2017 Pac-12 Conference Tournament Predictions with College Basketball Betting Odds
by Robert Ferringo - 3/8/2017
I can understand why the national college basketball media continues to overlook the Pac-12 each March. After all, It’s been exactly 20 years since the last Pac-12 team (Arizona) won a national title and UCLA’s Final Four fiasco’s in the early aughts is really the only other threats this league has made. The Pac-12 seems to be a perpetual March Madness disappointment.
But that’s not going to be the case this year. No way, no how.
The Pac-12 is one of the top conferences in the country. It is top-heavy. And there are some truly awful teams at the bottom of the barrel. But Oregon, Arizona and UCLA give Bill Walton’s â€"conference of champions†a legitimate shot at one in the NCAA Tournament.
But first things first. And this league, which had just one game separate those three powerhouse programs this year, will need to crown a conference champion. Oregon and Arizona split the regular season title, with Oregon earning the No. 1 seed in the league tournament via tiebreaker. UCLA was a single game behind.
The Pac-12 conference tournament will be held at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Play begins on Wednesday, March 8 and will conclude Saturday, March 11 with the championship game. Here is Doc’s Sports 2017 Pac-12 Tournament preview and predictions (odds courtesy of Sportsbook.ag):
The Favorite: Oregon (+180)
Basically, the Ducks have Dillon Brooks and you don’t. Oregon overcame a slow start to the season, exacerbated by Brooks’ slow offseason injury recovery, to dominate the Pac-12 this year. But perhaps no player in the league took and made as many big shots as Brooks did along the way. He is the team’s heart and soul and they will live and die with the All-American’s performance over the next month. Brooks is the difference maker. But Oregon does all the fundamentals well. They are ferocious defensively and have a strong post thanks to Chris Boucher and Jordan Bell. Tyler Dorsey gives them a second perimeter scoring option and they have a pair of capable point guards in freshman Payton Pritchard and fifth-year senior Dylan Ennis. Oregon hasn’t been great off its home court. But they’ve been good enough. We will see if that holds.
The Contender: Arizona (+290)
The first two words that come to mind when discussing the Wildcats are youth and size. Arizona starts three freshmen. But two of them are 6-5, the other is seven-footer Lauri Markkanen, and all three look like future pros. Add in two more seven-footers (Dusan Ristic and Chance Comanche) and the Wildcats have one of the most imposing frontlines in the nation. Arizona went from â€"amazing Sean Miller coaching job, but likely first round upset†team to â€"potential Final Four team†in late April when sophomore Allonzo Trier was declared eligible. The sweet shooting guard has been outstanding and is averaging 23.3 points per game in his last four outings. This team defends and rebounds for days. And they can physically dominate most of the second- and third-tier teams in this league that simply aren’t equipped to bang with them for 40 minutes.
The Dark Horse: UCLA (+200)
Because of the name recognition, their flashy attack, and some big-name freshmen the Bruins are a trendy pick to win this tournament and be a player in the NCAAs. And it is tough to argue with. UCLA has won nine in a row, including wins over Oregon and Arizona, and they possess one of the best offenses we’ve seen in college basketball this decade. The Bruins average 91.3 points per game and are No. 1 in the country with a 52.6 field goal percentage. They are No. 3 in the nation in 3-point shooting and point guard Lonzo Ball will likely be a Top 5 pick in this year’s draft. What’s not to like? UCLA’s March will be determined by its defense. Unlike Oregon and Arizona, the Bruins don’t have a naturally defensive team or a squad that is hefty in the paint. UCLA has to outscore teams, which they don’t mind in the least.
The Spoiler: USC (+2500)
The Trojans spoiled UCLA’s attempt to win the regular season crown with an 84-76 win back on Jan. 25. Now they will try to spoil their attempt at a tournament title. USC gets a bit overlooked because they simply aren’t as good as the top-end teams in the Pac-12 this year. But that doesn’t mean these guys can’t play! Jordan McLaughlin is a difference maker in the backcourt and the duo of Bennie Boatwright and Chimezie Metu give them a pair of solid post options. This team is young. But they get up and down the court and they can score in bunches. Further, unlike UCLA I don’t think that USC has any illusions about winning the Pac-12 or winning the national championship. Their potential quarterfinal with the Bruins IS the Trojans’ national championship.
Bubble Team To Watch: California (+2000)
The Golden Bears have been playing their way out of the NCAA Tournament field over the last few weeks, losing five of their last six games. They have a layup against horrid Oregon State (the only team they’ve beaten the last three weeks) but then the Golden Bears absolutely have to beat Utah in the quarterfinals and perhaps have to pull an upset in the semifinals if they want to work their way back into The Big Dance. The Golden Bears have four losses to Top 10 teams this year – Virginia, Arizona twice and Oregon – by five points or less. So they have been close. But if Ivan Rabb, Charlie Moore and Jabari Bird are going to finally punch through they will have to find another gear this week.
Early Round Game To Keep An Eye On:
No. 3 UCLA (-9.5) vs. No. 6 USC (11:30 p.m., Thursday, March 9)
There are several potentially outstanding quarterfinals matchups in this tournament. Utah vs. Cal could turn out to be an NCAA Tournament elimination game. And Colorado’s veteran team could have a great chance to upset a young Arizona squad. But this rubber match meeting between Los Angeles rivals has to get the top billing. It is the final game of Thursday’s quarters and it should be a good one. UCLA avenged its earlier loss to the Trojans with a devastating 32-point win at Pauley Pavilion on Feb. 18. I don’t see how this third meeting could devolve into another blowout. And, as I mentioned, this game means absolutely everything to the Trojans, who will have one game already under their belts.
2017 Pac 12 Conference Tournament Predictions: This really is a tough one. There are three potentially worth champions in this field. But there are also some really desperate second-tier squads – Cal, Utah, Colorado and USC – that are more than capable of springing an upset. And it wouldn’t stun me if that’s exactly what happens. Assuming that the chalk does hold, I think that the winner of the Arizona-UCLA semifinal will be at a disadvantage in the finals against Oregon. The Ducks won’t have a cakewalk game in its semifinal. But it certainly won’t be as taxing as what the Cats and Bruins would have to deal with. UCLA won in Tucson recently. But Arizona played horribly in that game. I think they would love another crack. Regardless, I will go with either UCLA over Oregon or Oregon over Arizona in the finals.
Robert Ferringo is a member of the Basketball Writer's Association of America and a professional sports handicapper for Doc's Sports. He is considered one of the best college basketball handicappers in the country and has a streak of 10 straight winning regular seasons. Robert’s $100-per-Unit clients have banked over $8,300 in profit over the last three weeks and took home $16,900 in profit for his clients last year alone. There is no better moneymaker in the nation. You can sign up for his college basketball picks and get more information here.
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