NCAA Football Betting Advice: Fading the Top 25 Weekly Free Picks 9/19/2017

by Aaron Smith - 9/19/2017

Clemson's domination of Louisville was the story of the week for me. Clemson is now No. 2 in the polls, and they deserve that spot. We knew the defense would be excellent for Clemson, but Bryant has been better than expected right away at quarterback for the Tigers. They are a really dangerous team moving forward. Mississippi State's thrashing of LSU was definitely a stunner as well. LSU was more than a touchdown favorite much of the week. Mississippi State gets a big test this weekend.

The goal of this article is to track how teams in the weekly Top 25 do against the spread. We're here to look a little deeper than most and figure out how the top-ranked teams do at the betting window. In addition, in this weekly article I'll be taking a look at which Top 25 teams I think are best to fade that particular week.

How did the Top 25 do overall against the spread last season? Last year's full season results- 137 wins (45.97 percent) 159 losses (53.35 percent) and 2 ties (.67 percent)

Last week the overall Top 25 went 9-14 against the spread.

What about the selections from last week? It was ugly. Oklahoma State plastered Pittsburgh in a bet that never had a chance. Oklahoma State's Mason Rudolph continues to put up video game numbers every week. The game ended up being a public vs. sharp split type of game. The public was all over the Cowboys. The sharps were on the Panthers. The public won that battle easily. That one was a four-unit loser. There were a couple two-unit plays, and both of those lost as well. I'm not surprised that BYU couldn't move the ball against Wisconsin, but I am surprised they allowed 40 points. They made Hornibrook look like Steve Young out there. Tulane was the best pick of the bunch, but it lost as well. The Green Wave were driving about to take a lead in the middle of the second quarter as 34-point underdogs when they threw a pick-six. That changed the game and Oklahoma coasted the rest of the way. It was an 0-3 week, which is particularly frustrating when the Top 25 as a whole did poorly.

We'll see if we can bounce back with the selections this week.

Play #1- NC State +13 (3-unit play) Florida State has played one game this year. It is Week 4 of the season. Two games in a row have been postponed due to hurricanes. This can't have helped the Seminoles. Florida State doesn't know what they have yet in freshman quarterback James Blackman. The reports out from beat writers and the coaching staff are that Blackman has been great in practice. Still, this is his first start of his college football career. It would have been much easier for him to coast into the role with a game against Louisiana Monroe. Instead, he enters against an NC State team with a top five defensive line in the country. I think the long break and new signal callers are significant negatives here. I'll grab the underdog.

Play #2- Georgia -5 (3-unit play) The Mississippi State Bulldogs are coming off an amazing 37-7 win at home over LSU. Mississippi State's offense was expected to be good with Nick Fitzgerald at the helm, but the defense has been a huge surprise this year. The Bulldogs rank second in yards per play allowed (3.44) so far this year in the nation. Last year, they finished the season 103rd in yards per play allowed at 6.24 yards per play. They have 10 of the same guys back from last year's defense. I think this defense is overvalued right now, and this is a tough spot for Mississippi State. They were clearly extremely pumped for last week's game, and now they play a team that looks like an even better team than their opponent last week. I like the work Kirby Smart is doing with this defense, and Georgia's running game is terrific. I think this is a good spot to back Georgia.

Play #3- Iowa +13 (2-unit play) After last year's blowout win over Iowa in Happy Valley, Saquon Barkley said Iowa quit in that contest. That obviously wasn't a popular comment in the Iowa locker room. There has been a lot of chatter about that with the Hawkeyes leading up to this game. Iowa would have already been excited for a chance to knock off Penn State here, but this gave them a little extra motivation. There's no doubt Penn State is the better team, but this is a stadium where we've seen Iowa play some very good teams tough time after time. It's Penn State's first road game. I'll take the home underdog.

Play #4- TCU +12 (1-unit play) This is a numbers play. I rate TCU as a better team than most people do, and I think they'll be able to score quite a few on Oklahoma State here. Why isn't it a bigger play? Oklahoma State has burned me multiple times already this year, and I'm definitely a little shy about pulling the trigger on a bigger play here. Maybe Oklahoma State's defense is much improved this year. We'll find out in the weeks ahead. Gary Patterson is a really good coach though, and I see the Horned Frogs keeping this one close. A small play on TCU.

Fade the Top 25 Selections Year to Date: 3 Wins 7 Losses (+$-750)

Overall Top 25 ATS Record Last Week: 9 Wins 14 Losses

Cumulative Overall Top 25 ATS Record Year to Date: 32 Wins (46.4%) 37 Losses (53.6%)

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NCAA Football Betting Advice: Fading the Top 25 Weekly Free Picks

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