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McCraken Odds to Win the 2017 Kentucky Derby with Picks and Predictions

by - 4/10/2017

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I never entirely believe in giving a horse a mulligan for an underwhelming race, but with McCraken I come as close as I ever come. After his wins in the Kentucky Jockey Club in November and the Sam F. Davis in February I was comfortable with the argument that this colt was as good as any in the country this year. But then a minor injury leading into the Tampa Bay Derby caused him to miss that race, and suddenly he was forced to come into the Blue Grass Stakes off a two-month layoff. Long breaks like that are never really ideal, but especially not for a young, inexperienced horse just looking to learn the game and develop a base of race fitness.

In the Blue Grass he looked, simply, like a horse that wasn't ready. He wasn't particularly good. So we are left with a choice - we can decide the horse just isn't any good, or we can believe that he is a talented colt who just needed this race to be ready for the Derby. Trainer Ian Wilkes would have us believe the latter. I tend to believe him.

Last race: He went off as the solid favorite in the seven-horse Blue Grass field, but he didn't come close to meeting expectations. And he had no real excuses. He stalked a fairly conservative early pace, moved too wide around the final turn, had room to make a move, but was flat. He wound up third. If he was tuned up fully he would have won because the horse that beat him, long shot Irap, just isn't that good, and second-place finisher Practical Joke had slammed it into reverse in the final furlong and was just begging to be passed. McCraken just plain looked tired. And given the layoff and the missed training because of the injury, that's probably exactly what he was.

Prior experience: Up until the Blue Grass the colt hadn't done too much wrong. He broke his maiden at Churchill Downs at the start of October then won an ungraded stakes at the end of the month there as well. Next he climbed into stakes company and won handily against a strong field in the Kentucky Jockey Club. He sat well off the pace that time before exploding to the lead and then cruising over the finish line after having turned off the jets. It was very easy and impressive. Those three wins at Churchill are big from a handicapping perspective because we know how well he likes the track. After that he headed to Florida for the winter. In the Sam F. Davis he again settled well off the pace, made a nice wide move around the final turn, took the lead, and cruised to the win. Up to that point he was a professional, impressive colt, and he would have been a strong favorite in the Tampa Bay Derby if he'd been healthy enough to run.

Trainer: Ian Wilkes was a long-time Carl Nafzger assistant. Nafzger won the Derby with Unbridled in 1990 and Street Sense in 2007. Both times the horses disappointed in the Blue Grass. He'll be fine with what happened. Heck, maybe this was his plan all along (it wasn't). It's not even accurate to say Wilkes just worked for Nafzger - that undersells the relationship they had. Australian Wilkes started working in the U.S. with Nafzger in 1990. By 2006 he was running the day-to-day operations, and as Nafzger slowly phased himself out from then on, Wilkes took over the stable and the owners. So really, Nafzger and Wilkes built a stable that runs to this day. Wilkes hasn't cracked the Triple Crown code yet on his own, but he was part of the Unbridled campaign and key to the Street Sense one, and he won the Breeders' Cup Classic in 2012 with Fort Larned, so he has some big game chops. It's not tough to believe that he'll have McCraken more ready for the Derby than he was for the Blue Grass.

Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr. had a choice to make between this colt and Louisiana Derby winner Girvin because he was the regular rider for both, and he opted for this saddle. It's not surprising, but it's still a good vote of confidence that that underwhelming Blue Grass performance was just a step on the road to Louisville. Hernandez surely felt some loyalty to Wilkes, since the two combined to win the Breeders' Cup Classic in 2012 with Fort Larned. Hernandez is not among the best jockeys in the country - he has never finished better than 20th nationally in earnings - but he is capable and has done good things on this horse in the past.

Breeding: Stamina isn't a particular concern here. Sire Ghostzapper was a Breeders' Cup Classic winner and Horse of the Year and is a son of Awesome Again, who also won the Classic. The mile and a quarter distance is in the blood of McCraken. Ghostzapper hasn't had Triple Crown success as a sire yet, but his son Shaman Ghost won the Queen's Plate and was runner-up to Arrogate in the Pegasus World Cup. McCraken's damsire is Seeking the Gold, who finished second in the Classic himself in 1988 and went on to a successful stud career. From a Triple Crown perspective the highlight of his offspring was Jazil, who won the Belmont in 2006. There is no reason to doubt that McCraken can handle the Derby distance.

Odds: BetOnline has McCracken as the second choice to win the Derby currently at +575. Given what his last couple of months have looked like, that tells you everything you need to know about this frustrating and perplexing class of three year olds. In the final Kentucky Derby future wager offered by Churchill Downs, which took place the weekend before the Blue Grass, McCraken was the 5/1 favorite.

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