NBA Player Point Props Odds and Expert Betting Predictions

by Trevor Whenham - 10/17/2017

It's the dawn of a new NBA season, and we have spent a whole lot of time here looking at teams and the expectations surrounding them. Now it's time to look more at the individual players. Why? Well for the reason look at anything around these parts - because there could be value to be had. Bovada has listed totals for a wide range of players and the points per game they will score this year (also assists and rebounds if that's more your speed). Here's a look at some of the more interesting options:

Kyrie Irving - o/u 25.5 points: Boston is the most fascinating team in the East, and maybe in the league, this year, so we'll look at each of the big three here. Irving averaged 25.2 points last year, which was his best by a wide margin. He wouldn't have left Cleveland, which is still the best path to winning the East, if he wasn't desperate to be the guy. He certainly wasn't brought to Boston for his defensive savvy, and Boston clearly knows that to have any chance to contend these days you have to be able to score a ton. He will obviously have to share the ball, but he is going to have a green light to score as well. The creativity of coaching is more significant in Boston than in Cleveland, and he will likely be option 1 instead of option 2 when it's crunch time. I'd be quite surprised if he doesn't go over this number.

Gordon Hayward - o/u 20.5 points: Hayward had 21.9 points per game last year, which was the first time he had averaged more than 20 points. He is going to have strong chemistry with Brad Stevens because of their past shared success, and Irving is by far the best point guard he has played with. He'll have to get used to not being the primary option this year, but he seems to have the makeup to handle that just fine. I'm optimistic, and feel good about the over here as well. I don't think that Boston is going to win the East without help, but I am generally buying what they are selling.

Al Horford - o/u 13.5 points: Horford scored 14 points last year in his first year in Boston, which was his lowest total in a full season since his second season in 2010. On one hand he's the third option here, there are other guys that will want to score, too. On the other hand, though, he's still got some rubber on his tires and he will be invigorated by these changes. I would lean to the over here as well, though not as confidently as with his two teammates.

Dwyane Wade - o/u 14 points: When I first saw this number I thought it felt low, and sure enough it quickly adjusted so that the over was priced at -140. That makes it tougher to see value here, but the over feels like the clear play here. He was uninspired and never seemed comfortable or particularly healthy last year in Chicago and he still averaged 18.3 points per game. James trusts him, and that is the most important thing in Cleveland. I like the over.

Steph Curry - o/u 25 points: He averaged 25.3 points last year, and it took him until after Christmas for him to look comfortable. This team now realizes what they are capable of, and I get the real sense that they are going all out this year. They know that their window may not last forever, and that their advantage is unfair, and they are going to make that statement. I think Curry is a value play in the MVP race, and I expect a lot from him. The over is the right play here as well - a recurring trend on the ones I picked out.

Dwight Howard - o/u 12 points: They are basically begging you to take the over here. His 13.5 points last year in his lame single season in Atlanta were the worst he has posted since he was a rookie. Charlotte head coach Steve Clifford was Howard's assistant coach for much of his time in Orlando, so they have chemistry. And it's not like Charlotte has stars that are going to overshadow him significantly. Here's the thing, though - I just don't believe that Howard cares anymore. This is his third team in three years, and it is at least three years since he has looked bought in at all. He's a 31 year old baby. He shouldn't be as old as he looks, but he looks worn down physically and especially mentally. If returning to play at home wasn't enough to fire him up then what about Charlotte will make him care? I'm selling his stock, and taking the under here.

Start:	November 23, 2024 @ 10:07 PM
Expert:	Vernon Croy
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