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MLB Home Run Totals Props Odds with Expert Betting Predictions


by - 3/21/2018

New York Yankees' Aaron Judge

We've already look at which players have the best shot at winning the home run title in both the American League and the National League and where the value lies in futures betting. Now it's time to take a look at the sluggers from a different angle. BetOnline has listed totals for home runs for many of the top deep ball artists in the league. Let's look through them and find the ones most worth a discussion, shall we?

Aaron Judge 'Over/Under' 34.5: The over is solidly favored at -125 here. And after 52 home runs and an Everest-sized mountain of hype, that is no surprise. He had 52 last year as a rookie. There are obvious concerns - pitchers know him better and know how to make him strikeout more, which isn't exactly a challenge. A sophomore slump is a real issue. And he's coming back from arthroscopic shoulder surgery, so health is a concern as well. But he's going to be well protected in the lineup - it's harder to pitch around him with the other assassins the Yankees have. And after a post-All-Star slump of major proportions he got it back on track, which shows both good grounding and resilience. I don't love the price, but the over is hard to argue against.

Bryce Harper o/u 32.5: This one is very interesting. The over is at -150, which makes it the second most expensive price behind only Stanton. But he has gone over this number only once in his six years in the major leagues, hitting 42 in 2015. Health is an obvious issue here - he has played 118 or fewer games in three of his six seasons. But last year he had 27 in just 111 games, which is a 39-homer pace in a full year. And this year he will be highly motivated, playing for the shot at a contract that could be truly insane starting next season. To bet the over is to bet he stays healthy, and I really hate the price, but the number sitting where it is means I can't justify the under, either. Pass.

Charlie Blackmon o/u 27.5: This number feels like a bit of a gift - and bettors are recognizing that as the over is at -125. Blackmon had a freakish year last year, hitting 37 homers and batting .331 while hitting 104 RBIs as a leadoff hitter. Incredible. It wasn't a total fluke, either - the numbers the year before weren't quite as good but still strong with 29 homers and great numbers elsewhere. He still plays in Colorado, which helps his power numbers, and he is a very talented and dialed in hitter. Easy over.

Giancarlo Stanton o/u 42.5: This is the most interesting number on the board. The oddsmakers are basically daring you to take the over. Bettors are up to the challenge, too - the over is heavily favored at -155, which is the steepest price on board. The answer isn't quite as obvious as it seems. He had 59 homers last year and is in a more protected lineup in a more favorable stadium this year, so the upside is massive. But he had a career high of just 37 homers before last year and has struggled to stay healthy. I get why people like the over, and I tend to as well, but not at this price.

J.D. Martinez o/u 34.5: Martinez had 45 home runs last year in a career year split between Arizona and Detroit. And he had 38 in 2015. But he had 23 in 2014 and 22 in 2016, so his power certainly isn't consistent or reliable. And he's heading to the intense media spotlight of Boston and playing in a stadium that isn't massively friendly to deep ball hitters. It feels like an under to me. Unfortunately, I am far from alone in that opinion - the under sits at -120.

Josh Donaldson o/u 32.5: Here's another lopsided opinion - the over for the former MVP sits at -150. That feels like an easy play to make. He had 41 and 37 home runs in two healthy seasons in 2015 and 2016, respectively, in Toronto. Last year pretty much everything went wrong for the team, and he was hurt a lot and left to carry the offense mostly alone when he was healthy. He only played 113 games and hit 33 home runs - a 47 homer pace on a full season. And he's another guy playing for a new contract next year. Again, the price isn't great, but the over is a comfortable play.

Khris Davis o/u 34.5: Davis is an absolute masher, going for 42 and 43 home runs the last two years while playing in an Oakland park that wasn't exactly designed to make hitters happy. And he is incredibly consistent. Just think about this for a second - he has hit exactly .247 each of the last three seasons. He is very underappreciated, and the over is an easy play. Way over, in fact.

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