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2017 Miami Dolphins Road Schedule Odds with Expert Picks and Predictions

by - 6/7/2017

Ryan Tannehill of the Miami Dolphins

Sometimes NFL executives have to make uncomfortable decisions. It’s very rare for a general manager to fire a head coach and then name his offensive coordinator as the full-time replacement if said head coach also hired the OC.

 

So what does this have to do with the Miami Dolphins? Quarterback Jay Cutler had his best season as a Chicago Bear in 2015, and much of that was credited to offensive coordinator Adam Gase. It was clear the Bears had a rising star on their hands in Gase, a guy Peyton Manning also raved about when Gase was Manning’s OC in Denver. The problem is that Chicago had hired John Fox as head coach before the 2015 season, and he brought Gase with him.

 

Instead of replacing Fox after one year with Gase, the Bears had to watch him walk and become Miami’s head coach. That looks like terrible judgment in hindsight by Bears GM Ryan Pace because his team hugely regressed overall and offensively in 2016 without Gase. Meanwhile, the Dolphins improved from 6-10 in 2015 under Joe Philbin/Dan Campbell to 10-6 last year under Gase and made the playoffs for the first time since 2008.

 

Fins QB Ryan Tannehill finished with the best completion percentage (67.1) and rating (93.5) of his career. Running back Jay Ajayi was a breakout star with 1,272 yards on the ground. Tannehill was hurt in Week 14 vs. the Cardinals, and I would have liked to have seen what Miami could have done in the playoffs without him. Behind backup Matt Moore, the Fins went out meekly in the wild-card round 30-12 in Pittsburgh. But it was still clearly a step forward for this franchise. Gase looks like Miami’s best head coach since Jimmy Johnson.

 

Miami was 4-4 on the road in 2016, 5-3 against the spread and 5-3 “over/under.” The Dolphins travel to three playoff teams in 2017: Atlanta, New England and Kansas City. The home slate is going to be tougher. On huge disadvantage that Miami has is that it’s the only warm-weather team in the AFC East, so any late-season road games in the division really hurt this team. When the Bills travel to the Jets or Patriots in December, for example, that’s no big deal. I can see at least three outdoor cold-weather games on the schedule this year for Miami. I project a 3-5 record. Odds listed for the home team.

 

Sept. 17 at Chargers (-1): Miami comes off a Week 1 game vs. Tampa Bay, and this will be San Diego’s first game that counts in that 30,000-seat soccer stadium in Los Angeles. Bit of a break for Miami in that it’s a short week for the Bolts after playing Monday night Week 1. It’s the fifth consecutive season the teams have faced each other and the third straight time the Dolphins are the road team. They won 31-24 in San Diego last year. Key trend: Fins 0-3 SU & ATS in past three as road dog anywhere of 2 points or fewer.

 

Sept. 24 at Jets (+2): This is almost an early must-win game because a trip to London is up next (Miami home game vs. Saints) and then two potential playoff teams after that in Tennessee and Atlanta. The Dolphins won 34-13 at the Jets in Week 15 last year. Moore made his first start since Jan. 1, 2012, and threw for a career-high four TDs. Key trend: Fins 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in past four as road favorite in series.

 

Oct. 15 at Falcons (-6.5): Miami has to face both conference champions from last season. The weakness on the Dolphins’ defense is the secondary so that could be a major problem against Matt Ryan. At least it’s a super-short flight to Atlanta. Miami won the last meeting 27-23 at home in 2013. Key trend: Fins 2-4 ATS all-time at NFC South teams.

 

Oct. 26 at Ravens (-3): Thursday night, with Miami off a Week 7 home game vs. the Jets. It starts a run of three straight prime-time games for the Dolphins. That’s a first in franchise history. It’s the fifth straight year these two meet. Miami’s worst game of 2016 was a 38-6 loss in Baltimore in Week 13. The Dolphins had 277 total yards and three turnovers and allowed nearly 500 yards. Key trend: Fins 5-3 ATS all-time at Ravens.

 

Nov. 13 at Panthers (-3): Monday night and before Miami’s bye. It follows a tough Sunday night home game vs. Oakland. Miami is 4-1 in this series but lost the one meeting with Cam Newton, 20-16 in 2013. Key trend: Fins 5-5 ATS in past 10 before bye (any location).

 

Nov. 26 at Patriots (-9): This looks to be the first sure cold-weather game, and it’s out of Miami’s bye. It hasn’t won at Gillette Stadium since 2008, which was the last year the Pats didn’t win the division. It was 31-24 last year as Tannehill threw for 387 yards and two scores in trying to lead a big comeback. Tom Brady was suspended that game. Key trend: Fins 0-3 SU & ATS in past three as road dog of at least 7 in series.

 

Dec. 17 at Bills (-1.5): Nope, it won’t be balmy in Buffalo this time of year. Miami on a short week after hosting New England on Monday in Week 14. In a strange scheduling quirk, the Dolphins will play the Patriots twice in three weeks and the Bills twice in three weeks. The Dolphins won 34-31 at Buffalo in OT in Week 16 last year. Ajayi had 206 yards rushing and a touchdown and broke loose for a 57-yard run in overtime to set up Andrew Franks' 27-yard field goal with 47 seconds left. Key trend: Fins 2-8 ATS in past 10 as dog in series.

 

Dec. 24 at Chiefs (-4.5): Nope, it won’t be balmy in Kansas City this time of year. This one could have big wild-card implications. The Dolphins’ last December visit to Kansas City was in 2008 when they won 38-31 on their way to their AFC East title. That game was the coldest in franchise history, with a game-time temperature of 10 degrees. It’s the first meeting overall between the two since early in the 2014 season, a Chiefs blowout road win. Key trend: Fins 7-3 ATS in past 10 at AFC West teams.

 

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