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Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: Wednesday, May 24, 2017, Opening Line Report

by - 5/23/2017

Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Chris Sale

You had a fine career David Wright, but it's time to walk away for good. The Mets' third baseman and former captain (I guess he technically still is) has been sidelined since last May with a cervical disc herniation and, most recently, a shoulder impingement. He had to be shut down from his throwing program last week and now it sure seems like Wright is done. There was a time there that Wright was arguably just as popular in New York as Derek Jeter was and Wright put up better numbers for a handful of years than Jeter did. Alas, Wright has played a total of 75 games the past two seasons due to injury. The Mets signed Wright to a seven-year, $138 million contract in 2012, which looks horrible in hindsight. The good news is that the team purchased insurance on the contract in 2015. The Mets this year will get 75 percent of the contract while Wright is unable to play once he hits the 60-game missed mark. He still has three years and another $47 million left on his contract and is 34 years old. Third base has been a gaping hole for the franchise since Wright started having issues.

Twins at Orioles ( -140, 9 )

First pitch of 12:35 p.m. ET in a getaway game. Twins fans haven't had a young pitcher to get excited about in years, but they have one now in 22-year-old Puerto Rican Jose Berrios (2-0, 0.59). He has gone 7.2 innings in both starts this season and allowed one run, four hits and 15 strikeouts. Berrios is only the third Twins pitcher in the last 30 seasons to pitch into the eighth inning and win each of his first two appearances of a season. The others were Brad Radke (2001) and Andrew Albers (2013). Radke became a very good pitcher. Never heard of the other guy. Baltimore's Manny Machado is 2-for-2 off Berrios with a homer. The Orioles' Chris Tillman (1-0, 3.52) has made three starts since returning from the DL and has allowed three runs in each of the past two. The Twins' Jason Castro is 4-for-13 off him with a homer and six RBIs.

Key trends: The Orioles are 2-5 in Tillman's past seven vs. the Twins. The "over/under" has gone under in five of those seven.

Early lean: Twins and under.

Mariners at Nationals (-162, 9)

Seattle loses the DH for this interleague matchup, meaning slugger Nelson Cruz heads to the outfield or the bench. Just about Seattle's entire projected Opening Day rotation is on the disabled list so the Mariners are turning again to rookie Sam Gaviglio (0-0, 1.29), who was the 170 th overall pick in the 2011 draft by the Cardinals. He made his second appearance as a big-leaguer and first start Thursday and shut out the White Sox over five innings on three hits. Now he'll get a chance to hit assuming he's still in there when his turn comes around. Washington's Tanner Roark (3-2, 4.73) was lit up for a season-high seven runs over five innings Thursday in Pittsburgh. Mariners shortstop Jean Segura is 5-for-11 off him with a homer and two RBIs.

Key trends: The Nats are 13-5 in Roark's past 18 at home. The over is 7-1 in his previous eight interleague starts.

Early lean: Nationals and over.

Rockies at Phillies (+101, 8.5)

Go check out the numbers of Rockies closer Greg Holland. He's been nearly unhittable and has to be a leader in the clubhouse for NL Comeback Player of the Year along with Milwaukee's Eric Thames. Holland has completely changed a Colorado bullpen that was one of MLB's worst in 2016. The Rox go with Tyler Chatwood (3-6, 5.09) here. On April 15 he threw a complete-game two-hit shutout vs. the Giants and really hasn't been the same since, going 2-4 with 6.06 ERA in six starts. The Phillies' Freddy Galvis is 2-for-6 against him. Philadelphia's Jeremy Hellickson (5-1, 3.44) had three non-quality starts in a row, raising his ERA from 1.80 to 3.71, but he was strong Friday in Pittsburgh in allowing one earned over six. He became the first Phillies starting pitcher in more than five years to allow hits to the first two batters he faced and then complete at least six innings without surrendering another hit. Colorado's Ian Desmond is 2-for-5 with a homer off him.

Key trends: The Rockies are 3-8 in Chatwood's past 11 on Wednesday. The Phillies are 6-0 in Hellickson's past six at home. The over is 4-0 in Chatwood's past four vs. the Phillies.

Early lean: Phillies and over.

Rangers at Red Sox (-285, 8.5)

All eyes again will be on Red Sox lefty Chris Sale (4-2, 2.19). Last time out he struck out 10 in Oakland in a no-decision, tying his own record and that of Pedro Martinez in striking out double-digits in eight straight games. Sale has an MLB-best 95 strikeouts in just 65.2 innings. Martinez actually accomplished that feat in 10 starts between Aug. 19, 1999 and April 9, 2000, but his overall streak was interrupted by a one-inning relief appearance on Oct. 2, 1999. Sale didn't face the Rangers last year while with the White Sox. Shin-Soo Choo is just 1-for-19 off him with 10 strikeouts. Texas lefty Martin Perez (2-5, 3.71) is 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA in his last two starts -- both against NL clubs -- after snapping a four-game losing streak. He is 2-2 with a 6.58 ERA in five career starts against the Red Sox. Mookie Betts is 3-for-6 with an RBI off Perez.

Key trends: The Rangers are 2-8 in Perez's past 10 on the road. The under is 7-3-1 in his past 11 vs. the AL East. The under is 7-2 in Sale's nine starts.

Early lean: Red Sox on runline (-135) and under.

Cardinals at Dodgers (-162, 8)

MLB Network game and the only one to start after 8:10 p.m. ET (10:10). The Cards go with Mike Leake (4-2, 2.03). He continues to lead the National League in ERA, which is simply astonishing because Leake doesn't have great stuff. It won't last. His rate of home runs on fly balls -- 13.5 percent in his career (which was also his 2016 rate) -- is at 8.5 percent. The Cards have lost his last two even though Leake allowed only two earned in each of them. All eight of his outings have been quality starts. Corey Seager is 2-for-10 off Leake with a homer. Dodgers lefty Rich Hill (1-1, 2.77) returned from another bout with blisters last Tuesday and allowed one run in five innings at the Giants. The Dodgers are getting tired of his problem, however, and could shift Hill to the bullpen if they resurface. Only a couple of Cardinals have seen him. Yadier Molina is 0-for-4 with three walks.

Key trends: The Cards are 4-1 in Leake's past five on the road. The Dodgers are 0-4 in Hill's past four on at least seven days of rest. The under is 10-3 in Leake's past 13. The under is 6-0 in Hill's past six at home.

Early lean: Like under better than side (Dodgers).

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