't fight you about it.

Marcus Davenport, DE, New Orleans (+1000): Davenport is a tough one to assess. On one hand, he'll line up opposite Cam Jordan, so he'll have plenty of opportunities to shine. And he looked absolutely freakishly dominant in college. The problem, though, is that he only played at UTSA, so he'll face offensive linemen now that are dramatically bigger and more talented than he is used to. If he can adjust quickly then he'll be a force, but that's a big if.

Off-the-board long shot: Maurice Hurst was an absolute wrecker on the inside of Michigan's defensive line last year. One prominent evaluation service graded him as the top player in college football last year. But a suspected heart ailment derailed his Combine attendance, and despite getting clearance from multiple doctors he fell like a rock. From a likely Top 15 pick to a fifth-rounder in a flash. If Hurst is indeed healthy then he landed in an ideal scheme in Oakland, he'll get his share of attention due to Gruden if he plays well, and he'll be playing with a massive chip on his shoulder all season. If you can find a book that will give you a price it could be worth throwing a couple of bucks on it for bragging rights alone.

Doc's Sports is offering $60 worth of member's picks absolutely free - no obligation, no sales people - you don't even have to enter credit card information. You can use this $60 credit any way you please for any handicapper and any sport on Doc's Sports list of expert sports handicappers. Get $60 worth of premium members' picks free .

Read more articles by

Most Recent NFL Handicapping

One E-mail A Week Is All You Need!
Our weekly newsletter is loaded with exclusive free picks,insight and advice from our expert handicappers