Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: Tuesday, May 9, 2017, Opening Line Report

by Alan Matthews - 5/8/2017

The headline of a Buster Olney story over the weekend said it all: "Matt Harvey at a career crossroads." I completely agree with that. Harvey once was the most popular Met and the best of all those good young pitchers. He was brilliant in 2012-13 and in 2015 after returning from Tommy John surgery. Harvey's starts were big events at Citi Field and you would see many fans dressed up in Batman gear because of Harvey's nickname, the "Dark Knight." Things have not gone well for Harvey since. He struggled big time last season before going down to another major injury. He's just 2-2 with a 5.14 ERA in 2017 and was suspended by the team for three days on Sunday, the day he was supposed to start vs. Miami. The Mets wouldn't say what the suspension was for, but it leaked out because it always does: Harvey played golf on Saturday and after the round said he developed a headache and called the team, saying he was going home instead of the ballpark. The Mets need to keep their guys off the golf course, as in 2015 Yoenis Cespedes injured himself on the course and the team had to tell him to stop playing so often. The Mets are reportedly getting fed up with Harvey's antics and could look to trade him, although it would be for pennies on the dollar unless he starts pitching better before the trade deadline. Harvey, who may file a grievance over this suspension, will be a free agent in the fall of 2018.

Rangers at Padres ( +114, 8 )

Lone matinee on the schedule at 3:40 p.m. ET - shown on the MLB Network (out of market) -- and the Rangers lose the DH for the interleague matchup; either Shin-Soo Choo or Mike Napoli usually plays DH, but Choo can play the outfield and Napoli first base if need be. A.J. Griffin (3-0, 3.54) gets the call and pitches in his hometown (he went to the University of San Diego) and against the Padres for the first time in his career. Griffin has allowed just one earned run combined over his past two outings. Erick Aybar is 2-for-8 with a homer against him. The Friars' Jered Weaver (0-3, 5.51) might not have a job much longer. The Padres have lost all six of his starts and he was torched for 10 runs in four innings last time out vs. the Rockies. He knows the Rangers well from his Angels days. Napoli probably will play first since he's 13-for-35 career off him with three homers. Choo probably is in the outfield since he's a .405 hitter off Weaver in 42 at-bats.

Key trends: The Rangers are 6-0 in Griffin's past six on Tuesday. The "over/under" is 4-1 in his past five.

Early lean: Rangers and over.

Nationals at Orioles (+150, 8.5)

Battle of the Beltway with Washington adding the DH. The Orioles lost All-Star closer Zach Britton back to the DL over the weekend, but Brad Brach has filled in very well for him this season. Will Bryce Harper play here? He hadn't as of Monday since leaving Thursday's game with groin tightness, though there's no indication he'll be placed on the disabled list. Perhaps Harper could DH to save some wear and tear. Washington's Max Scherzer (4-2, 2.66) dominated his former Arizona team last time out, allowing one run and two hits while striking out a season-high 11 over seven innings. He threw eight shutout innings vs. the Birds last year. Adam Jones is 12-for-25 off him with three homers. Baltimore's Ubaldo Jimenez (1-1, 6.58) has gone more than 4.1 innings just once this season. He came out of the bullpen for the first time in 2017 last time out and threw three scoreless innings in Boston. Daniel Murphy is 3-for-14 off him with a homer and four RBIs.

Key trends: The Nats are 14-3 in Scherzer's past 17 following a quality start in his last appearance. The Birds are 8-1 in Jimenez's past nine interleague starts. The over is 4-1 in Scherzer's past five on the road. It's 7-3-1 in Jimenez's past 11 at home.

Early lean: Nationals and over.

Indians at Blue Jays (+135, 8.5)

Rematch of last season's ALCS, and of course the Jays lost slugger Edwin Encarnacion in free agency to the Tribe. Monitor the status of Indians outfielder Michael Brantley for the next few days. He left Sunday's game with a sprained ankle. Brantley is hitting .283 with five homers and 17 RBIs in 25 games. The Tribe start Carlos Carrasco (3-2, 2.18). He beat the Tigers last time out, giving up two runs and five hits over six innings. Carrasco's WHIP of 0.82 is third in the AL. Opponents are hitting just .184 against him, which ranks fifth in the American League. Kendrys Morales is 3-for-16 off him with six strikeouts; Morales replaced Encarnacion and has outperformed him thus far. Former Dodger Mike Bolsinger makes his Blue Jays debut. The 26-year-old has appeared in four games for Triple-A Buffalo thisseason, posting a 1.46 ERA with 18 strikeouts in 12.1 innings.Over his MLB career, Bolsinger has started 36 games, compiling an 8-16 record with a 4.61 ERA. He was acquired last season from L.A. for Jesse Chavez.

Key trends: The Indians are 4-1 in Carrasco's past five on Tuesday. The under is 7-0 in his previous seven starts.

Early lean: Indians and under.

Giants at Mets (-119, 8)

New York got some rare good news on Sunday when an MRI on the thumb of shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera came back clean. He left Saturday's game injured after diving to his right to make a play in the hole. There was some talk that if Cabrera were to go on the DL that the team would call up shortstop Amed Rosario, one of the top prospects in baseball. But that apparently won't happen now regardless. Cabrera, 31, is batting .260 with three home runs and four doubles in 28 games. Jose Reyes moved over to short to replace him on Sunday and Wilmer Flores played third base. The Mets go with Zach Wheeler (1-2, 4.78) for this one.His last start was eventually postponed by rain after hit began so his numbers from that are scrubbed. Wheeler has a 5.17 career ERA against the Giants, the organization that drafted him sixth overall in 2009. Buster Posey is 0-for-6 off him. The Giants' Jeff Samardzija (0-4, 5.03) comes off by far his best start of the season, allowing no earned runs over eight innings with 11 strikeouts at the Dodgers in a no-decision. He's 0-1 with a 3.38 ERA in four lifetime appearances at Citi Field. Jay Bruce is 9-for-37 off him with 12 strikeouts.

Key trends: The Giants are 1-7 in Samardzija's past eight during Game 2 of a series. The Mets are 0-5 in Wheeler's past five at home. The under is 4-1-1 in Samardzija's past six on the road. The over is 4-0 in Wheeler's past five at home.

Early lean: Mets and under.

Twins at White Sox (+114, 8.5)

Twins second baseman Brian Dozier went for X-rays and an ultrasound on his injured left ankle, and the X-rays came back negative. He hasn't played since Friday, but the team believes he might be able to return here. The Twins blew it not trading Dozier after his huge 2016 season - they were in deep talks with the Dodgers -- as he's hitting only .229 with four homers. It's former White Sox lefty Hector Santiago (3-1, 2.78) for the Twins. He pitched for Chicago from 2011-13. Santiago took a no-decision vs. the Pale Hose on April 16 despite seven shutout innings. Jose Abreu is just 1-for-14 off him. Chicago's Mike Pelfrey (0-2, 5.02) has yet to last more than 5.1 innings in his three starts. He pitched for the Twins from 2013-15. Dozier is 2-for-8 against his former teammate.

Key trends: The Twins are 5-2 in their past seven after an off day. The over is 8-1 in Minnesota's past nine overall.

Early lean: Twins and over.

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