Expert NBA Handicapping: Are Portland Trail Blazers a Contender?

by Trevor Whenham - 3/29/2018

It feels like people are rebelling against inevitability a bit in the NBA right now. A very large percentage of people, if asked, would tell you that Golden State and Houston will meet for the Western Conference title, and Toronto and Cleveland will battle in the East. And a lot of people who wouldn't say that are kidding themselves. Because the league is so top-heavy right now, people are looking for any signs of vulnerability - like Golden State's sudden bulk injuries - and trying to find a team that could exploit them and shake things up even a little. And with their play the last couple of months, the Portland Trail Blazers are as popular a team to look at in that regard as any. Are the Trail Blazers the answer? Can they crash the party? Here are four factors to consider:

Red hot play: On Feb. 5 the Blazers lost at Detroit to drop to 29-25. They were on a fast road to nowhere and were touch and go to make the playoffs - that's a .537 win percentage, and Minnesota is holding down the last spot at .560 as I write this. But then something changed - in a big way. Since then they have gone 17-3, with a 13-game winning streak that was broken by Houston on March 20 - 17-4, really, but we can't worry too much about a loss at Memphis on the backend of two games in two nights when Lillard went home to see his child being born instead of playing. They beat up on some bad teams over that stretch, but they also beat Golden State twice and Oklahoma City and Cleveland once each.

So, what changed? In a word, the offense. They started taking more threes and getting smarter in the threes they were taking - avoiding bad shots and patiently setting up good ones. Dame Lillard vaulted his game to a whole new level offensively, and his pick and roll efficiency has been other-worldly. They are being more aggressive, looking to set up the shots they want to take instead of taking those that were being left for them by the defense. In short, they are playing with swagger, and it has translated to some incredible play. They averaged 112 points per game over the course of the 13-game winning streak, which is a level of offensive efficiency only Golden State, Houston and Toronto can match this year. Swagger sounds like a small thing, but it really isn't in this case. With two guards like this team has they should be a dangerous offense - at least a creative one. But through December they were just 27th in the league in offensive efficiency. This was a broken offense, but not because of a lack of tools. The change has come about largely because they remembered what they capable of again.

After losing to Houston they fell again to Boston, but then got right back on track with big wins at Oklahoma City (to sweep the four-game season series) and New Orleans. That proved that they are resilient, and still have some magic. They have only seven games left, so there isn't a lot of fear that they peaked too soon. What they are doing is working the best it has in years in Portland, and heading into the playoffs that is a good place to be.

Nurkic: Beyond the backcourt, Jusuf Nurkic has perhaps been the biggest key to this turnaround. He is playing very efficient basketball - 14.6 points and 10.3 boards in just 24.3 minutes. And he is defensively so sound. He takes care of the paint, allowing others to go out and challenge shooters. That makes this team tougher than all but two teams to shoot against from deep.

Playoff path: So, they are hot, they have a potent backcourt, and the offense is flying. Can they do some playoff damage? No - unless you have a narrow definition of damage. Unless they falter badly they will finish third, and they have a very manageable series against a flawed team in the opening round. They should win that - though avoiding both Oklahoma City and Utah would make that more likely. But then reality sets in. To win the West, they - and any other team - would have to go through both Golden State and Houston. Beating one is almost impossible. Beating both just isn't happening. For as good as this team is playing, and how good their guards are, they don't have the tools in a seven-game series to beat the two best teams in the West - or the two best in the East, for that matter.

Portland is playing like they are at the top of the second tier of teams right now, and I don't have any problem with proclaiming that. But the gap between the second tier and the small first tier right now is so massive it can't be quantified. Unless Steph Curry is out, Kevin Durant is hobbled and James Harden breaks his leg, what this team can do just isn't good enough. But that's okay. That's just the reality, and it gives them two choices - content yourself with being a 50-win regular-season team that plays two playoff rounds, or find a way to join the arms race while Lillard is still in his prime.

Odds: The futures odds tell the same story that I just have. Golden State is still favored at BetOnline to win the West despite their injury woes - they are at -110. Houston is at +125. Oklahoma City is next but incredibly far back at +1600, with Portland fourth at +2000. If I was setting the odds I would probably reverse the last two, but that is irrelevant - both teams need to get past both of the top two teams in all likelihood to win the West, and that's just not happening. The teams could be at +16000 and +20000 and it still wouldn't be a great bet.

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Start:	November 23, 2024 @ 3:30 PM
Expert:	Scott Spreitzer
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Expert NBA Handicapping: Are Portland Trail Blazers a Contender?

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