Daily Expert MLB Picks: Saturday, March 31, 2018, Opening Line Report

by Alan Matthews - 3/30/2018

Look, I don't pretend to know all that goes into making the annual MLB schedule. Every team has requests, and you have certain times that stadiums might be booked for a concert or whatever. That said, why is MLB staging late-March game in cities like Cincinnati and Detroit? Already, one game has been postponed in each city. Yeah, I lived near both: It's crappy this time of year! Try to make the first week or so of games played in all warm-weather cities (every West Division club, Atlanta, Miami and Tampa Bay) or those with domes (Toronto and Milwaukee). I count exactly 15 that would meet the criteria, which is half the league. Just saying.

Cardinals at Mets ( -130, 7.5 )

A 1:10 p.m. ET first pitch. The Cardinals made an interesting move on Thursday, signing free-agent closer Greg Holland. He was an All-Star last year with the Rockies and tied for the NL lead with 41 saves but was largely bombed in the second half. He lost some money by turning down Colorado's qualifying offer as this is just a one-year deal for about $14 million. Holland will need a little time facing minor-leaguers before the Cards bring him to big club. Closer was one major question mark on the team. The Cards start Michael Wacha (12-9, 4.13). The only shutout and complete game of his career was last July at the Mets, a three-hitter with eight strikeouts. Jay Bruce might as well be blindfolded when facing Wacha, going 1-for-28 with 12 strikeouts. New York's Jacob deGrom (15-10, 3.53) set career highs in starts (31), innings (201.1) and strikeouts (239) last year. He was 2-0 with a 3.29 ERA vs. St. Louis.

Key trends: The Cards are 4-1 in Wacha's past five vs. the Mets. The "over/under" is 5-2 in deGrom's past seven at home.

Early lean: Mets and under.

Astros at Rangers (+178, 9.5)

Fox Sports 1 telecast at 4:05 p.m. ET. Some national experts like young Astros right-hander Lance McCullers Jr. to win the AL Cy Young this season. Great young pitcher and an All-Star last year, but not sure I'd go that far yet. He was 7-4 with a 4.22 ERA in 22 starts, missing a bit of time injured. McCullers was solid in the postseason with a 2.61 ERA in 20.2 innings. He won Game 3 of the World Series vs. the Dodgers. McCullers didn't get a decision in two outings vs. Texas with a 4.22 ERA. Elvis Andrus is 6-for-11 off him with three doubles. The Rangers acquired lefty Matt Moore from San Francisco this offseason in essentially a salary dump. Moore was one of the worst NL pitchers in 2017 with a 6-15 record and 5.52 ERA. The stuff is there, though. Moore is 3-0 with a 1.42 ERA in three career starts against Houston. Jose Altuve is 3-for-8 with a homer off Moore.

Key trends: The Astros are 3-8 in McCullers' past 11 starts. The over is 8-2-1 in his past 11.

Early lean: Rangers on runline and over.

Cubs at Marlins (+213, 8.5)

Looking for a decent longer-shot guy to win the NL Cy Young? I give you new Cub Yu Darvish. Yes, the last memory we all have of Darvish was him getting crushed in both World Series starts vs. Houston, but he apparently was tipping his pitches. Darvish had been excellent before that with L.A. after coming over via trade from Texas. He's still fairly new to most National Leaguers and is now another year removed from Tommy John surgery - both positives. The Cubs weren't heavily after him but got him at a discount they couldn't refuse. Darvish's last start as a Ranger last year was in Miami, and he was routed for 10 runs in 3.2 innings in his worst career outing. The Marlins' Odrisamer Despaigne was 2-3 with a 4.01 ERA in 58.1 innings last year. The 30-year-old Cuban pitched well this spring. The Cubs' Kris Bryant is 1-for-3 off him with a homer.

Key trends: The Cubs are 25-5 in their past 30 road games vs. a right-hander. The under is 5-2 in Despaigne's past seven.

Early lean: Cubs on runline and under.

White Sox at Royals (-118, 8.5)

One of the most impressive young pitchers in the Cactus League this spring was the White Sox's Lucas Giolito, the prize of the Adam Eaton trade to Washington. Giolito's star had faded a bit, which is why the Nationals felt OK trading their former top prospect two winters ago. But the Sox tinkered with his delivery and it showed in Triple-A last season and then in 45.1 late-season innings, going 3-3 with a 2.38 ERA and 34 strikeouts. He was 1-0 with a 1.35 ERA in two starts vs. the Royals. Giolito then had a Cactus League ERA of 2.04 this spring with 17 strikeouts in 17 innings. The Royals are going to stink, even more so for the first 4-6 weeks with All-Star catcher Salvador Perez sidelined with an MCL tear suffered while carrying luggage. Only a baseball player! He hit .268 with career-bests of 27 homers and 80 RBIs last season. Veteran Ian Kennedy takes the bump for K.C. He was one of the AL's worst pitchers in 2017 with a 5-13 record and 5.38 ERA.

Key trends: The Royals are 3-7 in their past 10 following an off day. The over is 6-1 in Kennedy's past seven at home.

Early lean: White Sox and over.

Brewers at Padres (+113, 8)

Second game on Fox Sports 1. Love what the rising Brewers did offensively this offseason in trading for Christian Yelich and signing Lorenzo Cain, giving Milwaukee one of the best offensive outfields in the majors. Still not sure the Brewers have enough pitching, though. Surprised they didn't sign one of Yu Darvish (reportedly were in on him), Jake Arrieta or Lance Lynn. It's lefty Brent Suter on the mound here. He was sent down and brought up four different times last year and finished 3-2 with a 3.42 ERA in the majors. He has never faced the Padres. The Friars' Luis Perdomo is one of the top ground-ball pitchers in the majors, leading the NL in ground-ball rate in 2017. He was 8-11 with a 4.67 ERA. Perdomo was 0-1 with a 3.75 ERA in two starts vs. the Brewers. Yelich is 2-for-8 off him.

Key trends: The Brewers are 2-6 in Suter's past eight on the road. The under is 5-2-1 in those eight.

Early lean: Padres and under.

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Daily Expert MLB Picks: Saturday, March 31, 2018, Opening Line Report

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