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TCU Horned Frogs at Kansas State Wildcats Expert Picks with Odds and Predictions


by - 10/11/2017

TCU Horned Frogs wide receiver Taj Williams

TCU Horned Frogs at Kansas State Wildcats, Noon, Saturday Oct. 14

If I've said it once I've said it $100 times: Bill Snyder is a god damn national treasure.

And I really can't say it enough because Snyder is one of the best coaches in college football history. Not only that, but Snyder has been one of the best moneymakers in the sport during his time in Manhattan. And now Snyder has a chance to claim another major scalp and add to his legendary resume when another Top 10 team rolls into town this weekend.

No. 7 TCU will take on Kansas State at noon on Saturday, Oct. 14, in a game featuring two sleeper contenders for the Big 12 crown. TCU, by virtue of its lofty ranking, has been installed as a six-point favorite and the total is 53.0.

TCU at Kansas State Betting Storylines

Kansas State has been a thorn in the side of ranked opponents for years. They are 13-6 against the spread in their last 19 games against Top 25 opponents, and they have four outright upsets against ranked opponents in the last five years. Kansas State has also been a menace in Manhattan, going 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a home underdog.

K-State doesn't exactly have momentum at its back. The Wildcats are coming off a tough 40-34 overtime loss at Texas. They have been outgained in each of their past two games and are on an 0-3 ATS slide overall. And starting quarterback Jesse Ertz is questionable for this week's game. He left the Texas game in the third quarter with an ankle injury, returned briefly, and then handed the reigns back to sophomore Alex Delton for overtime.

TCU is the only remaining undefeated team in the parity-driven Big 12 after taking down West Virginia last week. TCU has also been outgained by its opponents in its last two weeks, but they still scored wins over the Mountaineers and Oklahoma State.

The Horned Frogs have been a little suspect with their pass defense. But overall their defense has been solid, allowing just 19.6 points per game and holding all four of their FBS opponents to season lows in total yards. TCU has been outscoring its opponents by an average of 24.8 yards per game and have been dynamite on the road this year, hammering Arkansas (28-7) and Oklahoma State (44-31) in their two games outside of Dallas. The road team is 12-4 ATS in TCU's last 16 games overall.

This is also a revenge situation for the Horned Frogs, who were blasted 30-6 at home last December to end the regular season. The road team is actually 3-2 straight up in the five meetings between these two since TCU joined the Big 12.

TCU at Kansas State Odds and Betting Trends

TCU opened as a 4.5-point favorite in this matchup. This line has continued to climb due to the fact that 75 percent of the action was coming in on the Horned Frogs. The total experienced a significant drop from 56.5 down to 53.0 but has since held firm.

Kansas State is 15-7 ATS after a loss and 33-16 ATS in the month of October. TCU is a solid 4-0 ATS in their last four road games, but this team has been a money burner for most of the past two seasons. The Horned Frogs are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against a team with a winning record, 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games overall, and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games against conference opponents.

Further, TCU is just 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games as a road favorite.

As for the total, these two teams have been tracking in opposite directions. The 'under' is 9-4 in TCU's last 13 games overall and is 6-2 in their last eight road games. The 'over' is 8-3 in Kansas State's last 11 games overall and is 5-1 in their last six home games. The 'over' is 45-19 in the Wildcats' last 64 games following a loss.

TCU at Kansas State Predictions and Picks

It's very difficult to make a confident move on this game without knowing if Ertz is going to play or not. Ertz is no All-American. But he's a solid veteran quarterback that can cause TCU a lot of problems with his legs.

Both teams are playing 'inside-out', meaning that they are winning games but losing the statistics battle. That's generally a sign of a team that is ready to fall. TCU is an extremely talented team, and K-State's strengths, on both side of the ball, play into the strengths of the Horned Frogs. But Manhattan is an extremely difficult place for an opponent to walk into and win. And the early start time is either going to favor the home team - catching TCU sluggish at 11 a.m. CST - or work against them. I think we'll know quickly.

The bottom line is re is no way that I would bet against Snyder as a home underdog; I've seen this guy win games - and take near-misses - too many times to doubt him at all. You have to wait and check on Ertz's status. But if he's full go then for me it is Wildcats or nothing.

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