Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: Wednesday, May 3, 2017, Opening Line Report

by Alan Matthews - 5/2/2017

I don't pretend to know what type of language is in a Major League Baseball player's standard contract. But I've never heard of a guy refusing to take an MRI like Mets ace Noah Syndergaard did last Friday after he was scratched from Thursday's start. Syndergaard is looking like a fool now because Sunday he suffered a partial tear of his right lat muscle. Guess what showed that? An MRI. Syndergaard is out indefinitely and it's likely going to be a couple of months; in 2015, fellow Mets pitcher Steven Matz missed two months with the same type of injury. Clayton Kershaw tore a lat muscle in March 2014 and missed around six weeks before coming back to win not only his third Cy Young in four years but the NL MVP as well. Roy Halladay tore a lat muscle in 2012 and never pitched effectively in the major leagues again. The Mets are complete toast now, and it wouldn't surprise me if Terry Collins is the first manager fired. There's no way this team will catch first-place Washington in the NL East - the Nationals will be the first team this season to clinch their division. Syndergaard is one of the 5-10 best pitchers on the planet, so I doubt even competing for a wild-card spot is likely. The Mets were given a win total of 87.5 before the season. They aren't topping that number. Expect a fire sale later this summer (Jay Bruce? Matt Harvey? Curtis Granderson?) to reboot for next year.

Blue Jays at Yankees ( -113, 8 )

ESPN game. The Jays can't catch any breaks as they had to put ace Aaron Sanchez back on the DL Monday. Sanchez's return from the disabled list lasted just one inning Sunday before he suffered a split nail on his right middle finger. That problem was what landed him on the DL the first time. Marcus Stroman (2-2, 2.97) gets the call here for Toronto. He comes off a no-decision vs. the Rays in allowing two runs over 7.1 innings and striking out a season-high 10. Stroman already has two complete games. He was 1-1 with a 1.80 ERA in three starts last year vs. the Yankees. Jacoby Ellsbury might get the game off as he's 1-for-20 off Stroman. New York lefty CC Sabathia (2-1, 4.34) was blasted for seven runs and nine hits over 5.2 innings last time out vs. Baltimore. He was 0-3 with a 3.12 ERA in four starts vs. the Jays in 2016. Jose Bautista is only 5-for-40 off him with 10 strikeouts.

Key trends: The Jays are 6-1 in Stroman's past seven vs. the Yankees. New York is 0-6 in Sabathia's past six vs. Toronto. The "over/under" has gone under in Stroman's past four vs. the Yanks.

Early lean: Blue Jays and under.

Marlins at Rays (-118, 8)

Miami will add the designated hitter for this interleague matchup in the Sunshine State. You might see Rays third baseman Evan Longoria at DH more coming up because he's dealing with soreness in his left foot recently that feels similar to when he had plantar fasciitis in his right foot back in 2013. Longoria is slumping in a big way and barely above the Mendoza Line on the season. It's a matchup of young lefties here. Miami's Adam Conley (1-2, 6.86) had the worst start of his career last time out vs. Pittsburgh, gashed for nine runs in just 1.2 innings. He hadn't given up more than six previously. Longoria is 1-for-3 career off him. Tampa's Blake Snell (0-2, 3.42) rarely gets much run support but also has gone more than five innings just once in five starts because he can be a bit wild. He's third in the AL with 18 walks. Snell has never faced the Marlins.

Key trends: The Marlins are 1-9 in their past 10 interleague road games vs. a lefty. The Rays are 1-8 in Snell's past nine on four days of rest. The under is 5-1 in Conley's past six on Wednesday.

Early lean: Rays and under.

A's at Twins (-137, 8)

Minnesota will bring Hector Santiago off the bereavement list for this start. The lefty is 2-1 with a 2.43 ERA in five starts. He allowed two runs over five innings last time out in a no-decision vs. Texas. Santiago didn't get a decision in two 2016 starts vs. Oakland with a 6.59 ERA. Jed Lowrie won't be glad to see him as Lowrie is 0-for-21 vs. Santiago. Oakland's Kendall Graveman (2-1, 2.25) lost to the Angels last time out in allowing two runs in six innings. He also turned an unassisted double play against the Angels, becoming the first A's pitcher to do so since Blue Moon Odom on July 11, 1971. Graveman hasn't allowed more than two earned yet this season. He was 2-0 with a 2.13 ERA last year against the Twins. Joe Mauer is 2-for-4 off him with a double.

Key trends: The A's are 1-4 in Graveman's past five road starts. The under is 5-1 in his past six away from home. The under is 7-3 in Santiago's past 10.

Early lean: Twins and under.

Brewers at Cardinals (-158, 8)

Monitor the status of Milwaukee outfielder Ryan Braun. He has some tightness in his right trapezius muscle and is likely to miss at least a couple games but avoid the disabled list. Braun, still linked in trade rumors to the Dodgers, is hitting .287 with seven homers and 18 RBIs. It's Chase Anderson (2-0, 2.10) on the mound for the Brew Crew. He comes off a season-worst start of four earned runs over six innings against Atlanta. The start prior to that, he held the Cards to no earned runs over six innings. Randal Grichuk is 4-for-10 off him with three RBIs. St. Louis' Adam Wainwright (2-3, 6.12) beat the Brewers on April 21, giving up two runs over five innings with a season-high nine strikeouts. Braun is a career .217 hitter off him with 23 strikeouts in 83 at-bats.

Key trends: The Cards are 5-0 in Wainwright's past five vs. the Brewers. They are 0-4 in Anderson's past four vs. the Cards. The over is 4-0 in Wainwright's past four.

Early lean: Cardinals and over.

Giants at Dodgers (-174, 7.5)

It's the second start of the season for lefty Julio Urias, the Dodgers' top pitching prospect. His first came in San Francisco on Thursday when he allowed one run and four hits over 5.2 innings in a victory. The 20-year-old was pulled after 90 pitches, a limit he likely won't exceed often. Manager Dave Roberts says Urias is in the majors for good now. San Francisco's Brandon Belt is 3-for-6 off him with a homer and three RBIs. The Giants' Jeff Samardzija (0-4, 6.32) comes off his best start of the season in giving up two earned and four hits over seven innings in a no-decision vs. San Diego. "Shark" has only faced NL West foes this year but not L.A. He was 0-1 with a 4.22 ERA in two starts vs. the Dodgers last year. Yasmani Grandal is 3-for-3 off him.

Key trends: The Giants are 1-5 in Samardzija's past six vs. the NL West. The Dodgers are 6-2 in Urias' past eight at home. The under is 6-2-1 in Samardzija's past nine on the road.

Early lean: Dodgers and under.

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