College Basketball March Madness Betting Primer: Flaws for Each Top 10 Team

by Trevor Whenham - 2/27/2018

As this college basketball season has progressed I keep waiting for clarity. Typically as the calendar turns to a new year and we get deep into conference play we get a sense of which teams are legitimate contenders and which ones will have to be more of surprising underdogs once tournament season rolls around. But this year each of the Top 10 teams - and well beyond that - have real strengths that make them impressive, but they also have glaring issues that make it tough to go all in with your support of them. It is going to be one strange and completely wide-open tournament. Here's a look at the current Top 10 in the AP poll and the biggest concern surrounding each (odds to win the NCAA tournament are from BetOnline ):

1. Virginia (+650): This team is likely the only lock to be a No. 1 seed at this point. Their defense is ridiculously good, and it drives everything they do. The concern, though, is that if a team does get ahead then they could lack the firepower to get back. They foul a lot as well, which is fine as long as the defense is working, but that would again be an issue if a team solves their defense temporarily.

2. Michigan State (+450): Guard Cassius Winston isn't particularly athletic, and opponents can exploit that. The bigger issue here, though, might be off-court distractions. The pressure on Tom Izzo has been intense for weeks now and has only intensified with the leaks from the FBI. He's not handling questions gracefully, and he's getting lots of them. Surely it will be a distraction heading into the tournament.

3. Xavier (+2000): Xavier's worst enemy is themselves at times. I don't know if it's impatience, frustration or boredom, but at times they will refuse to use their shot clock and will rush shots without planning or looking for the best option. They can be forced into that, and it can set them back for long stretches. The better the teams they face in the tournament, the better the chances that teams will be able to consciously find ways to force Xavier into that. This is a team that has to maximize the talent they have, so they need to avoid the brain cramps.

4. Villanova (+450): This is a team that has lost three of their last six, and that's a serious concern for a very experienced squad heading down the stretch. Injuries have affected them and have exposed depth that isn't where you would expect a team like them to be.

5. Duke (+700): This is a solid defensive team when they are playing zone, but when they are forced to play man-to-man - or even worse, when they choose to do so - they are almost comically bad. Certainly they are far below a championship caliber when they aren't in a position to dictate their own defensive choices. They are just too big - or something - to be effective out of the zone, and that could haunt them.

6. Kansas (+1200): This team got on track late and did what they needed to do win their umpteenth straight Big 12 title. But they certainly aren't as scary or dominant as they have been in the past, and a big reason for that is that they have been built around a superstar player on the wing for so long as they just don't have it. When what makes a team great isn't around anymore the team has to adjust, and the way the Jayhawks have adjusted isn't entirely convincing.

7. Gonzaga (+2500): Yet again the biggest issue with the Bulldogs heading into the tournament is probably their conference. The WCC just doesn't offer a lot of competition in conference play, and the conference tournament is not much better, so the team is forced to take a massive step up in competition when the tournament begins. Mark Few is used to this by now, but some units are better suited to making the transition than others, and we don't really know how ready the teams will be ready for the step up until they make it - which is a serious headache for bettors.

8. Purdue (+800): They have some very good players on this team - as good as any team when it comes to winning games when it matters - but they lack a lot of depth. It means that they are forced to commit to what they are doing. If it's not working then they don't have the flexibility to adapt quickly. They are, for example, a big team. Squads that can go small and play fast can make things tough.

9. North Carolina (+1400): The Tar Heels are on a heck of a run lately, having won last year and lost in the finals the year before. And while the team is again within the Top 10 and poised to do well in the tournament, it would be hard to argue they are anywhere close in terms of firepower to the last two years. They still rebound great, but they are not nearly as tough as they were and can be knocked off their game with physical play. They still have some potent pieces - Luke Maye is probably the best player in the conference - but this sure doesn't feel like a team that is a dynasty in the making.

10. Cincinnati (+2000): This is a very athletic team, and they play so physical that they intimidate teams. If it comes down to a test of skill, though, then they are going to struggle to keep up. They rely more on what they have been given by genetics than what they have developed. It works well, but at some point it won't - and that point will likely come sooner than they would like

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College Basketball March Madness Betting Primer: Flaws for Each Top 10 Team

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