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MLB Betting Trends: Totals Report for Hot Over and Under Baseball Teams

by - 7/7/2017

Andrew McCutchen Pittsburgh Pirates

How about the Houston Astros? Everyone keeps waiting for them to hit a tough patch, and it isn't happening. Houston is a ridiculous 31-9 on the road this year. They are scoring 6.91 runs per game away from home on the season. They are 16 games ahead of second place in the AL West, and it isn't quite the break yet!

Doc's Sports has done an MLB Totals Trends Report in the past, and we'll be doing it again this year. This will be a bi-weekly article here on the site. We'll highlight the Top Five 'Over' and the Top Five 'Under' teams of the past couple weeks in each article. Because the baseball season is a long grind, there can be some impressive streaks inside the season, and catching one of these can boost your bankroll. The statistics in this article are for games from June 16 through July 5.

After a long period of domination by the over, the under is 45-36 in the past week. In general, it was a lot easier to find under teams than over teams since the middle of June.

Top Five "Over" Teams (Over Listed First)

1. St. Louis Cardinals (12-6) The St. Louis Cardinals have one of the better lineups in the National League. They have underachieved on offense overall this season, but the over has still been a great play in their games because the Cardinals are so hapless on defense. It seems on a consistent basis, you can count on the Cardinals giving the opposition a couple runs per game because of misplays and errors in the field. I still don't want to bet unders with this team.

2. Chicago White Sox (12-7) The Chicago White Sox have seen six straight games go over the posted total. Improved offense is the biggest reason for this streak. Jose Abreu is back to smashing baseballs again, and the White Sox are getting good contributions from Yolmer Sanchez and Avisail Garcia when he is healthy. This is still a team with a terrible starting rotation.

3. Tampa Bay Rays (10-6) The over is an insane 11-0 in the Rays last 11 home games. They start a series with the red-hot Boston Red Sox this weekend. Tampa Bay has hit right-handed pitching really well this year. They are a top five offense against right-handers, but against lefties they rank in the bottom 10 teams in the majors.

4. Houston Astros (11-7) Houston's offense is so much better this season. The youngsters on this team are maturing very nicely. A couple years ago the Astros led the league in strikeouts, but now they are a patient team that works opposing pitchers and racks up a bunch of walks. George Springer's improvement at the top of the order has been a big key for this team. They still have an elite bullpen, so playing high overs with this team is tricky.

5. New York Mets (10-6-2) If there's one team that has confused me all season when it comes to totals it is the Mets. They shouldn't be as good as they are on offense. The Mets have had some great luck with runners in scoring position, and at some point that should normalize. I continue to believe that the Mets totals are inflated, but it hasn't shown up in the over/under record yet.

Top Five "Under" Teams (Under Listed First)

1. Cleveland Indians (14-4) Look at the Indians' box score from their game on July 5 and you'll know everything you need to know about how things have gone for this offense all year. The Indians pounded out 14 hits and managed to score only 2 runs! That's extremely hard to do, but the Indians have managed to do things like that consistently this year. The Tribe offense is better than they have shown, and their batted ball luck is likely to improve through the rest of the season. Be careful with unders with this team.

2. Chicago Cubs (14-5) The Cubs offense has hit left-handed pitching well this year, but they have been a big disappointment against right-handed pitching. The Cubs have an on-base-percentage of .358 against lefties this year, which is second in the majors. What about against righties? The Cubs have a miserable OBP of only .315 (22nd in the majors). Can the Cubs get any momentum before the break? The Brewers have built up a bit of a lead on them in the NL Central.

3. Pittsburgh Pirates (14-5) The Pittsburgh Pirates offense may be the most disappointing in the majors this year. They shouldn't be this bad. Andrew McCutchen has heated up a bit of late, but his numbers on the season aren't good enough. Starling Marte getting suspended for PED usage hurt this team badly. The Pirates are averaging only 4.15 runs per game on the year, which puts them in the bottom five teams in all of baseball. Marte is eligible to return on July 18.

4. Minnesota Twins (14-7) The Minnesota Twins offense has cooled off in the last few weeks. The Twins are playing below .500 baseball in the past month. They are only 18-26 on the year at home. Jose Berrios and the young starting staff have pitched better than expected. They are still within striking distance in the AL Central because of the Indians struggles, but I don't see the Twins being a contender at the end of the season. Keep an eye on Joe Mauer's health as he has been banged up of late.

5. Atlanta Braves (11-5-2) The Braves have been a strong under team of late, but I think the return of Freddie Freeman will be a big positive for this offense. Freeman is easily the team's most consistent hitter, and having him at third in the order creates so many more run-scoring chances. Matt Kemp should benefit from Freeman being back as well.

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