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Daily Expert MLB Picks: Thursday, May 10, 2018, Opening Line Report


by - 5/9/2018

cody bellinger los angeles dodgers

If you read this column daily, you know the drill: Any time a pitcher throws a no-hitter, I have to lead with his next start in the hopes we see consecutive no-hitters for the second time in MLB history. Except, this wouldn't really be the same. That's because Dodgers highly-touted rookie Walker Buehler lasted just six no-hit innings in Mexico last Friday. L.A. isn't going to ruin this prized arm - Buehler also had Tommy John surgery three years ago not long after being a first-round pick - by allowing him to throw 125 pitches or something just for a no-no. So, he and three relievers did the deed, the 23rd all-time no-hitter in Dodgers history. That's by far the most in the majors, but it was the team's first combined no-no. Incidentally, it was the 10th all-time against the Padres, also the most in the majors. San Diego remains the only active franchise to never have one of its pitchers throw a no-no.

Giants at Phillies ( -136, 9 )

The lone matinee of the day at 1:05 p.m. ET as the teams wrap up their series. It's also only available to be seen on Facebook Live. The Giants got a bit more bad injury news in that oft-injured outfielder Hunter Pence has been pulled his off his rehab assignment with recurring soreness in his right thumb. Fellow outfielder Mac Williamson suffered a concussion nearly two weeks ago when he crashed into a side wall and isn't close to playing. It's lefty Ty Blach (3-3, 3.60) for the Giants here. He went a season-high 7.2 innings last time out in a win over the Braves with a whopping 17 ground-ball outs and allowed just one earned. Blach definitely pitches to contact. Philadelphia's Vince Velasquez (2-4, 5.14) ended a three-game skid with an upset win in Washington on Saturday, surrendering a run over five. No Giant has more than three at-bats against him.

Key trends: The Giants are 2-7 in Blach's past nine on the road. The Phillies are 4-12 in Velasquez's past 16 at home. The "over/under" is 6-1 in Blach's past seven vs. the NL East. It's 6-2 in Velasquez's past eight overall.

Early lean: Phillies and over.

Red Sox at Yankees (-134, 9)

MLB Network game as these two conclude arguably the best series of the early season. This was to be Rick Porcello, but he was moved up to Wednesday with David Price's latest injury. Needless to say, if the Price problem is serious, the Yankees suddenly become AL East favorites. You know which MLB pitcher has had the greatest return of investment this season at +600? Boston lefty and Thursday starter Eduardo Rodriguez (3-0, 5.29). The Sox have won all six of his starts even though Rodriguez has allowed five runs in each of the past two. He hasn't seen the Yankees this year. Gary Sanchez is 3-for-9 off him with a homer. Lefty CC Sabathia (2-0, 1.39), who says he would probably retire if the Yankees win the World Series, blanked the Indians on three hits over six in his last outing. He hasn't seen Boston this year but has won five straight starts vs. the Red Sox dating to September 2016. Hanley Ramirez is just 2-for-22 against him. Xander Bogaerts 4-for-28.

Key trends: The Yanks are 5-1 in Sabathia's past six at home vs. Boston. The under is 12-3-1 in his previous six in the series. The under is 7-2 in Rodriguez's past nine vs. New York.

Early lean: Yankees and under.

Royals at Orioles (+103, 10)

Two teams who will certainly be active ahead of this summer's deadline in terms of selling off players, specifically Mike Moustakas and Manny Machado. One of the bad contracts that helped lead to the Royals' downfall was given to Ian Kennedy (1-3, 2.92). He's owed $33 million combined over the next two seasons and is essentially untradeable. Well, unless he keeps pitching like last Friday vs. Detroit in which Kennedy threw six shutout innings. It was the fourth time in seven starts that Kennedy has pitched six innings and allowed one run or fewer. Machado is 2-for-3 career off him. Baltimore's Chris Tillman (1-5, 9.24) is probably pitching for his job Thursday as he has been terrible except for a start April 27 vs. Detroit. Tillman lasted all of one inning last time out vs. the Angels, giving up seven runs. Moustakas and Salvador Perez are both 6-for-16 against Tillman with a homer.

Key trends: The Orioles are 1-4 in Tillman's past five against the Royals. The under is 9-1 in Kennedy's past 10.

Early lean: Orioles and under.

Mariners at Blue Jays (-165, 9)

Toronto, no-hit Tuesday by Seattle's James Paxton, is going to be without closer Roberto Osuna for a while. MLB placed him on administrative leave following his arrest Tuesday morning in Toronto for assaulting a woman. We may not see him for a while unless these allegations are bogus. Jays lefty J.A. Happ (4-2, 3.67) on Friday suffered his first loss since the season opener, allowing three runs in 5.2 innings at Tampa Bay. Happ pitched for Seattle in 2015. Nelson Cruz is 10-for-22 against him but hasn't homered. The Mariners' Mike Leake (3-3, 6.28) has been maybe the worst pitcher in the AL over the past few weeks, going 1-3 with an 8.70 ERA in his last four starts. He's 1-1, 2.40 ERA in two starts vs. the Blue Jays in his career but hasn't seen them in four years. Russell Martin has faced him plenty, going 10-for-32 with a homer and six RBIs.

Key trends: The Jays are 4-0 in Happ's previous four vs. Seattle. The over is 6-1 in Leake's past seven. It's 3-1-2 in Happ's past six.

Early lean: Jays and over.

Reds at Dodgers (-216, 7.5)

ESPN+ game. Buehler's combined no-no was the second no-hitter of the season (Oakland's Sean Manaea; then Seattle's James Paxton had a third Tuesday) after just one in both 2016 & '17. There were seven in 2015! The previous Dodgers no-hitter prior to Friday came from Clayton Kershaw on June 18, 2014 vs. the Rockies. Buehler's no-no was the first ever outside the USA or Canada. The Dodgers originally were only going to keep Buehler (2-0, 1.13) up for a start or two, but he has been so impressive that he's here to stay - albeit likely on an innings limit of around 150 this year when also including his time in the minors. It's the 23-year-old Buehler's first look at the Reds, just as it is 23-year-old Reds rookie Tyler Mahle's first look at L.A. - where he's from. Mahle (2-4, 4.35) is working on a string of three straight quality outings. He has given up a worrisome nine homers in seven starts but has an impressive 42 strikeouts.

Key trends: The Reds are 1-5 in Mahle's past six vs. teams with a losing record. The under is 8-2-1 in his past 11 overall.

Early lean: Dodgers and under.

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