2017 Whitney Stakes Picks with Odds and Expert Betting Predictions

by Trevor Whenham - 8/2/2017

The Saratoga race meet is North America's best, and if you don't agree you are wrong. It got rolling last weekend with a solid slate of stakes capped by a wildly-disappointing Jim Dandy in which both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness winners completely flopped. Things really get serious now, though, with the Whitney Stakes - one of the great jewels of the summer racing calendar. The 1-1/8 mile race is a massive test for older horses and now is a Win and You're In race for the Breeders' Cup Classic, so it is more important than ever. And with a purse of $1.2 million there is some monetary intrigue as well.

Unfortunately, handicapping this edition of the Whitney won't be quite as easy as it has been of late. The last two winners of the Whitney - Frosted and Honor Code - had won the Met Mile in their prior start. So had 2011 winner Tizway. Mor Spirit absolutely crushed the field in the Met Mile, but Bob Baffert doesn't often send horses to Saratoga and isn't in this case, either. And the rest of the field in the Met was so humiliated they aren't bothering here. That leaves us with a seven-horse field with two strong stars atop the field, three intriguing challengers, and a couple of no-hopers. Much of the money in this field will land on the favorites, but that isn't always the right answer here. Favorites have won only two of the last 10 runnings of this race, which is below expectations, and two winners at more than 10/1 have also come in over that time. Here's how the field breaks down (Horse/Jockey/Track Morning Line):

Gun Runner, Florent Geroux, 4/5: This horse has a good claim at being the best horse in North America not named Arrogate. He was absolutely dominant, winning the Stephen Foster last time out by seven lengths. It was his third straight impressive win on North American soil. And in between his last two home starts he headed to the Dubai World Cup, where he took the lead around the turn, looked great, and was clearly best in the field except for the wonder horse Arrogate. This race is Gun Runner's to lose, but nothing is certain at Saratoga.

Keen Ice, Jose Ortiz, 3/1: His biggest claim to fame is that he beat American Pharoah here at Saratoga in the Travers after Pharoah won his Triple Crown. It was a bit of a fluke, though - he didn't win again for 22 months. He ran in the Pegasus World Cup but wasn't a factor. He was also in the Dubai World Cup with Gun Runner this spring, but didn't fire and finish seventh. He came back, though, and finally broke his losing streak in the Suburban at Belmont on July 8. I fear the distance of this race isn't enough for him. More significantly, I just don't think he's good enough to win. Easy pass for me at this price.

War Story, Javier Castellano, 6/1: Aside from Castellano, who I really like in big races, I have no real reason to get excited about this horse and think he is a massive underlay at this price. He was fifth in the Pegasus and had another flat effort at Gulfstream this spring as well. And his third in the Charles Town Classic was disappointing as well. His connections seem determined to stretch him out, but his best efforts have been at seven furlongs or less. I just don't get it, and I sure don't like this price.

Tu Brutus, Irad Ortiz Jr., 8/1: This is a very intriguing horse - the kind that is all but impossible to handicap effectively. He is a Chilean-bred horse that arrived here at the end of last year after winning eight races in Chile. He was part of one of the most exciting races of the year in the Excelsior at Aqueduct, narrowly losing a duel to Send It In but posting an eye-popping 118 Beyer speed figure in the process. Then he came back and won by 11 lengths over 1 3/8 miles in the Flat Out - albeit against no one. He came back in the Brooklyn at Belmont and was a disappointing third at 2/5, but he was subsequently found to have had a nasal infection in that race. He has rested since. So, will he be ready to shine? Can he handle this shorter distance? And is he nearly good enough to measure up to Gun Runner? If he goes off at somewhere near this price, he has to factor in - at least in exotics.

Breaking Lucky, Luis Contreras, 8/1: This horse is Canadian-based, which attracts my attention. His biggest claim to fame is that he beat Shaman Ghost, one of the stars of the older horse division, in a leg of the Canadian Triple Crown. He hasn't won in a year, though, and was a non-factor in the Pegasus. He was second behind Gun Runner in the Clark last fall and a pretty strong fourth in a tight finish in the Woodward behind Shaman Ghost here at Saratoga last summer, so he can get a piece of it on his better days, but I don't see him as nearly good enough to win.

Cautious Giant and Discreet Lover: It's not happening, so I won't waste the virtual ink writing about them.

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2017 Whitney Stakes Picks with Odds and Expert Betting Predictions

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