Daily Expert MLB Picks: Tuesday, May 29, 2018, Opening Line Report

by Alan Matthews - 5/28/2018

Monday was the Memorial Day holiday in the USA. Many consider that the unofficial start of summer and the first time it's really worthwhile to look at the MLB standings because we should largely know what teams are by this point. Since the start of wild-card play in 1995, around 60 percent of teams leading their division on Memorial Day made the playoffs. Last year Memorial Day fell on May 29, and five of the six teams leading their division did play extra baseball: Yankees (wild card), Twins (wild card), Astros (won AL West), Nationals (won NL East) and Rockies (wild card). The only Memorial Day division leader to miss was Milwaukee, which held a 1.5-game lead over the Cubs in the NL Central at the time, but the Cubs would repeat on the Central. They had the worst record on Memorial Day 2017 (25-25) of any team to make the postseason.

White Sox at Indians ( -245, 9.5 )

First pitch of the night at 6:10 p.m. ET. The Tribe have lost arguably the best setup man in baseball, lefty Andrew Miller, to the disabled list with knee inflammation. That's apparently been bothering him all season, and Miller missed time earlier with a left hamstring strain. It's Mike Clevinger on the bump for Cleveland. Clevinger (3-2, 3.32) lost to the Astros on Thursday, allowing a season-high five runs over 5.1 innings. He hasn't faced the White Sox this season. Jose Abreu is 3-for-8 with a homer against him. Chicago might have to think about sending Lucas Giolito to the bullpen or minors if the former highly-touted prospect gets roughed up again. Giolito (3-5, 7.53) was crushed for seven runs in just 1.1 innings in his last start vs. Baltimore. White Sox manager Rick Renteria says he's committed to the 23-year-old, but it might not be Renteria's decision. This will be his first career look at Cleveland.

Key trends: The Sox are 1-6 in Giolito's past seven vs. teams with a winning record. The Tribe are 6-1 in Clevinger's past seven vs. teams with a losing record. The "over/under" has gone under in six of Giolito's seven on the road.

Early lean: Indians on runline and under.

Nationals at Orioles (+104, 9.5)

Washington adds the designated hitter for the Battle of the Beltway. Of course, the two big free agents this winter, the Nationals' Bryce Harper and Orioles' Manny Machado, will share the field. I think a Doc's-affiliated sportsbook should do a prop on which guy gets more money next winter (think I may request that actually). It's Dylan Bundy for Baltimore. Bundy (3-6, 4.45) struck out a career-high 14 last time out in the second complete game of his career, allowing two runs and three hits vs. the White Sox. He joined Erik Bedard and Mike Mussina as the only Orioles with 14 Ks in complete game in last 50 years. He beat the Nats in his only start against them in 2016. Harper is 0-for-2 against him. Machado is 4-for-16 with two doubles career off Washington's Jeremy Hellickson (1-0. 2.13), who spent the second half of last season with the Orioles. They acquired him from Philadelphia. Just the one decision in seven starts so far in 2018. Adam Jones (.364, 4 HRs) hits him well.

Key trends: The Orioles are 5-1 in Bundy's past six on four days of rest. The under is 5-1 in Hellickson's past six and 4-0 in Bundy's past four interleague matchups.

Early lean: Orioles and under.

Astros at Yankees (+112, 9)

I don't know if you could even wager on Houston's Charlie Morton (7-0, 2.04) to win the Cy Young back in the spring, but I'm sure it was at quite long odds if so. Then again, he might only be the third-best starter on his own staff. His last two starts were both wins against the Indians. Morton dominated the Yankees on April 30, allowing one run with 10 strikeouts in 7.2 innings. Giancarlo Stanton is 9-for-21 with a homer and seven strikeouts career against him. Yankees lefty CC Sabathia (2-1, 3.55) comes off his worst outing of the season, surrendering seven runs in 4.1 innings of a no-decision at Texas. Sabathia was great to start the year but is 0-1 with an 8.78 ERA in his last three starts. He missed Houston in the earlier series. Jose Altuve is 2-for-6 with two RBIs off Sabathia.

Key trends: The Astros are 6-2 in Morton's past eight road starts vs. teams with a winning record. The Yanks are 2-5 in Sabathia's past seven on Tuesday. The under is 6-1 in Morton's previous seven vs. the AL East.

Early lean: Astros and under.

Mets at Braves (TBA)

Stellar Atlanta rookie Ronald Acuna was removed from Sunday's game vs. Boston after he hyperextended his knee while crossing first base. He walked off the field under his own power but was sent to the hospital and is on the DL with a mild ACL sprain. That could thus have an effect on the NL Rookie of the Year race, although that's pretty good news. Acuna is hitting .265 with five homers and 13 RBIs. He was called up late last month. The Braves go with Anibal Sanchez (1-0, 1.29) here. He was basically signed off the scrap heap but has been solid in three outings, two of them starts. He hasn't pitched, though, since April 13 due to a right hamstring injury. He was hurt simply running in the outfield during a pregame workout. Only a freaking baseball player. Mets lefty Steven Matz (2-3, 3.80) shut out the Brewers on four hits over six last Thursday. He hasn't faced Atlanta in 2018. Freddie Freeman is 4-for-13 off him with a double.

Key trends: The Mets are 5-1 in Matz's past six vs. the Braves. The under is 11-2 in his previous 13 road starts vs. teams with a winning record.

Early lean: TBA has Sanchez hasn't been made official yet.

Blue Jays at Red Sox (-180, 9.5)

Monitor the status of Boston outfielder and AL MVP candidate Mookie Betts. He sat out Sunday with left side tightness, and if it's an oblique injury could be headed for the disabled list. Betts, who sat Monday, leads the AL in average (.359) and homers (17) and is among the leaders with 37 RBIs and 13 steals. If you held a fantasy draft today, he'd have to be the No. 1 pick. The Sox start Rick Porcello (6-2, 3.74). His ERA has risen from 2.14 in his past four outings. He was slammed for six runs in 3.2 innings last time out at Tampa Bay. He took a ND in Toronto (7 IP, 3 ER) on April 24. Josh Donaldson is a career .308 hitter off him in 39 at-bats. The Jays' Marco Estrada (2-5, 5.40) has given up at least four runs in six of his past eight outings. He's 0-2 with a 7.36 ERA this year vs. Boston. Dustin Pedroia hits .452 against him in 31 at-bats.

Key trends: The Jays are 0-8 in Estrada's past eight vs. Boston. The Sox are 5-1 in Porcello's past six at home vs. Toronto. The over is 7-2 in Estrada's past nine on Tuesday.

Early lean: Red Sox and over.

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Daily Expert MLB Picks: Tuesday, May 29, 2018, Opening Line Report

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