Odds for Best Quarterback in NFL: Most Touchdowns Props and Predictions

by Trevor Whenham - 8/4/2017

San Diego Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers

Our job here is simple. People love watching quarterbacks throw touchdowns, and we are going to try to make some money by figuring out who is likely to throw more touchdowns than anyone else. BetOnline has listed odds for 18 different quarterbacks to lead the league in passing touchdowns, and if you don't like any of them you can bet the rest of the "field" at a combined +1600. Let's look at the seven players with the lowest odds on the list and one long shot that is fairly attractive:

Tom Brady, New England (+425): It is crazy that Brady is the favorite here - and I am a big fan of his. He led the league in touchdowns in 2010 and didn't do so again until 2015. Last year he was tied for seventh with 28 - 12 behind Aaron Rodgers, but that was in only 12 games. Brady is as smart and effective as he has ever been, but he also just turned 40. Guys don't play QB at 40. Brady doesn't seem mortal, so I'm not afraid of a dropoff, but it will happen at some point. He and Bill Belichick know that they can win without him having to heave the ball around constantly. Their approach has matured, and it doesn't lend itself to leading this category. It could obviously happen - you can't rule anything out when this guy is involved. Betting that it will happen, though, would be the equivalent to just throwing money away.

Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay (+450): Rodgers was tops last year and has perennially been among the leaders in this category. His team is poised to be a contender, he's healthy, and he has enough talent around him. He has to be viewed as a major factor, though I don't see any value in him at this price - the public loves him, and the price reflects that.

Drew Brees, New Orleans (+600): Brees is a gunslinger, but he hasn't led this category since 2012, and he has a lot of things working against him here. He's 38 (not fatal because Brady led the league at 38, but a factor nonetheless), his team isn't destined to be great, and he has certainly had more talent around him at times. I would love for him to have a last charge at the top of the mountain, but at this price I can't justify betting on it.

Matt Ryan, Atlanta (+700): I am sour on this bet at this price, too. Ryan didn't lead in this category last year despite having an MVP season. It has proven hard for guys to replicate MVP seasons lately - just ask Cam Newton. That pressure is a factor, and so is the fact that Ryan and company are coming off arguably the most humiliating loss in NFL history. That could be tough to shake off for a team that hasn't always been mentally tough. My biggest concern, though, is that Kyle Shanahan has left to be the head coach in San Francisco. He was a brilliant offensive coordinator, and his replacement, Steve Sarkisian, is a bit of an idiot. It's hard to trust Ryan to improve on his numbers from last year facing those issues.

Andrew Luck, Indianapolis (+900): Luck is capable of leading the league in touchdowns - he has done it before. At this point, though, no one seems to know what his true health status is - and if they do they aren't talking. The possibility of starting the season on the PUP list is floating around, and that would cost him six games. Even if he is ready to start the season, he'll be rusty and likely tentative, and he doesn't have the best team around him right now. I think you'd have to be a little bit insane to make this bet at this price.

Philip Rivers, L.A. Chargers (+1200): Rivers is just so smart and fun to watch. And it's crazy that he has been around for 14 seasons already. He doesn't justify this price, though. He'll turn 36 in-season, and his 33 TD passes last year, which was only fourth best in the league, was his best total since 2008. He just doesn't have the game to put up gaudy numbers or the team around him he would need.

Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh (+1200): Last year Big Ben finished sixth with 29 touchdowns. That's pretty typical for him - and sixth is actually a little better than his norm. He runs a very efficient offense but doesn't pile up the ridiculous numbers. Not a good bet at all.

Marcus Mariota, Tennessee (+3300): As you can see I'm not much of a fan of most of the strong contenders, so it's time to gamble. Mariota is an attractive long shot at this price. He cracked the Top 10 last year with 26 touchdowns, and that's despite missing a game and a half due to injury and throwing fewer passes than anyone around him aside from the ridiculously-efficient Brady. He has the luxury of playing behind a ridiculously good offensive line, and the receiving corps was hugely improved with the addition of Corey Davis in the draft and Eric Decker in free agency. This is Mariota's third year, and he has shown a big upward trend, so this is when he could really break through. I like the price - a lot.

Nothing is free in this world. Nothing except these picks from Doc's Sports, that is. New clients can receive $60 worth of free picks from our expert NFL handicappers. No pressure. No obligation. Just free picks. Click here to get started today . Also, get three handicappers for the price of one when you sign up for a full-season football package! Click Here for details . Get free NFL betting picks weekly on Doc's Sports free football picks page .

Start:	November 23, 2024 @ 10:07 PM
Expert:	Vernon Croy
Free $60 Account Sign Up

Odds for Best Quarterback in NFL: Most Touchdowns Props and Predictions

Most Recent NFL Handicapping