MLB Totals Betting Trends for Hot Over and Under Teams 9/14/2018

by Aaron Smith - 9/14/2018

The Arizona Diamondbacks have taken a lot of close losses of late, and they have slipped behind by 4.5 games in the National League West. Colorado continues to be the comeback kids, and the Rockies have won all sorts of close contests this year. The Rockies lead the Dodgers by 1.5 games. That should be a great race to the finish. The National League Central is interesting as well, since the Brewers have drawn to within 1.5 games of the Cubs. There is almost no drama in the American League as we finish out the regular season.

What does the totals picture look like as a whole so far this year? The under is 1,093-1,007 (52.05 percent unders). As it has the whole year, the under continues to win at an extremely high rate in extra-inning games. The under is 103-82 in extra-inning contests this year. That isn't something you'll see every year. Everyone knows the feeling of losing an under in extra innings, but this year more games have stayed under the total despite going into extra frames.

The numbers below are for games played from August 31 through September 13.

Top Five 'Over' Teams (Over Listed First)

1. Oakland Athletics (9-3) Oakland is 3.5 games behind the Houston Astros in the American League West. Oakland has slipped a bit behind despite the fact that they have been playing really well of late. Houston has just been winning at a ridiculous rate in the last few weeks. Oakland has six games remaining against the Los Angeles Angels, so they'll have to beat up on the Angels as they finish the season to have any chance of regaining first place. Oakland's 43-29 record on the road this season is extremely impressive.

2. Minnesota Twins (8-5) The Minnesota Twins are a miserable 24-48 on the road this season. Minnesota has received only 52 quality starts this year, and that has put a lot of pressure on their bullpen. As the season has gone along, the bullpen has gotten a lot worse. In the past month alone, Minnesota's bullpen ranks in the bottom five in the majors in team ERA. Minnesota plays its next nine games on the road.

3. Texas Rangers (7-5) The Rangers have a 43-28-4 record to the over in their home games this year. Their road games are 39-27-5 toward the under. Texas has hit the ball much better on their home field this season. The Rangers have only six games at home remaining. This is a team that has played some terrible baseball down the stretch, and I'd be very careful backing them the rest of the way.

4. Washington Nationals (7-5) The Nationals were expected to be a World Series contender. Instead, they'll be at home for the playoffs. It won't matter as far as getting to the postseason, but I am surprised the Nationals have won five of their last six games. It would be easy for this team to just shut it down late in the season, but they have at least continued to battle. This offense has been hitting the ball very well of late.

5. New York Mets (6-4-2) The Mets offense is bad, and everyone knows that. Why are they going over the total a bit more of late? Their totals have gotten so low that the value has been completely gone on the under. I will note that the Mets are hitting .238 against right-handed pitching but a really ugly .225 against left-handed pitching. If you are looking to play unders with this team, it's probably best to do it when they are against a lefty.

Top Five 'Under' Teams (Under Listed First)

1. San Francisco Giants (9-2-1) Those betting on the under in the San Francisco Giants games over the last month or so have put a lot of extra money in their pocket. The Giants have easily been the worst offense in the majors during that time. How bad have they been? San Francisco has a team batting average of just .196 in the past 30 days. The second-worst team in the majors in team batting average during that span is the Marlins at .227. I see no reason to take overs the Giants the rest of the season.

2. Chicago White Sox (8-3-1) Jose Abreu is finally back in the lineup, but he missed a lot of time. Now, Yoan Moncada and Matt Davidson are both battling injuries. Keep an eye on those injuries. The White Sox don't have much lineup depth, so there aren't solid options to plug in when key players are out of the lineup. The White Sox received a crushing blow for their future recently as well when star young pitcher Michael Kopech received word that he needed surgery for a UCL tear.

3. Los Angeles Angels (9-4) Here's a team with some drastic splits on offense. The Angels have a .226 batting average against left-handed pitching. The Angels have a batting average of .255 against right-handed pitching this season. Think twice before you take an over when the Angels are up against a lefty. This season has been a disappointment for the Angels, and injuries have been their main problem.

4. Pittsburgh Pirates (7-3-1) The Pittsburgh Pirates have been on this side of the report two times in a row. Pittsburgh has received the sixth-most quality starts of any team in the majors. The Pirates have a nice group of solid young starting pitchers, and they have a good bullpen as well. The Pirates will need to find some more offense in the offseason ahead.

5. Boston Red Sox (7-4-1) Boston is a ridiculous 101-46 on the season. The Red Sox rank first in the majors in runs scored per game and overall team batting average. Boston needs Chris Sale to be completely healthy or they might make a quicker exit than expected in the playoffs. Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez have led the offense all year long. Don't be surprised if Boston rests a lot of players in the last couple weeks of the regular season.

Start:	November 22, 2024 @ 8:00 PM
Expert:	Vernon Croy
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