Golf Betting Systems: Quicken Loans National Picks and Expert Analysis

Another Travelers Championship golf tournament; another Bubba Watson win. Bubba Watson erased a six-shot deficit in the final round by shooting a 7-under 63 to win his third career Travelers title. The win marked Watson's 12th PGA victory of his career, and he essentially did it in style by firing two rounds of 63 and by gaining a ton of strokes on the field. Watson's all-around game was impressive as he gained more than three strokes putting en route to his first 63 in Round 2. He also gained 4.2 strokes tee-to-green on the field and has now shot 63 or better a total of five times at this course. Watson also dominated the Par-4s, gaining a whopping 11.31 strokes this week. He birdied four of the six Par-4s coming home on Sunday and played the Par-4s at 11-under for the tournament. The moral of this story is to always back Watson on Watson type courses. He seems to thrive the most when he plays on courses he has had success on in the past. But enough about last week, time to move on focus on the Quicken Loans National Tournament.

This year's field is composed of 120 total players, and the top 70 and ties will make the cut to play on the weekend. As of writing this, Rickie Fowler is the overwhelming favorite at +700. Tiger Woods is right behind him at +1200, while Marc Leishman and Francesco Molinari are +1800. Kyle Stanley rounds out the Top 5 at +2000, while Charles Howell III and J.B. Holmes are priced at +2500.

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TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm - Course Layout

In order to completely break down the field and use the process of elimination to build out the golf card, we must understand what kind of course we are dealing with. The Quicken Loans National is being contested this year at TPC Potomac, which is a Par-70 that plays 7,107 yards. The field will have to contend with fast and firm Bentgrass and extremely narrow fairways, in addition to 89 bunkers and seven water hazards scattered across the course. The course doesn't lend itself to easy scoring as six of the Par-4s are between 400-450 yards, and they all played over par last year. Finding the fairway on this course is of the utmost importance. If you're not scoring on the holes that you should be scoring on, you're going to have a bad time.

This is the second consecutive year this tournament is taking place at TPC Potomac. Last year, Kyle Stanley emerged victorious after shooting a 7-under 273 on route to a playoff victory over Howell III.

Quicken Loans National - Key Stats

Par-4 Scoring + Driving Accuracy

The field for this year's Quicken Loans National event is fairly weak compared to the last handful of tournaments. With that said, there isn't enough value on the top end of the betting board to just blindly bet the favorites like Fowler, Woods, Leishman or even Charles Howell III. However, if there ever was a week where everything was lining up for Woods to find the winner's circle for the first time in a really long time, it would be this week.

We all know Woods struggles with his driver and can post some big numbers in a hurry. However, at TPC Potomac, Woods may be able to get away with leaving the driver in the bag and navigating the course in a strategic fashion. Woods has been an absolute Strokes Gained machine over his last 24 rounds, ranking first in tee-to-green and approach, third in total ball striking, 10th in Par-4 scoring, 15th in SG: Birdies or better, and 21st in total strokes gained. The only thing that he needs to improve is the flat stick as he ranks 73rd. If Woods can continue to play well and get around the course in a patient way and have an above-average four days with his putter, we could be looking at the official return of Tiger. The only thing is, at 12/1, there is absolutely no value to be had on him.

Another player that could be worth a look this week is Ryan Armour. Armour is a relatively long shot at +12500, but when you look at recent form he rates out well. Armour is second on Tour in driving accuracy and first in fairways gained over the past 36 rounds. He's also made four cuts in a row, and that's thanks in large part to his ever-improving approach game. Armour has gained strokes on approach shots in each of his last three starts and has continuously improved over that stretch - 0.2/2.4/3.8. If he can continue to hit the ball in the fairway and make up plenty of strokes around the green and have an average weekend putting the ball then I expect Armour to be near or at the top of the leaderboard.

And the last guy I will recommend taking a long hard look at is James Hahn. Hahn is always at his very best on tough, technical courses that challenge the player to keep the ball in the fairway and score on Par-4's. Hahn has won at similar courses such as Riviera in 2015 and Quail Hollow in 2016. Hahn's game has been starting to come around and show signs of life. He is 37th in bogey avoidance, 54th in SG: T2G and 71st in scrambling. If Hahn can get his putter working on these quick Bentgrass putting greens, the rest of his game should put him in a position to score and ultimately compete in a tournament where the winning score should be around 7-under par.

The Pick:

Last week I decided to switch it up and take Patrick Cantlay and Kyle Stanley to come inside the Top 5. They both finished T-15, but I did mention that you should blindly bet Bubba Watson because he loves Pete Dye courses.

This week, I'm taking two flyers to finish inside the Top 10: Armour and Hahn. You can currently get both players at +800 at Bovada . This is a play where I feel both players are set to pop based on their recent play. It also beats taking Fowler to win at 7/1 when he hasn't won in over a year. Woods may get his first win of the season, but until he shows me that he's capable of winning again, I'll be on the sidelines watching, especially at 12/1.

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