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Daily Expert MLB Picks: Thursday, June 7, 2018, Opening Line Report


by - 6/6/2018

Houston Astros Pitcher Gerrit Cole

If this were the day after the NFL or NBA Draft, we'd be talking about early Rookie of the Year odds. However, the Major League Baseball amateur draft is easily the biggest crapshoot of them all. The vast majority of the guys taken will not sniff the majors. The Detroit Tigers picked first on Monday - only because Pablo Sandoval hit a walkoff homer on the final day of the 2017 season to drop the Giants to the No. 2 overall pick - and took Auburn pitcher Casey Mize, the consensus No. 1 overall prospect but far from a sure thing like a Stephen Strasburg. There are very rare occasions where a guy might debut the same year he's drafted - Chris Sale did out of the White Sox bullpen - but that's the exception to the rule. For financial reasons and to hold Mize's rights as long as possible before free agency, Tigers fans shouldn't expect to see him before next September at the earliest and that's only if he utterly dominates minor-league ball until then. More likely, Mize won't debut until 2020. Last year's top pick, high school shortstop Royce Lewis by the Twins, is still in A ball but does look like he will be a good player. Obviously, high schoolers take even longer. We could start seeing guys from the top of the 2016 draft being called up soon. A few guys from 2015 (Dansby Swanson, Alex Bregman, Andrew Benintendi, Ian Happ and Walker Buehler to name five) already are established major leaguers.

Dodgers at Pirates ( -131, 8 )

MLB Network game at 12:35 p.m. ET. The Dodgers are ravaged by injury in the rotation, so last week they called up 22-year-old Dominican Dennis Santana, one of the franchise's top pitching prospects, from Triple-A, where he had a 2.54 ERA this season. He debuted with 3.2 innings of relief at Colorado on Friday and was roughed up for five runs and six hits but will get his first big-league start here. Obviously, no Pirates have seen him in the Show yet. Pittsburgh's Jameson Taillon (3-4, 3.97) comes off eight shutout innings in St. Louis on Friday for his first win since April 8. Taillon has a 9.00 ERA in two career starts vs. L.A. Chris Taylor is 3-for-3 off him and Justin Turner 2-for-5.

Key trends: The Pirates are 6-2 in Taillon's past eight vs. the NL West. The "over/under" has gone under in 10 of his past 15 overall.

Early lean: Dodgers and under.

White Sox at Twins (-209, 9)

A 1:10 p.m. start time. The Sox start James Shields. He was terrible in 2017 and is just 1-6 with a 4.48 ERA in 76.1 innings this season but is at least back to eating innings and thus teams are calling Chicago for a potential trade. The Sox wouldn't get much other than salary relief. Shields has thrown four straight quality starts of at least seven innings but didn't win any of them. His lone victory was on Opening Day in Kansas City. Shields took a ND on May 6 vs the Twins (6.2 IP, 3 ER). Brian Dozier is a .316 hitter off Shields with four homers and 10 RBIs in 38 at-bats. Minnesota's Jose Berrios (6-5, 3.86) had a string of three straight quality starts end Friday when he allowed four runs over six innings in a win over Cleveland. He's 2-0 with a 2.77 ERA in two starts this year vs. Chicago. Jose Abreu is 3-for-15 with a homer against him.

Key trends: The Twins are 5-1 in Berrios' past six vs. the White Sox. The under is 4-1 in Shields' previous five against Minnesota.

Early lean: Twins on runline and under.

Marlins at Cardinals (-202, 8.5)

ESPN+ game with a first pitch of 1:15 p.m. ET. Marlins rookie Elieser Hernandez (0-3, 4.29) has made six appearances, four starts, in 2018, and his worst was Friday at Arizona where the Venezuelan was knocked out after surrendering five runs and three homers in five innings. Manager Don Mattingly said it was the first time Hernandez has lacked command this season. He hasn't faced St. Louis. The Cards' Miles Mikolas (6-1, 2.49) suffered his first loss of the season Friday vs. Pittsburgh but allowed just two runs over six innings. In seven out of 11 starts this season Mikolas has allowed two runs or fewer while going at least six innings. It's his first look at the Marlins.

Key trends: The Cards are 5-0 in Mikolas' past five vs. teams with a losing record. The under is 7-2 in St. Louis' previous nine home games.

Early lean: Marlins on runline and over.

Tigers at Red Sox (-190, 9.5)

ESPN game. Detroit lefty Matthew Boyd (3-4, 3.23) comes off a no-decision vs. the Blue Jays on Saturday, giving up four runs and six hits over seven. He allowed two homers; Boyd hadn't given up a dinger since April 25. He's still among AL leaders with a .207 batting average against. The only Red Sox with more than four at-bats off him is Mitch Moreland, who is 4-for-11 with two doubles and a homer. Boston southpaw Drew Pomeranz (1-3, 6.81) was set to pitch here but then landed on the DL Tuesday. Maybe that's why he has been terrible in 2018. So, it will be Jalen Beeks making his big-league debut. The southpaw wasn't considered a great prospect as a 12th -round pick four years ago but had as 2.56 ERA in 10 Triple-A starts this year and is generally considered the franchise's No. 5 overall prospect now.

Key trends: The Tigers are 1-8 in Boyd's past nine on the road. The under is 5-2 in his previous seven.

Early lean: Tigers on runline and over.

Astros at Rangers (+180, 9.5)

Looks to be the pitching matchup of the night and Cole vs. Cole. Houston's Gerrit Cole (6-1, 2.20) has been just mortal of late, going back-to-back starts of seven innings and three runs allowed, albeit on just nine combined hits. Batters are hitting a scant .171 against Cole, who has struck out 116 in 81.2 innings. He's 1-0 with a 1.93 ERA and 25 strikeouts in 14 innings this year vs. Texas. Joey Gallo is 2-for-6 with two solo homers against him. Adrian Beltre 0-for-8. Rangers lefty Cole Hamels (3-5, 3.63) has really boosted his trade value with five straight quality starts. He has made three starts against the Astros in 2018 and is 1-1 with a 2.55 ERA and .194 batting average allowed against them. Evan Gattis hits .323 off him with three homers in 31 at-bats. Carlos Correa is just 2-for-21.

Key trends: The Rangers are 1-7 in Hamels' past eight at home. The under is 5-1 in his past six vs. Houston.

Early lean: Rangers and under.

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