Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: Thursday, May 18, 2017, Opening Line Report

by Alan Matthews - 5/17/2017

Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Danny Duffy

We are reaching the time of the year when teams can call up top prospects and not worry about future service time regarding free agency and arbitration. I'm definitely not going into how all that works because I don't really understand it, but the Cleveland Indians called up one of their top prospects Tuesday in outfielder Bradley Zimmer. The Tribe needed someone out there with Abraham Almonte just landing on the 10-day disabled list because of a right biceps strain. Fellow outfielders Brandon Guyer and Austin Jackson are also on the DL. Zimmer, 24, was the team's No. 21 overall pick in the 2014 draft from the University of San Francisco. Zimmer was batting .294 in Triple-A this season with five homers, two triples, 11 doubles and nine stolen bases in 33 games. MLB.com ranks Zimmer as the No. 19 prospect in all of baseball. One scouting report says: "Zimmer is a true center fielder with the speed and arm strength to stick at the position over the long haul. At his best, he could be a 20-20 player." Zimmer debuted with the Tribe on Tuesday and was 0-for-3 with three strikeouts. Welcome to the Show, rook!

Nationals at Pirates (TBA)

Getaway day game for this series finale with a 12:35 p.m. ET start. Washington's Tanner Roark (3-1, 3.88) comes off his shortest outing of the season as he went 4.2 innings and allowed four runs and three walks (110 pitches) in a no-decision vs. the Phillies - his third time facing them already. Roark threw eight shutout innings in his lone start vs. Pittsburgh a year ago. Andrew McCutchen is 2-for-5 with a homer against him. The Bucs' Tyler Glasnow (1-3, 7.98) was mauled in the third inning last time out in Arizona for seven runs and two homers in his second straight shaky start. Opponents are batting .315 against Glasnow in his seven starts this season. He has allowed four runs over three innings in his lone career outing vs. Washington. Anthony Rendon is 2-for-2 off him with two RBIs.

Key trends: The Nats are 6-0 in Roark's past six vs. the NL Central. The "over/under" is 4-0-1 in his past five.

Early lean: Shouldn't be TBA as pitchers appear set. I expect Nats around -15 0 and a total of 8.5 I like Washington and the under regardless with that early start.

Orioles at Tigers ( -103, 9.5 )

Another getaway series finale with a first pitch of 1:10 p.m. ET. The Birds go with ace Dylan Bundy (5-1, 2.26), whom I believe will be an All-Star this year for the first time. Bundy has had eight starts this year and they've all been quality. Last time out, he took a no-decision in Kansas City, allowing two runs and four hits over six with eight Ks. Only a few Tigers have seen him. Justin Upton and Jose Igelsias are each 0-for-1. Detroit's Jordan Zimmermann (3-2, 6.28) has allowed at least four earned in five of his seven outings. He tagged for 10 hits in just 5.1 innings last time out in a loss at the Angels. Zimermann owns a 5.82 ERA in seven career starts against Baltimore, his worst mark against any AL club he's faced at least three times. Chris Davis is 4-for-7 against him with two homers. Adam Jones also has two homers off Zimmermann.

Key trends: The Orioles have won their past four on Thursday. The Tigers are 2-5 in Zimmermann's past seven vs. teams with a winning record. The under is 7-0-1 in Bundy's past eight on five days of rest.

Early lean: Orioles and over.

Rockies at Twins (-121, 9)

Colorado adds the DH for this interleague game at 1:10 p.m. ET. Twins fans are starting to get excited about baseball again, and I believe this team could hang around the wild-card race if Jose Berrios (1-0, 1.17), the franchise's top pitching prospect, has a good season. He was awful in 14 starts last year with an 8.02 ERA but looked like a new pitcher in his 2017 debut on May 13 in Cleveland, allowing one run and two hits over 7.2 innings. It's Berrios' first-ever look at the Rockies. They go with Tyler Chatwood (3-5, 5.25). He allowed five earned runs for the third time in his past four starts Friday in a loss to the Dodgers. Chatwood also has control issues as he's fourth in the NL with 22 walks. The only Twin to ever face him is Jason Castro, who is 0-for-2.

Key trends: The Rockies are 12-5 in Chatwood's past 17 on the road. The Twins are 0-6 in Berrios' past six at home. The over is 5-1 in Berrios' past six at home.

Early lean: Rockies and over.

Yankees at Royals (-103, 9)

A Fox Sports 1 national telecast. New York starts lefty rookie Jordan Montgomery (2.2, 4.19). He's essentially going to give you six innings but no more and allow three runs or so. Montgomery gave up a season-high four runs and eight hits last time out in a loss to Houston. If the Yankees do make a move for starting pitching eventually, I do believe he'll be the odd-man out unless someone gets hurt. Montgomery hasn't faced the Royals. K.C. lefty Danny Duffy (2-3, 3.38) has had back-to-back quality starts after allowing six earned runs in each of his two previous. He has allowed only two homers in 50.2 innings all season. That could be tested here as Matt Holliday is 3-for-6 off him with a homer. Aaron Hicks, Chase Headley and Chris Carter also have all gone yard against Duffy.

Key trends: The Yankees are 5-0 in their past five vs. a lefty. The Royals are 1-5 in Duffy's past six on five days of rest. The under is 5-1 in Duffy's past six.

Early lean: Yankees and under.

Marlins at Dodgers (-183, 8)

It's possible the Dodgers could activate first baseman Adrian Gonzalez off the DL here as he started a minor-league rehab Tuesday and was only expected to need a couple of games. If not here, it should be Friday. Dodgers lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu (1-5, 4.99) just doesn't look right. He came off the 10-day disabled list and was rocked for 10 runs and eight hits over four innings at Coors Field. He was so good in 2013-14 but hasn't been the same since missing all of 2015 and most of last year. Miami's Christian Yelich is 1-for-4 off him with an RBI. The Marlins go with Edinson Volquez (0-5, 4.41), who returned from his own DL stint on Saturday and allowed two runs and four hits over six innings in a loss to Atlanta. The good news was his fastball hit 96.1 mph a few times. If Gonzalez is back, he's 6-for-16 off Volquez with two homers. Justin Turner is 6-for-12 with two doubles and a dinger.

Key trends: The Marlins are 0-4 in Volquez's past four on the road. The under is 5-1-1 in his past seven overall.

Early lean: Marlins and over.

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