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MLB Betting Trends: Totals Report for Hot Over and Under Teams


by - 5/11/2018

Cleveland Indians starting pitcher Corey Kluber

After a series win over their rivals, the New York Yankees have matched the Boston Red Sox for the best record in baseball at 26-11. The Cleveland Indians are only 18-18, but that is good enough for first place in the awful American League Central. The Chicago White Sox have the worst record in baseball at 9-25. The American League West appears to be the most improved division in baseball. The Angels are tied with the Astros for the lead in the division. Oakland is no longer a bottom-feeder.

Doc's Sports has done an MLB Totals Trends report in the past, and we'll be doing it again this season. This will be a bi-weekly article here on the site. We'll highlight the Top Five 'Over' and the Top Five 'Under' teams in the last couple weeks. The MLB season is the ultimate long grind, and it is probably the single best sport to try to find a team on a streak and back that trend for a while. Hitting can be contagious both in a good and bad way, and that can lead to some major streaks. We'll try to find some value in the totals market through this report throughout the season.

What does the totals picture look like as a whole so far this year? The under is 267-259 (50.76 percent unders).

The numbers below are for games played from April 27 through May 10.

Top Five 'Over' Teams (Over Listed First)

1. Cleveland Indians (10-2) I highlighted several reasons why I would be concerned taking unders with the Indians in the last article. In this case, those concerns proved to be correct. Cleveland has been an over machine in the last two weeks. The Indians offense has bounced back from their poor batted ball luck, and their bullpen has totally fallen apart thanks in large part due to injuries. Andrew Miller can't come back soon enough for the Tribe.

2. Texas Rangers (9-2-2) Texas has one of the worst starting rotations in baseball. Cole Hamels is no longer the star pitcher he was for the Phillies several years ago, and the rest of the rotation is much worse. The bullpen isn't much better. The scoring usually goes up in Texas' home games as the temperature rises, so be on the lookout for some high totals in Texas this summer.

3. Minnesota Twins (8-4-1) The Minnesota Twins have been a disappointment so far this season. As I said before, the back end of their bullpen needs some major attention. Fernando Rodney isn't going to be the answer here. I continue to believe this is a solid offense, and they are likely to score a lot of runs this season.

4. San Francisco Giants (9-5) The Giants were doing surprisingly well up until their four-game sweep at the hands of the Phillies this week. Injuries have caught up to this team. Johnny Cueto's injury turned out to be severe, and Madison Bumgarner is still a little ways from coming back. The Giants defense isn't doing its job either. San Francisco has committed 31 errors already this year!

5. Toronto Blue Jays (7-4-3) Toronto has Josh Donaldson back in the fold, and that should mean improved performance as an offense. I will look to back Toronto or take overs with them when they are against left-handed pitching because of Donaldson's terrific splits against lefties. How long will Roberto Osuna be out? It's something to keep a close eye on in the next few days. This bullpen is much worse without him.

Top Five 'Under' Teams (Under Listed First)

1. Colorado Rockies (10-2) The Rockies have been an under machine of late. It's important to note that some still see this team as a group that needs to win games 10-9. That's no longer the case. Colorado's bullpen is one of the best in baseball. The Rockies offense isn't as good as it was a few years ago. Be careful not to think about the Rockies of old too much. They will still have some high scoring games, but they won't be as consistently high scoring as they were in the past. Colorado has a miserable .215 average against right-handed pitching this season.

2. Tampa Bay Rays (8-1-2) In my last report, the Rays were first on the opposite side of this article as they were hitting the cover off the ball. I said I couldn't believe their performance, and they have definitely come crashing back down to earth of late. Tampa Bay's offense isn't very good. Through this season, I'll continue to look for chances to buy back on the under with Tampa Bay after they have a short-term hot streak offensively.

3. St. Louis Cardinals (7-2-2) Tommy Pham and Yadier Molina have been out of the lineup of late. In the long run, it is hard to say whether Molina being out will help the under or not though, because he has a big positive impact on the pitching staff as well. The Cardinals still have a very good offense, and in the long run I see them as a good over team. I see St. Louis as one of the biggest underperformers on offense so far this year, and I'll look for big improvement going forward.

4. Chicago Cubs (8-4) The Cubs have gotten some good pitching in the last couple weeks. The bullpen has been stellar during that time, and they have gotten their fair share of quality starts as well. The Cubs have an easier schedule in the month ahead, so we'll see if they can get the lead in their National League Central during this period.

5. Milwaukee Brewers (7-3-2) The Milwaukee Brewers bullpen has been the biggest surprise of the season for me. Josh Hader has been absolutely unhittable. Hader has allowed only five hits in 22 innings of work! Jeremy Jeffress has allowed only one run in 21 innings pitched. Corey Knebel has been out with an injury, but he is now back in the fold. Milwaukee's offense has underperformed to date. This is a team to keep an eye on going forward. With their strong bullpen, if they can get either improved starting pitching or offense, the Brewers can be a playoff team.

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