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2017 Kansas City Chiefs Season Win Total Picks


by - 8/9/2017

Kansas City Chiefs outside linebacker Justin Houston

2016 Record: 12-4

2017 Las Vegas Season Win Total: 9.0

2017 Season Win Total Pick: 'Under'

Andy Reid has won over 60 percent of his games as a head coach in the NFL. He's had just three losing seasons in 18 years and has won 10 or more games 11 times. Reid is yet to have a losing season since taking over the Chiefs, and he's increased Kansas City's win total each of the past two years.

Alex Smith has won 59 percent of his career starts as a quarterback. He's had six straight winning seasons as a starter while winning 70.5 percent of his games, going 60-25 since 2011. Smith's completed 61.7 percent of his passes in his career and he hasn't thrown over 10 interceptions in a season yet this decade.

Yet somehow Reid and Smith (and by extension the Chiefs) are afterthoughts when talking about the best coach-quarterback combinations (or teams) in the NFL. So bet against the Chiefs at your own risk.

I seriously have no idea why people don't give those two more credit. And now that I've gotten all that out of the way, I'm going to move on to all of the reasons why I will be betting against Reid and Smith this year.

Look, Kansas City is still rock solid because of their brain trust. They run the ball. They play great defense, finishing in the Top 10 in points allowed four straight seasons. They don't make mistakes or beat themselves. They even have excellent special teams.

So why do I think the Chiefs will come up short and miss the playoffs this year? The reasons are numerous.

First, in 2016 Kansas City benefitted from an extreme turnover differential (plus-16) for the second straight year. They've gone plus-30 in TO's the past two seasons, and I don't think that streak can continue. The Chiefs were actually outgained last season, and they surpassed their Pythagorean Win Total by two games.

Further, Kansas City had beneficial offensive and defensive yard per point numbers, both of which scream for a regression. And they went 6-2 in games decided by six points or less. Basically, every statistical break that they could get last year the Chiefs got. Sure, sometimes that's luck. But Reid and Smith have been awful "lucky" for an awful long time.

This is a good number. I, personally, don't think I'd have the stones to pull the trigger on this one. There's really just not a lot of upside betting against Reid and Smith, two guys that just keep proving everyone wrong. But with a gun to my head I would have to fall back on the numbers (and the fact that Kansas City has a rough schedule with four short weeks). I can see this team stuck at 8-8 this year, so I will play 'under'.

Chiefs Regular Season Schedule (All times Eastern)

Week

Date

Kickoff (CT)

Opponent

1

7-Sep

7:30 p.m.

at New England Patriots

2

17-Sep

12:00 p.m.

Philadelphia Eagles

3

24-Sep

3:25 p.m.

at Los Angeles Chargers

4

2-Oct

7:30 p.m.

Washington Redskins

5

8-Oct

7:30 p.m.

at Houston Texans

6

15-Oct

3:25 p.m.

Pittsburgh Steelers

7

19-Oct

7:25 p.m.

at Oakland Raiders

8

30-Oct

7:30 p.m.

Denver Broncos

9

5-Nov

3:25 p.m.

at Dallas Cowboys

10

12-Nov


Bye

11

19-Nov

12:00 p.m.

at New York Giants

12

26-Nov

12:00 p.m.

Buffalo Bills

13

3-Dec

12:00 p.m.

at New York Jets

14

10-Dec

12:00 p.m.

Oakland Raiders

15

16-Dec

7:30 p.m.

Los Angeles Chargers

16

24-Dec

12:00 p.m.

Miami Dolphins

17

31-Dec

12:00 p.m.

at Denver Broncos

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