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Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: Wednesday, May 17, 2017, Opening Line Report

by - 5/16/2017

Jose Bautista Toronto Blue Jays

This past winter, Yankees GM Brian Cashman said his team would chase a big-money free-agent closer but only to a point. He wasn't going to go out and break the bank and give six years to a guy who pitches maybe 3-4 innings a week. Perhaps Cashman should have listened to himself instead of giving Aroldis Chapman a five-year, $86 million deal. You almost had to figure with how hard that Chapman throws that arm trouble was coming. It has. He was placed on the disabled list Sunday with rotator cuff inflammation and won't be back for at least a month. The good news is an MRI revealed no structural damage, but any issue with a rotator cuff is worrisome. In his two outings before being placed on the disabled list, Chapman had allowed four earned runs on six hits and two walks. His average fastball velocity is down to 98.2 mph this year. Pretty darn good but it was 100.9 in 2016. And, remember, Chapman was used a ton in last year's playoffs. The Cubs never even tried to re-sign him. The Yankees should still be fine in the ninth inning with Dellin Betances taking over, but they are certainly weaker in the eighth inning, Betances' former spot.

Mets at Diamondbacks ( -133, 9.5 )

A 3:40 p.m. ET first pitch from the desert. I actually thought Matt Harvey might show a little heart and pitch well last time out after being embarrassed with his off-field antics and suspended three games by the Mets. But Harvey (2-3, 5.63) proved he was just another overblown New York athlete all along in allowing five runs on seven hits, three homers, in a loss at the Brewers. It was Harvey's third straight outing allowing at least five earned. Arizona's Paul Goldschmidt is 1-for-8 off him with a homer and six strikeouts. Harvey won't have to worry about A.J. Pollock as he has landed on the DL as expected. Diamondbacks lefty Patrick Corbin (3-4, 4.17) has been roughed up his past two outings to the tune of 12 runs and 15 hits over 10 innings. He hadn't allowed more than three earned in his first six this season. Jose Reyes is 4-for-8 off him with a double. Jay Bruce is 2-for-11 with a homer.

Key trends: The Mets are 0-6 in Harvey's past six road starts vs. teams with a winning record. The Snakes are 0-5 in Corbin's past five on Wednesday. The "over/under" is 7-2 in Corbin's past nine at home.

Early lean: Mets and over.

Dodgers at Giants (+173, 6.5)

Clear pitching matchup of the day with a 3:45 p.m. ET start from the Bay Area. Dodgers ace lefty Clayton Kershaw (6-2, 2.43) won at Coors Field last time out in allowing two runs and seven hits with a season-low four strikeouts in seven innings. In his 19 starts at Coors Field, Kershaw is now 9-4 with an ERA of 4.58, and with his ninth win, he surpassed Hall of Famer Greg Maddux for the most wins as a visitor there. Kershaw still has only faced NL West teams this season and is 1-1 with a 2.77 ERA vs. the Giants. Hunter Pence won't have to worry about worsening his .110 average in in 73 at-bats off Kershaw as Pence landed on the DL Monday with a hamstring injury. And then there's my boy Brandon Belt and his 3-for-51 27 Ks line vs. Kershaw. San Francisco's Johnny Cueto (4-2, 4.15) is working on a string of four straight quality starts. He is 1-0 with a 4.15 ERA in two starts vs. the Dodgers in 2017, allowing three runs in each. Corey Seager hits .364 against him in 22 at-bats. Justin Turner is 9-for-27 with a homer.

Key trends: The Dodgers are 7-2 in Kershaw's past nine vs. the Giants. The under is 15-2-1 in his past 18 in San Francisco. The Giants are 5-2 in Cueto's past seven vs. L.A.

Early lean : Dodgers and under.

Blue Jays at Braves (-113, 8.5)

This interleague home-and-home set switches to Georgia for two games and the Jays lose the DH. But they are expecting to activate shortstop Troy Tulowitzki off the DL for this one barring any setbacks. The injury-prone Tulo, out since April 21, is hitting .263 with a homer and 10 RBIs in 16 games. Toronto has placed outfielder/1B Steve Pearce on the DL, however. The Jays go with former reliever Joe Biagini (1-1, 2.28). He went a season-high five innings last time out and didn't allow a run to the Mariners. His pitch count was 68 for that one and he should have a slightly longer leash here. Only a few Braves have seen him. Matt Kemp is 0-for-2 with two strikeouts. Atlanta had lost all six appearances by Mike Foltynewicz (1-4, 4.04) this season until Friday when he allowed one run over six innings at the Marlins. Not many Blue Jays have faced him. Tulowitzki is 0-for-1 with a strikeout.

Key trends: The Jays are 11-4 in their past 15 interleague road games. The Braves are 1-5 in Foltynewicz's past six. The over is 6-1 in Foltynewicz's past seven at home.

Early lean: Jays and over.

Red Sox at Cardinals (-107, 7.5)

ESPN game. Reigning AL Cy Young winner Rick Porcello (2-5, 4.01) toes the mound for Boston. He had a fifth straight quality start Friday against the Rays, giving up three earned and nine hits over six innings in a loss. It marks the fourth time in the last five seasons that a defending Cy Young winner has found himself with as many as five losses by May 12. It was Houston's Dallas Keuchel last year. The Cards' Dexter Fowler is 2-for-6 off him with a double. Jedd Gyorko is 1-for-3 with a triple. St. Louis' Mike Leake (4-2, 1.94) leads the NL in ERA but comes off a loss to the Cubs (6 IP, 2 ER). After not allowing a home run in his first 40 innings, Leake has served up three in his last seven.Boston's Mitch Moreland is 2-for-8 with a dinger off him.

Key trends: The Sox are 0-5 in Porcello's past five on Wednesday. The Cards are 1-7 in Leake's past eight at home. The over is 4-1 in Porcello's past five on Wednesday. The under is 5-1 in Leake's past six at home.

Early lean: Cards and under.

Rockies at Twins (-139, 8.5)

Colorado will add the DH for this interleague game. The Rockies have some intriguing young pitchers on their roster, and one of them is 22-year-old Venezuelan German Marquez (1-2, 4.88), who goes here in the eighth start of his MLB career. He has alternated great ones and lousy ones in his four this year. He dominated the Cubs last time out with three-hit shutout ball over eight innings and eight strikeouts. Marquez also knocked in two runs to become the second rookie ever to throw at least eight scoreless innings and drive in two or more runs against the defending World Series champion. Harry Taylor did it for the Brooklyn Dodgers against the Cardinals in 1947. No Twins have faced Marquez. Minnesota's Ervin Santana (6-1, 1.50) is second in the AL in ERA and bounced back from his lone bad outing this year with seven innings of shutout ball Friday in Cleveland. Santana's ERA is the lowest for a Minnesota pitcher through his first eight starts of a season since Scott Erickson began the 1991 season at 1.44 through eight starts. Colorado's Carlos Gonzalez is 8-for-15 off him with four extra-base hits.

Key trends: The Twins are 1-5 in Santana's past six interleague starts. The under is 9-2-1 in his past 12 overall.

Early lean: Twins and under.

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