Expert MLB Betting Advice: Season Hit Totals Props

by Trevor Whenham - 3/29/2018

We have already looked at individual player season totals for pitcher wins and for home runs. Now, with opening day here, it makes sense to finish off by looking at individual hit totals. The guys who pile up big hits don't get the attention that sluggers do in a lot of cases because they aren't flashy. But they are so very important - and typically more consistent and predictable than sluggers, which is handy for our purposes here. Here is a look at seven interesting season hit totals from BetOnline .

Charlie Blackmon, Colorado ("Over/Under" 174.5): We start off with what feels like an easy one. Actually, most of these feel fairly easy - which may or may not be a good thing. There isn't a player in baseball that I like to watch hit more than Blackmon. He's methodical and ruthless, and he combines a killer eye with scary power. An all-around terror for opposing pitchers. He led the majors with 213 hits last year, and that doesn't feel like much of a fluke at all. He had 187 in just 143 games the year before and 176 and 171, respectively, the two years before that. He is a strong and consistent hitter, and he is going to get his pitches because this Colorado lineup has too many ways to hurt you for pitchers to get too cute. He's only 31, so there is plenty of life left in him. Take the easy over.

Jose Altuve, Houston (o/u 192.5): The reigning MVP led the American League last year with 204 hits. And that was his fourth straight year with 200 or more hits. So, all this prop is really asking is if you think Altuve is going to stay healthy. He's only 27, and he has been a total workhorse to date, so I have few concerns there. I guess you could be nervous about a World Series hangover or about carrying the burden of his massive new contract. Not for me, though - not this guy. The over is at -135, but there is still value at that price.

Francisco Lindor, Cleveland (o/u 172.5): Lindor has 178 and 182 hits in his two full seasons, so the guy can obviously hit. He moved into the leadoff spot last summer and really took to it, so the fact he has claimed that spot out of the gate this year is a positive. The over at -135 is no bargain, but he's young and wildly talented, and he's on a very good team, so there is no avoiding it. If you don't take the over then pass on him.

Dee Gordon, Seattle (o/u 164.5): Gordon had 201 hits last year, and 205 in 2015, so he is more than capable of blowing this number away. There are a couple of major considerations, though. First, he has dealt with some injuries, so he might not be able to stay healthy. And, more significantly, he is moving to the American League for the first time, so he needs to get used to a whole new set of pitchers and parks. He's going to play a lot in center field, though, and the Mariners are a decent team who have committed to him. I like the over.

Kris Bryant, Chicago Cubs (o/u 157.5): Bryant had a bit of a down year in Year 3 of his career in 2017, but he was still more than solid - he had 162 hits. He's a strong hitter who is committed this year to being more patient and striking out less. That will help his hit totals. He had 176 hits in his stellar 2016 campaign, and he and his team should be strong out of the gate this year. Continuing on a strong trend, I am happy to take the over here.

Manny Machado, Baltimore (o/u 164.5): Finally an under worth taking. Machado had a down year in terms of hits last year with just 163. I think that that could easily repeat itself. The Orioles are a total mess, and Machado is going to be asked to do a whole lot - while having to deal with constant trade speculation and general negativity around the team. I wouldn't bet my house on it, but the under is the right place to be.

Corey Seager, Los Angeles Dodgers (o/u 162.5): The over is favored at -125 here, and that should be no surprise. After having 193 hits to win rookie of the year in 2016, he took a bit of a step back with 159 last year. He missed some time, though, and for long portions of the season his back wasn't right. He seems healthier now, and he certainly has both talent and youth. He's taking a step forward. Over.

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Start:	November 23, 2024 @ 10:07 PM
Expert:	Vernon Croy
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Expert MLB Betting Advice: Season Hit Totals Props

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