Free NBA Picks: Thursday, March 22, 2018, Opening Line Report and Handicapping

by Alan Matthews - 3/21/2018

Not NBA on TNT doubleheader again this Thursday because Turner Sports is involved in the NCAA Tournament, but I may have found the fade candidate of the year on Thursday's pro hoops slate: The New Orleans Pelicans. It has nothing to do with the team the Pelicans are hosting, the Los Angeles Lakers, but the fact that it will be the third game in three nights for the Pels. Yes, third game in three nights. I frankly thought that was outlawed by the CBA and maybe the league had to get the OK from the players' association, but it really had little choice. New Orleans was always scheduled to host Dallas on Tuesday and the Lakers on Thursday but not Indiana on Wednesday. That was a makeup game for one postponed on Feb. 7 due to a leaky roof at the Smoothie King Center. Coaches and players from both sides claimed the playing conditions were unsafe, and the NBA opted to reschedule it. It's the first time that the Pelicans will play a back-to-back-to-back since the 2011-12 season. At least they are all at home. But I'll be betting against gassed New Orleans (might even consider doubling up and taking L.A. on the second-half line).

Grizzlies at Hornets (TBA)

Nothing to see here! Memphis probably rests some guys as it was in Philadelphia on Wednesday with its two best players in question (Marc Gasol and Tyreke Evans), and the NBA can't exactly give the team grief for any DNP-CDs in the second of a B2B. Charlotte might too as it was in Brooklyn on Wednesday. On Oct. 30 in Memphis, the Hornets won 104-99. They outscored the Grizzlies 31-17 in the fourth. Kemba Walker led the Hornets with 27 points. Memphis still had Mike Conley (16 points) back then.

Key trends: The Grizzlies are 2-8 against the spread in their past 10 vs. the East, but the Hornets are 1-8 ATS in their previous nine vs. the West. The "over/under" is 4-0-1 in Charlotte's past five at home.

Early lean: Wait on the Grizz duo.

76ers at Magic (+7.5, 214)

NBA TV game. Philadelphia was home to Memphis on Wednesday. Might the Sixers rest Joel Embiid in this one because they can win without him and it's on the road? Embiid has been playing the second of the B2Bs. The Magic lost their second straight Tuesday, 93-86 to short-handed Toronto. Orlando led by eight in the fourth but shot 3-for-19 and scored 10 points. Aaron Gordon, returning after missing five games with a concussion, had 16 points. Philadelphia is 2-0 vs. Orlando, winning both by double digits at home.

Key trends: The Sixers have covered four straight meetings, and the over has hit in all four.

Early lean: Magic and over.

Pistons at Rockets (TBA)

The Pistons started their six-game Western Conference trip at 0-3 but have since won back-to-back games over the dregs of the league. It was 115-88 in Phoenix on Tuesday. Blake Griffin had 26 points, 10 assists and nine rebounds. Reggie Jackson played for the first time in nearly three months (ankle) and had seven points and two assists in 15 minutes. Could be a major letdown game for the Rockets as they ended the Blazers' 13-game winning streak on Tuesday, 115-111 in Portland. James Harden had 42 points for Houston, which has won six straight and 23 of 24. However, it looked as if Paul might have tweaked his hamstring right at the end. Detroit has won the past two in this series and knocked off the Rockets on Jan. 6, 108-101. That was when Houston was in a bit of a funk and didn't have Harden. The Rockets have also lost the past two at home in the series.

Key trends: The Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their past six vs. teams with a losing record. The under is 7-1 in the Pistons' past eight vs. the West.

Early lean: Wait on Paul.

Lakers at Pelicans (TBA)

So what does New Orleans coach Alvin Gentry do here? Does he risk playing superstar Anthony Davis all three games? The team is fighting for a playoff spot, but Davis hasn't exactly proven durable. I can't imagine any key guys will go past 30 minutes here if they weren't able to play light minutes either Tuesday or Wednesday. The Lakers are well-rested as they have been off since starting a four-game trip Monday with a 110-100 loss at Indiana, L.A.'s third straight defeat. Kyle Kuzma finished with 27 points and eight rebounds, and Brook Lopez had 23 points and eight rebounds. Lonzo Ball was rather quiet. Last meeting of the season between these teams. The Pelicans have won two high-scoring games.

Key trends: The favorite is 5-0 ATS in the past five meetings. The over is 7-2-1 in the Lakers' past 10 on the road.

Early lean: No question wait on which Pelicans play.

Jazz at Mavericks (+6.5, 198)

This loomed as a potential trap game for Utah as it should have been on a 10-game winning streak … but was upset at home by Atlanta on Tuesday, 99-94. The Jazz didn't have a field goal in the final 2:33; Donovan Mitchell missed his final four shots. He finished with 24 points. Derrick Favors sat out with left knee soreness, and the Jazz are now 2-3 without him this season. The Mavs lost a third in a row Tuesday, 115-105 in New Orleans. Dirk Nowitzki and Harrison Barnes each scored 19 for the Mavericks, who were without rookie Dennis Smith Jr. and will be again. Last meeting of the season between the two, with Utah leading 2-0 and allowing just 89.5 ppg. The Jazz look to sweep a season series with the Mavericks for the first time since 1998-99.

Key trends: The Jazz have covered just one of their past seven in Dallas. The over is 4-1 in the previous five meetings.

Early lean: Mavericks and under.

Hawks at Kings (-3.5, 210)

Plenty of good seats available! Absolutely better for either tanking team to lose than win here. The Hawks hurt their chances of finishing with the NBA's worst record in a shocking 99-94 upset in Utah on Tuesday to end the Jazz's nine-game winning streak. Dennis Schroder had a career-high 41 points. Taurean Prince made four free throws in the final 11 seconds to clinch the victory as the Hawks swept the season series. The Kings dropped their second in a row Monday, 106-90 vs. Detroit. Bogdan Bogdanovic (sore left hamstring) did not play for the first time since missing the first three games of the season because of a sore ankle. The Kings played probably their worst game of the season, which is saying a lot, on Nov. 15 in Atlanta, getting blasted 126-80. That was the largest margin of victory ever for the Hawks and Kings' worst loss since 2009. Atlanta shot 63.6 percent from the field. The Kings have won the past two meetings at home.

Key trends: The Kings are 8-1 ATS in their past nine vs. the East. The over is 14-3 in the Hawks' past 17 vs. teams with a losing record.

Early lean: Kings (favored!) and over.

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