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Free College Football Picks: Yes or No Playoff Props Odds and Predictions


by - 8/4/2017

Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Jalen Hurts

I was a massive skeptic of the College Football Playoff when it was announced. It still has some real issues - having games on New Year's Eve is insane, and it still doesn't solve the fact that boiling 100+ teams down to four after a dozen games, and then deciding who they play in the semifinals, is every bit as subjective as the last solution for finding a national title was. On the plus side, though, it has made for some solid drama - not that Clemson and Ohio State game last year, but several games other than that. With fall camps underway, and real games less than a month from when I write this, it's a good time to look at who could make the final four, and how we can make money from it.

BetOnline has props listed for whether 27 different teams will make the four team playoff. Here are seven that are the most interesting:

Alabama ("Yes" -195, "No" +160): The Tide have a great situation - a chance to make a statement against a very good Florida State game in the opener and then a pretty soft schedule aside from a home game against LSU and maybe trip to Auburn to close the season that could be tough if the Tigers are for real - which I doubt. It's a very manageable season for a good team - and this has the very real potential to be much, much more than just a good team. They are loaded, experienced, and hungry after last year's loss to Clemson. At this point it would be quite a bit more surprising if they didn't make the playoff than if they did - which is just what these odds suggest.

Clemson (Yes +700, No -1400): Being the defending champ is tough - especially when your star QB, who was also the heart and soul of your team, has left. I actually think there is some value in this price. If the winner of the ACC has one loss or less they will make the playoff, and that winner is all but certain to be Florida State or Clemson. The Seminoles have the big edge, and Clemson needs to get lucky with a QB replacement, but they have a home game against Auburn and a road game in Louisville in Weeks 2 and 3 to make a statement and get battle tested, and then they get to host Florida State. If they win that game, and at least one of the first two, then they would be headed back to the playoff yet again. It's not overly likely, but this price is more than fair.

Florida State (Yes +155, No -185): They can probably survive an opening loss to Alabama, but they will have to win at both Clemson and Florida - and the more convincingly the better. There is a lot to like with this team, but I don't entirely trust Jimbo Fisher, and I would need a better price than this to bet on the yes side.

Ohio State (Yes +140, No -170): If Michigan and Ohio State didn't play in the final weekend of the year then this would be a fair price. The Wolverines should be good this year, they came within a small whisker of beating Ohio State last year, and they game is in Ann Arbor. Losing that game would be very tough for the Buckeyes to overcome if the playoff race was tight - especially if it knocked them out of the Big Ten title game. It obviously wouldn't be fatal - Ohio State made the playoff without winning the division last year, but it makes things tougher, and that means that there isn't enough value in the yes to make this worth a play.

USC (Yes +150, No -180): Sam Darnold walks on water. I heard he can split an atom with his mind. He saves an average of seven babies from a horrible death every single day. He's the hero we need, not the hero we deserve. Those are just the things I've heard whispered reverentially about the Heisman favorite today. It's a little crazy. He was very good last year, but the guy has played only nine games, and now he has the weight of the world on his shoulders - and a target the size of California on his back. And his coach would struggle to be more underwhelming. The team is good, and the Pac-12 is not, but this price involves far too much public love for the Trojans and their latest holy QB to even consider betting it.

Washington (Yes +450, No -700): I like the price. Washington learned a lot from last year. They lost some key pieces, but they are well stocked and still very well coached - much better than USC is from where I sit. And because everyone looking at the Pac-12 is lusting over USC these days, Washington has been forgotten to some extent - which has this price higher than it should otherwise be. There is some value here.

Oklahoma (Yes +250, No -325): If Bob Stoops was still in town then this would be a bargain on the yes side. Now, though, it's not attractive. That's not a knock on Lincoln Riley - he was the right choice and has a very bright future. He only took over in June, though, and that means he is way behind where he should be. And his promotion means that an offense that has lost some key pieces has also lost their coordinator. Not enough meat on this bone - though Oklahoma still remains a very strong playoff contender.

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