Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: Wednesday, May 10, 2017, Opening Line Report

by Alan Matthews - 5/9/2017

A handful of teams have made changes at closer already this season either due to injury or ineffectiveness, and it sounds as if the Detroit Tigers might be joining that group. Francisco Rodriguez blew save opportunities on both Saturday and Sunday in Oakland, with the Tigers losing both games instead of sweeping like they should have. Brad Ausmus didn't exactly give K-Rod a ringing endorsement after Sunday. Rodriguez's struggles contrast with the rest of the bullpen, which hasn't allowed a run in the last seven games. He has an 8.49 ERA and 2.06 WHIP, both of which would be career worsts by a mile. "It's already six weeks into the season. I shouldn't be pitching the way I'm pitching right now," Rodriguez said. "There's no excuse about it. … Right now, I'm not making any pitches. I'm not fooling anyone." If the Tigers opt to replace Rodriguez, left-handed set-up man Justin Wilson likely would be next in line.

Giants at Mets ( -112, 8 )

Getaway game at 1:10 p.m. ET and on the MLB Network (out of market). It's Matt Cain on the mound for the Giants. Cain (2-1, 4.70) had been the Giants' best pitcher for a couple of weeks with four straight strong starts and a combined 1.17 ERA, but he was bombed Friday in Cincinnati, allowing nine runs and 10 hits in 3.1 innings while walking six. Cain lost his lone 2016 start vs the Mets, giving up six runs in six innings. Jay Bruce is 8-for-19 with four RBIs off him. Jose Reyes is 10-for-22 with five extra-base hits. New York's Rafael Montero (0-2, 10.45) has taken Noah Syndergaard's spot in the rotation. Montero won't last long there if he allows five runs in 3.2 innings as he did last time out vs. the Marlins. There was some talk he might have been tipping his pitches. Montero has never faced the Giants. It's also possible the Mets go with left Tommy Milone (1-0, 6.43), who was just picked up off waivers from Milwaukee.

Key trends: The Giants are 3-9 in Cain's past 12 road starts. The Mets are 4-0 in Montero's past four at home. The "over/under" is 4-1 in Cain's past five at the Mets.

Early lean: Giants and over regardless of Mets pitcher.

Cardinals at Marlins (+100, 8)

ESPN game. Miami had to put third baseman Martin Prado back on the disabled list (and then his backup Miguel Rojas, too). Prado started the season on the DL with a hamstring injury that he sustained during the World Baseball Classic and re-injured it over the weekend. Prado is hitting .290 with two homers in 69 at-bats. The Fish go with Tom Koehler (1-1, 5.40). He has lasted five innings or fewer in four of his six starts and has been tagged for nine homers, tied for second-most in the NL. Dexter Fowler, if he plays, is 0-for-13 off him. Fowler has been dealing with a right shoulder strain, but it's not expected to put him on the DL. The Cardinals' Lance Lynn (4-1, 2.04) shut out the Braves on four hits over six innings in his last start. It also marked the 10th start for Lynn in seven seasons with the Cardinals in which St. Louis scored 10 or more runs. Only two other pitchers received at least 10 runs of support in 10 or more starts for St. Louis since 2011. Giancarlo Stanton is 2-for-12 against him with a homer and six strikeouts.

Key trends: The Cards are 4-0 in Lynn's past four vs. Miami. The Marlins are 1-5 in Koehler's past six at home. The under is 15-6-1 in Lynn's past 22 on the road. The over is 4-1 in Koehler's past five.

Early lean: Cardinals and under.

Orioles at Nationals (-160, 7.5)

Baltimore loses the DH as this interleague home-and-home switches to D.C. That's usually Mark Trumbo, but he might slide over to right field. The Birds go with lefty Wade Miley (1-1, 2.27). He lasted just two-thirds of an inning last time out after being struck by line drives off the bats of two consecutive White Sox hitters in the first inning. The first was off his pitching hand, and the second the back of his left leg. It was the shortest start of Miley's career. Bryce Harper is 4-for-7 off him. Ryan Zimmerman is 5-for-10 with three doubles. Washington's Stephen Strasburg (3-1, 2.66) lasted a season-low 5.2 innings Friday at the Phillies but didn't allow a run. He was pulled after 119 pitches as he walked four. Strasburg has faced the Orioles twice in his career and has a 2.25 ERA. Manny Machado is 3-for-3 off him. Trumbo is 1-for-6 with a homer.

Key trends: The Orioles are 5-2 in Miley's past seven on the road. The Nats are 4-0 in Strasburg's past four interleague starts. The over is 4-1 in his past five vs. the AL.

Early lean: Nationals and over.

Royals at Rays (-173, 7)

Kansas City's Jason Hammel (1-3, 5.53) faces his former team; he started his career with Tampa Bay in 2006 and stayed there through 2008. Hammel comes off his first win a Royal, giving up one run and three hits to the Indians. That ended a six-start winless streak dating back to Sept. 19 while he was with the Cubs. Colby Rasmus is 6-for-19 off him with two homers. Evan Longoria is 3-for-15 against his former teammate. Tampa Bay ace Chris Archer (2-1, 3.57) struck out a season-high 11 on Friday against Toronto but took a no-decision in allowing three earned in six innings. Archer was 0-2 with a 4.73 ERA last year against Kansas City. Alcides Escobar hits .600 against him in 15 at-bats. Lorenzo Cain is 5-for-10 with a homer.

Key trends: The Rays are 5-11 in Archer's past 16 at home. The under is 13-6 in his past 19 there.

Early lean: Rays on runline and under.

Red Sox at Brewers (-110, 9.5)

Boston loses the DH, which usually is Hanley Ramirez. It sounds like John Farrell is planning to let Ramirez play first base at least some in this series and perhaps replace him later in the games defensively with Gold Glover Mitch Moreland. The Red Sox start Kyle Kendrick. The long-time Phillies right-hander spent all of last season in Triple-A and was with Colorado in 2015. His Boston debut last Thursday didn't go well as Kendrick was roughed up for six runs and eight hits in four innings of a loss to the Orioles. Milwaukee's Ryan Braun hits him hard, going 9-for-21 with two homers. Milwaukee's Chase Anderson (2-0, 2.86) has allowed four earned in each of his past two starts after not giving up more than two earned in his first four. He has never faced Boston. Ramirez is 1-for-8 off him.

Key trends: The Brewers are 1-4 in Anderson's past five at home. The under is 4-1 in those five.

Early lean: Brewers and over.

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