Expert MLB Handicapping: Are Atlanta Braves Legit After Hot Start?

by Trevor Whenham - 5/3/2018

Things are getting a little crazy in Atlanta. On Thursday afternoon the Braves absolutely humiliated the Mets, winning 11-0 for their fifth straight victory. That moved them to 19-11 and gave them a game and a half lead in the NL East. Only the Arizona Diamondbacks have a better winning percentage in the entire National League. It's a great start for any team, but for one like the Braves it is kind of amazing.

The Braves won their division in 2013, but they had a losing season the next year and then went into full rebuilding mode, winning 67, 68 and 72 games, respectively, in three painful seasons. Alex Anthopolous, who turned around the Blue Jays, is now in charge as GM, so the team is in good hands and making good moves. But this is team that has had to reinvent themselves entirely, and it really seemed like they still had a whole lot of work to do. They haven't proven anything yet - it has only been 30 games, so a lot of baseball is left. Five of the six teams that were in first place on May 2 of last year, though, went on to make the playoffs - only the White Sox didn't - so this is an important foundation to the season that Atlanta is building here. So, how are they doing it? And can they keep it up? Here's a look:

Expectations: Frankly, there weren't many coming into the season. I wrote in a season preview that they were moving in the right direction but that it was going to be a long road. The season win total at the start of spring training of 74.5 reflected that, showing moderate improvement over last year, but still being a long way from relevant. Yet after 19 wins in their first 30 games they not only need to win 56 of their final 132 - a .424 winning percentage, which is basically the same rate as they posted for their whole lousy 2016 season. So, it would take a really epic collapse for them to not go over at this point.

Schedule: The Braves haven't been beating up on weaklings to get to where they are, either. They have played two series against both the Nationals and Mets, and they are a combined 8-4 against them. They've taken four of six from the Phillies, beaten the Cubs, and won a series at Colorado. The only bad team they have played is Cincinnati.

Youth: This is a crazy young team at the core - and that plays so well for them over the next few years. Ozzie Albies was the youngest player in the majors entering the season even though he was entering his second year. He was solid at the plate as a rookie and has been significantly better this year. His reign as league baby didn't last long, though. Mega-prospect Ronald Acuna Jr. came up after starting in the minors to keep his service time under control, and he has been everything the team could have hoped. And then the team called up starting pitcher Mike Soroka, a rare major leaguer from my home town of Calgary who came up through the same little league program my son plays in, and he was stellar in his start while becoming the league's youngest pitcher and second-youngest player after Acuna. Three incredible talents, and only one of them can buy a drink legally. And they aren't the only young guys. Shortstop Dansby Swanson and third baseman Johan Camargo are both only 24, and Soroka is one of seven pitchers on the 40-man roster who is 26 or younger.

This team has plenty of room left to grow. To rebuild in this league you need to get in position to pick up young talent in the draft and elsewhere and then get lucky with them. The Braves sure seem to be doing well on that front.

Offense: The offense has been the story so far. Led by potential career years from veterans Freddie Freeman and Nick Markakis, a crazy start from Acuna, and strong production up and down the lineup, the team leads the league in runs scored and several other offensive categories. It's an impressive start. It probably isn't sustainable at this level, but they could falter significantly from where they are and still be okay.

The Astros: You almost can't look at this team and not compare them to the Astros in 2015. A well-run and successful organization that had to tear it all down and rebuild from scratch. A handful of freakish young players announcing their presence in the majors at a young age. Young-but-established major leaguers finding their game and stepping up their production. The Astros made the playoffs as a wild card in 2015 and lost to the Royals in the ALDS. The next year they took a step back and missed the playoffs, but then they had a championship season, and they are poised to be a top contender for years. That is obviously the best-case scenario, and probably too much for this team this year, but things are bright for the Braves right now regardless. The trick, though, is to keep the foot on the accelerator and keep pushing so that your peak isn't like the Pirates - never quite good enough.

The odds: As exciting as this start is, and as good as the team has been, the oddsmakers aren't giving the team any respect as a real contender yet. They still sit at +7000 to win the World Series at Bovada . That ranks them just 20th in the league and well behind 19^th -ranked Seattle at +5000.

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Start:	November 22, 2024 @ 11:59 PM
Expert:	Arun Shiva (Indian Cowboy)
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Expert MLB Handicapping: Are Atlanta Braves Legit After Hot Start?

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