Betting Odds for Houston Astros to Repeat as World Series Champs with Expert Predictions

by Trevor Whenham - 3/21/2018

As is always the case, the Astros had barely even planned the World Series parade route yet before thoughts turned to whether they could do it again. Was this the beginning of a dynasty? Or were they going to crash back to earth as magnificently as they soared last year? Oddsmakers and bettors are reasonably optimistic but certainly aren't crowning them - at +550 they are narrowly the second choice behind the reloaded and wildly-public Yankees to win the World Series. So, the question is simple - can the Astros repeat as World Series champions? The answer, though, is less simple. Here are three good arguments on either side:

Yes, they can repeat because…

That pitching staff: This rotation is so good and so deep that it is laughable. They were already solid at the start of last year, with CY Young winner Dallas Keuchel leading the way. As insurance, though, they added Cy Young winner Justin Verlander at the last possible minute, and he certainly earned his money on the way to the World Series. Now he is back for a full year and settled into Houston life - and newly married. And as if their enviable depth behind those two studs wasn't enough, they went out and grabbed Gerrit Cole from the Pirates. Now they have three ace-caliber pitchers. And behind them they have a wealth of guys who could be a third pitcher or better on most rosters in the league - Collin McHugh, Lance McCullers Jr., Charlie Morton and Brad Peacock. They have options, and they have depth to guard against injuries.

Dueling MVP candidates: Teams at the top level need to have an MVP-level super star to carry the load for the team and show the rest of the lineup the way. The Astros have two. Jose Altuve is the defending MVP, and this year he's the second betting choice behind only Mike Trout. He sits at +500 and is decent value at that price. Right behind him, though, tied with two others as the third betting choice at +1000, is Carlos Correa. When the middle of your infield is that good, and your centerfielder, George Springer, is far from a long shot to win the MVP at +2500, then you are in pretty good shape.

Depth + experience = scary: They have the experience of last year to draw on, and they have a whole lot of depth, too. There isn't a spot you look at on this diamond and think that they need to be better. The bullpen isn't as good as some, but when you have that rotation and those bats then it doesn't necessarily need to be.

No, they won't repeat because...

The Cubs' hangover: The Cubs last year weren't that different than the Astros this year. Led by young homegrown talent for the most part, the Cubs relied on real depth and strong pitching to win a World Series and look great doing it in 2016. Hopes were high last year entering the season. They still made the playoffs, but they got off to a horrible start and were never nearly the frightening team that they had been the year before. And they are far from the only team to take a step back after a title. Winning is very hard in baseball, and defending is even harder. Egos grow, the targets on your backs get bigger, the offseason was short and full of distractions, and the hunger perhaps isn't quite as intense as it was.

The AL is deep: The top end of the AL this year is scary. New York did what the Yankees do, buying the best talent available. Giancarlo Stanton joins a roster that already had scary power, so this team is going to mash If the pitching holds up. Cleveland is every bit as good as they have been the last two years. The Red Sox added some power in J.D. Martinez, and they should get more consistent pitching. The Angels should be much improved. Toronto could be better. So could Seattle. And the Twins. And it goes on from there. The team that wins the AL this year will have survived one heck of a battle.

The NL is no joke, either: Once you win the NL then you have to win the World Series, and the team that is waiting for you there will be tough, too. The Cubs are going to be better. The Dodgers are again strong. And Bryce Harper has his sights set on a contract for the ages, so he'll be fired up to lead his Nationals deep. And teams like Arizona could be better, too. There would be no shame in losing to any of those squads.

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Start:	November 23, 2024 @ 10:07 PM
Expert:	Vernon Croy
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Betting Odds for Houston Astros to Repeat as World Series Champs with Expert Predictions

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