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Free NBA Picks: Tuesday, March 27, 2018, Opening Line Report and Handicapping


by - 3/26/2018

Los Angeles Clippers Center Montrezl Harrell

Obviously, every team but the Milwaukee Bucks is kicking itself still for not taking unknown Greek teenager Giannis Antetokounmpo in the first round of the 2013 draft - the Freak clearly goes No. 1 overall in an incredibly weak class if there's a redraft; if you are wondering, the player who went No. 14 overall, one spot ahead of the Freak, was Shabazz Muhammad to Utah (but traded to Minnesota and is now on Bucks). I mention this because it's the time of year when college players make their decisions to declare or not for the NBA Draft. The Freak has a younger brother named Kostas, a redshirt freshman at Dayton. A 6-foot-10 power forward who was forced to sit out his first year as a non-qualifier, the 20-year-old played just 15 minutes per game this season and averaged 5.2 points and 2.9 rebounds. Kostas is declaring but won't hire an agent, meaning he could return to school. Where do you draft this kid if he stays in it? The athleticism is clearly there, albeit not on his brother's Freak-ish level. Do you grab Kostas near the end of the first round and stash him overseas? Wouldn't that make all the sense in the world for someone like the Celtics of Warriors? Maybe the Bucks take him just to make big brother happy with his contract coming up again in a few years. Just something to be aware of come this summer's draft if Kostas stays in it.

Spurs at Wizards (TBA)

The Spurs had their six-game winning streak snapped Sunday, 106-103 in Milwaukee. San Antonio was down 15 with eight minutes to go and actually had a shot to tie at the end, but Dejounte Murray's 3-pointer was blocked. LaMarcus Aldridge scored 34 points. The Wizards dropped their third in a row Sunday, 101-97 at home vs. the Knicks. Bradley Beal scored 14 points but shot just 5 of 17 for Washington. John Wall went through a full practice over the weekend, so he could be getting close to a return. San Antonio has taken four straight in the series, winning 98-90 at home (their 18th straight W at home in the series) on March 21. Aldridge had 27 points.

Key trends: The Wizards are 3-7 against the spread in their past 10 vs. the West. The "over/under" has gone under in seven straight Spurs games vs. teams with a winning record.

Early lean: My only TBA thought is that Wall could potentially play, although he's listed as out on the official game notes.

Nuggets at Raptors (-8.5, 226)

Denver was in Philadelphia on Monday. The Raptors were upset at home by the Clippers on Sunday, 117-106, blowing an 18-point first-quarter lead. DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry combined for just 22 points on 7-for-21 shooting. The Dinos are now 30-7 at home, still the league's best record. They might be a good fade candidate the rest of the way with the top seed in the East nearly wrapped up. The Nuggets beat the Raptors on Nov. 1, 128-111. Denver shot 54 percent and hit 16 3-pointers.

Key trends: The Raptors have failed to cover six straight games. The over is 9-1-1 in the past 11 meetings.

Early lean: Nuggets and under.

Cavaliers at Heat (+2.5, 218.5)

First TNT game. LeBron James won't win another MVP Award, but he's making a late push as the Cavs won their fifth straight Sunday, 121-114 in Brooklyn. He was 14-for-19 from the floor for 37 points to go with 10 rebounds and eight assists. He reached 2,000 points in a season for the 10th time, joining Karl Malone and Michael Jordan as the only players in NBA history to do that. Kevin Love added 20 points and 15 rebounds for the Cavaliers. The Heat dropped their second straight Sunday, 113-107 in OT at Indiana. Miami coach Erik Spoelstra missed the first game of his career, leaving Indianapolis on Saturday after learning his wife Nikki was entering labor. Spoelstra is expected back here. Last regular-season meeting between the teams with Cleveland leading 2-0, winning both at home.

Key trends: The Cavs are 1-5 ATS in their past six in Miami. The over is 4-1 in the Heat's past five at home.

Early lean: Cavs and over.

Bulls at Rockets (-18, 217.5)

The Bulls lost a fifth in a row Saturday, 117-95 in Detroit. Once again, Chicago was without F Lauri Markkanen (lower back spasms), G Kris Dunn (right big toe sprain) and G Zach LaVine (left patellar tendinitis). By the way, Denzel Valentine's brother is an assistant for NCAA Tournament Cinderella team Loyola-Chicago. Denzel is going to try and make the Final Four as the Bulls don't play Saturday. Ho-hum, just another nine-game winning streak for the Rockets. They beat the visiting Hawks 118-99 on Sunday to reach 60 victories for the first time in franchise history. James Harden had a triple-double with 18 points, 15 assists and 10 rebounds in three quarters. Chris Paul was out again with a sore hammy. Houston has won three straight in the series, including 116-107 in Chicago on Jan. 8. Harden missed that one.

Key trends: The Bulls are 2-10 ATS in their past 12 on the road. The over is 10-2 in Houston's previous 12 vs. teams with a losing record.

Early lean: The Bulls are awful but I can't turn down that many points.

Trail Blazers at Pelicans (TBA)

The Blazers snapped a two-game skid with a 108-105 win in Oklahoma City on Sunday. CJ McCollum had 34 points. That could be crucial for Portland to get the No. 3 seed in the West over OKC; the Blazers also own the tiebreaker thanks to a season sweep. The Pelicans' four-game winning streak was snapped Saturday in Houston, 114-91. Anthony Davis led New Orleans with 25 points and had eight rebounds and four blocks. Rajon Rondo missed the game with a sprained right wrist and Nikola Mirotic did with a hip injury. New Orleans leads the season series 2-1. Davis missed one of those and left the other early due to injury.

Key trends: The home team is 9-3 ATS in the past 12 meetings. The over is 7-0 in the Pelicans' past seven on Tuesday.

Early lean: Wait on the two Pelicans.

Mavericks at Kings (+2, 205)

The Mavericks lost their fifth in a row Saturday, 102-98 to Charlotte. Dennis Smith Jr. had the ball stolen from him late with the Mavs down one. He had missed the previous two games with a sprained ankle. The Kings lost at home to Boston on Sunday, 104-93. Buddy Hield scored 24 points for Sacramento. Zach Randolph did not play for the second consecutive game for DNP-Tanking reasons. Last meeting between these teams. The Kings lead 2-1 but lost the lone one at home.

Key trends: The Mavs are 2-8 ATS in the past 10 meetings. The under is 5-2 in the previous seven in Sacramento.

Early lean: Kings and under.

Pacers at Warriors (TBA)

The Pacers won their second in a row Sunday, 113-107 in overtime against Miami. Victor Oladipo had 23 points and five assists, and Thaddeus Young added 22 points, nine rebounds and five steals as Indiana clinched a playoff spot. Domantas Sabonis was out for a sixth straight game with a left sprained ankle. The Warriors were dominated at home by Utah on Sunday, 110-91. Once again, all four Golden State All-Stars were out, and Coach Steve Kerr has said Steph Curry won't make it back by the first round of the playoffs. Curry disagrees. Draymond Green had been set to return Sunday but was ruled out with flu-like symptoms. He should be in there Tuesday as should Kevin Durant. First meeting between these teams, with Golden State having won the past four in the series.

Key trends: The Warriors are 0-6 ATS in their past six vs. teams with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in the Pacers' past four vs. the West.

Early lean: Wait on Durant/Green.

Bucks at Clippers (-1.5, 225.5)

Second TNT game. The Bucks won their second in a row Sunday, 106-103 over San Antonio. Giannis returned from missing a game due to a sprained ankle and said he wasn't quite 100 percent but finished with 25 points and 10 rebounds for his 37th double-double of the season. The Clippers completed a four-game road trip at 2-2 with an upset win in Toronto on Sunday, 117-106. Lou Williams scored 26 points against his former team. The Clippers took the first meeting last Wednesday vs. the Bucks, 127-120 behind 25 points and 22 rebounds from DeAndre Jordan.

Key trends: The Bucks are 2-7 ATS in their previous nine vs. the West. The over is 5-1 in the Clippers' past six at home.

Early lean: Clippers and over.

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