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NBA Betting Trends: Totals Report for Hot Over and Under Teams


by - 4/6/2018

Rudy Gobert Utah Jazz

Who would have guessed the Philadelphia 76ers would be fighting for the third spot in the NBA Eastern Conference playoff standings? Toronto and Boston will finish first and second, and the 76ers and Cavs are battling it out for the third spot. Houston has the No. 1 spot locked in the Western Conference, and the Warriors are No. 2. Will Stephen Curry get healthy for the playoffs? Even if he doesn't, don't sleep on the Warriors; that team still has a ton of talent.

Doc's Sports has done an NBA Totals Trends report in the past, and we'll be doing it again this season. This will be a bi-weekly article here on the site. We'll highlight the Top Five 'Over' and the Top Five 'Under' teams in the last couple weeks. The NBA season is a very long one, and that lends itself to finding changes in style of play that aren't yet noticed by the oddsmakers. We'll try to find some value in the totals market through this report.

For the season to date, the under is 604-562 (51.8 percent to the under). That is up from 51.46 percent unders a couple weeks ago when we did the report. Under bettors have done well the last couple weeks.

The statistics listed below are for games from March 22 through April 5.

Top Five 'Over' Teams (Over Listed First)
 

1. Milwaukee Bucks (7-1) This is the second report in a row with the Milwaukee Bucks at the top of the list of over teams. Milwaukee's initial jump in defensive intensity after Jason Kidd was fired is long gone. The Bucks rank fourth in the NBA in field goal percentage in the last eight games. They also rank second worst in offensive rebounds allowed. Milwaukee is giving up a lot of easy shots. Combine that with not getting defensive rebounds, and you have a recipe for some really bad defensive numbers.

2. Utah Jazz (7-1) This one really surprises me. Utah ranks first in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last eight games. The Jazz are averaging 1.144 points per possession during that time. The Jazz are shooting 50.8 percent from the floor in their last eight games, and no one else in that NBA is shooting better than 48.8 percent. Utah's defense, which had been first in the NBA of late, has slipped to 11th in defensive efficiency

3. Memphis Grizzlies (5-2) It doesn't surprise me to see the Grizzlies at this spot on the report. Memphis has packed their bags for the summer, and that makes relatively low overs a solid value with teams like Memphis. The Grizzlies rank second worst in the NBA in points allowed per possession in their last seven contests. It would be over or nothing for me on Grizzlies contests the rest of the way.

4. San Antonio Spurs (5-2) The way the Spurs have fallen apart late in games in the past week has been shocking. The worst part about it for Spurs fans is it has been their normally reliable defense that has let them down. The Spurs rank fourth in the NBA in points allowed per possession on the year, but they are 22nd in the last seven games alone. With this coaching staff, I don't want to completely count out the Spurs, but things don't look good for this team.

5. Los Angeles Lakers (5-3) The Lakers offense has been much better in the last couple weeks. This team has gotten to the line the third most of any team in the NBA in their last eight games. Though the Lakers aren't going to the playoffs, they will have a big say in who goes and what spot they will start at in the playoff standings in the Western Conference. The Lakers finish by playing four teams either in the playoffs or just barely on the outside of the playoff picture.

Top Five 'Under' Teams (Under Listed First)

 

1. Phoenix Suns (6-1) The Suns are shooting nearly 30 shots per game from 3-point range in the last seven games. They are shooting only 31.6 percent from long range in that time. Phoenix is also shooting a league-worst 68.3 percent from the free throw line during this period. I'd be careful about jumping on unders here, though, and they play some fast-paced teams in their last three games.

2. Sacramento Kings (6-1) The Kings rank 27th out of 30 teams in the NBA in pace of play during their last seven contests. Sacramento has been surprisingly good on defense of late. They rank eighth in points per possession allowed in their last seven contests. They are averaging only 14.7 free throw attempts per game. That is the second fewest in the NBA.

3. Oklahoma City Thunder (5-1) Oklahoma City has had some high-scoring games of late, but they haven't been high enough to go over lofty posted totals. In the Thunder's last 10 games, nine of them have had a closing total of 216.5 or higher. The Thunder have stayed narrowly under the total in five of their last six games. Take a look at the Western Conference playoff race and you'll see Oklahoma City has a lot to play for in their final three games.

4. Houston Rockets (6-2) Houston has locked up the top seed, and conventional wisdom would tell you that might make them play a little quicker and play less defense. That hasn't been the case thus far. Houston is playing at an average tempo, but they are third in points allowed per possession in their last eight contests. I still think their final few games might be a little higher scoring than what they have been in recent weeks.

5. Cleveland Cavs (6-2) The Cavs have the hottest team in the NBA (76ers) breathing down their neck for the third spot in the Eastern Conference. Cleveland has slowed their pace of play drastically in recent games. I believe that is because they know how important these games are to their playoff positioning. Cleveland's defense is far from good now, but it isn't nearly as bad as it was earlier this year. LeBron James continues to do amazing things, and though this team has plenty of weaknesses, as long as James is healthy this is a dangerous team.

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