Which NFL Teams Will Make the Playoffs? Odds and Expert Predictions

by Trevor Whenham - 8/3/2017

There are 12 NFL Playoff spots and 32 teams that want them. If ever there was something that could create offseason betting opportunities, it is that. BetOnline has listed playoff specials for all 32 teams - "yes/no" odds on their playoff participation. Obviously some are not hugely attractive - I can't make a case to bet for Cleveland making it at +1000. Others are so likely as to be ridiculous for bettors - New England is all but a lock to make the postseason yet again, but you only get -1800, so you would have to hate money to make that bet. Somewhere between those two extremes, though, there is surely some value. And our job here is to find it. Here are four teams that stand out as the most interesting:

Dallas Cowboys (Yes -180, No +160): Imagine for a second that this wasn't America's Team and that expectations weren't sky high. Just pretend we are talking about a generic team. Their franchise QB has retired, and a late draft pick QB who had a strong rookie year has the pressure of being the whole answer under center. The star running back, also a sophomore, could face suspension for various legal issues. He's not the only one with legal woes. The coach is always on a hot seat. The owner has perfected meddling. And the division features one consistently solid team and two others that should be improved.

Now, if there weren't a big blue star on their jersey would you paint that team as a playoff lock? They are definitely in good shape to make it, but the wheels could easily fall off a team like this. Teams have had an offseason to get ready for Dak Prescott, and he has had an offseason to think about what is on his shoulders. That may not matter, or it may define this season. Plus, the secondary is relying heavily on young players, and there is a lot of pressure for Jaylon Smith - who had his leg shredded the last time we saw him on the football field - to step up as a big-time playmaker. The upside is big for this team, but the downside is also easier to see than this price suggests.

Houston Texans (Yes +145, No -175): First, the positives. This defense led the league in yards allowed in 2016, and they did it despite playing without J.J. Watt for much of the year. Now Watt is back, and the defense could be even better. They have a very solid receiving corps, and they have the pieces in place to run the ball well. They have a lot of the pieces in place to be a serious playoff contender. And with Indianapolis having QB health issues and Jacksonville being Jacksonville they play in a division that is certainly manageable.

It's all good in Houston - except for one little thing. The Texans have had uncertainty at QB for a long time, and they still do - albeit perhaps with more hope than in the past. Deshaun Watson was drafted as the future, but how soon will the future arrive? Will Tom Savage have to fill in for the short term? And will he be ready? I would argue that Watson knows more about winning than most young QBs and that he works exceptionally hard - as early reports from team camps have indicated. Trusting a rookie isn't as hard to do as it used to be, and I expect him to win this job early on. The rest of the team has enough going for it that I am willing to see some solid value in the yes side here.

Oakland Raiders (Yes -170, No +140): This one is simply a matter of relative value. If Dallas is at -180 to make it, Green Bay is at -300, Pittsburgh at -350 and Seattle at -450, then Oakland offers relative value at this price. Oakland is as likely as any of those teams to be postseason bound and more likely than Dallas.

Tennessee Titans (Yes +115, No -145): I am a believer in Tennessee. Last year they had a great offensive line and a strong running game but needed help at receiver. So, they drafted Corey Davis fifth overall and landed Eric Decker as veteran support. Can't do much better than that when it comes to helping out your very talented young quarterback. Marcus Mariota improved last year and should be ready for another big step forward. They also drafted Adoree' Jackson and signed Logan Ryan to shore up the secondary, which was an area of concern. They had a very good offseason. So, a talented and balanced offense behind a dominant line, with an improved defense. Add all of that to a team that was 9-7 last year and plays in a conference without a ton of depth behind the obvious division winners, and that sure sounds like a team I would bet on as a playoff team.

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Start:	November 23, 2024 @ 3:30 PM
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Which NFL Teams Will Make the Playoffs? Odds and Expert Predictions

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