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Daily Expert MLB Picks: Friday, April 13, 2018, Opening Line Report


by - 4/12/2018

Washington Nationals starting pitcher Tanner Roark

As expected, the 2020 MLB All-Star Game has been awarded to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Even though Dodger Stadium is a legendary park with spectacular scenery, it's only the second time the park will host the game, with the first way back in 1980. Since then, every current MLB team has hosted it at least once other than the Tampa Bay Rays in their crappy Tropicana Field. The game will be in Washington D.C. this year (with hopes Bryce Harper will finally compete in the Home Run Derby) and at Cleveland's Progressive Field in 2019.

Braves at Cubs ( -235, TBA )

As will usually be the case on Fridays when the Cubs are home, this is the only matinee on the schedule and has a 2:20 p.m. ET first pitch on the MLB Network. It's the Wrigley Field debut for Yu Darvish (0-0, 5.23), at least for the Cubs. He pitched there in Game 3 of last year's NLCS with the Dodgers and beat the Cubbies, allowing one run and six hits over 6.1 innings. Darvish looked awful in his Chicago debut on March 31 in Miami but excellent last time out in Milwaukee (6 IP, 2H, 1 ER). Darvish has never faced Atlanta, although a few Braves have seen him elsewhere. Atlanta signed former Tigers right-hander Anibal Sanchez (0-0, 2.25) to a minor-league deal in mid-March, and he has been pretty solid in eight total innings, including one start. Chicago's Jason Heyward is 5-for-13 off him with a double. Ben Zobrist just 3-for-25.

Key trends: The Braves are 1-6 in the past seven meetings. The "over/under" has gone under in four straight Braves games vs. a righty. The under is 4-1 in the Cubs' past five at home vs. a righty.

Early lean: Cubs on runline.

Rockies at Nationals (-160, 9)

Good news/bad news for Washington as catcher Matt Wieters has been activated off the disabled list but center fielder Adam Eaton has landed on it. Eaton originally hurt his ankle last Thursday but tried playing through it for a while and it only got worse. There is no structural damage, but he might need a bit more than 10 days. In eight games, he is batting .345 with two home runs, five RBIs and 10 runs scored. It's Tanner Roark on the bump for the Nats. Roark (1-0, 4.50) dominated the Braves in his first start but allowed five runs over five last time out in his home debut vs. the Mets yet avoided a decision. Gerardo Parra has seen him more than any Rockies batter, going 5-for-14 with two doubles and a homer. Colorado's Kyle Freeland (0-2, 5.56) has been hurt by allowing two homers each in losses to Atlanta and San Diego. He has made one career start vs. Washington and won it, allowing three earned over five. Bryce Harper is 0-for-3 against him.

Key trends: The Rockies are 1-5 in Freeland's past six. The under is 10-3-1 in Roark's past 14.

Early lean: Nationals and over.

Blue Jays at Indians (-115, 8)

The Jays have lost designated hitter Kendrys Morales to the 10-day DL with a strained right hamstring. He was batting .227 with a homer and six RBIs in eight games. Toronto can use a few guys to DH in Morales' spot, among then Josh Donaldson (if his shoulder is bothering him at third), Steve Pearce or Yangervis Solarte. It's Marcus Stroman on the mound for the Blue Jays. He has not been good against the Yankees and Rangers, allowing nine earned in 9.2 innings with eight walks. In five career outings vs. Cleveland, he has a 2.17 ERA. Former Blue Jay Edwin Encarnacion is 2-for-5 off him with an RBI. The Tribe's Mike Clevinger (1-0, 0.71) is among the AL ERA leaders and held the Royals to a run last time out in 7.1 innings despite 10 hits and two walks. Only a couple of Jays have seen him.

Key trends: The Jays are 1-4 in Stroman's past five vs. the Indians. The under is 5-0 in his previous five against them.

Early lean: Indians and under.

Rangers at Astros (-218, 8.5)

Texas has placed second baseman Rougned Odor on the 10-day disabled list, and he's going to miss more than that with a left hamstring strain. Odor was hitting just .206 with four RBIs. The team can now put Jurickson Profar at second exclusively, which is where he belongs. Profar, who isn't hitting, either, has played almost everywhere this year. Sometimes that can affect a player's hitting. Then on Wednesday, shortstop Elvis Andrus broke his right elbow when hit by a pitch. So, he'll be on the DL for the first time in his career. It's lefty Cole Hamels (1-2, 5.06) for the Rangers, and it appears his days as an ace might be over. Hamels has yet to make it through six full innings in three starts. Opposing batters are hitting .636 against Hamels' four-seam fastball. He has made seven starts against Houston since joining the Rangers and is 3-2 with a 3.25 ERA against the Astros, who beat Hamels on Opening Day. Carlos Correa is just 2-for-17 off him with five Ks. Houston's Gerrit Cole (1-0, 0.64) has gone exactly seven innings in both starts and struck out 11 in each (including April 1 at Texas). No Ranger has more than five career at-bats vs. Cole.

Key trends: The Rangers have lost seven straight series openers. They are 5-2 in Hamels' previous seven vs. Houston. The under is 6-2-1 in his past nine overall.

Early lean: Astros and under.

Giants at Padres (+100, 8)

Kudos to the Giants for hanging around .500 with their No. 1 (Madison Bumgarner) and No. 3 pitchers (Jeff Samardzija) opening the season on the DL. Now, No. 2 Johnny Cueto has joined them. Cueto is dealing with a sprained ankle. One of San Diego's best hitters, Wil Myers, is eligible to come off the DL on Friday, but he's not close to ready with a nerve issue in his arm. It's lefty Ty Blach on the bump for the Giants. Blach (1-1, 4.11) has sandwiched two good starts around an awful one. He was 0-2 with a 3.32 ERA in 21.2 innings last year vs. the Friars. Austin Hedges is 2-for-6 against him with a double. San Diego's Tyson Ross (1-1, 5.25) has been about as solid as expected in going six innings in each start. He hasn't faced the Giants in a few years. Brandon Crawford is only 3-for-21 off Rose with six strikeouts. Andrew McCutchen is 2-for-8 with a dinger.

Key trends: The Giants are 0-4 in Blach's past four vs. San Diego. The under is 4-0 in those four.

Early lean: Padres and under.

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