Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: 8/5/2017, Opening Line Report

by Alan Matthews - 8/4/2017

Here's hoping that Miami's Giancarlo Stanton wins the home run title this season, which he is favored to do at BetOnline , as the sports fans in south Florida could use some good news. It's been a rough calendar year or so down there. The Marlins stink and lost their face of the franchise, Jose Fernandez, in a fatal boating accident late last season. Pitcher Edinson Volquez, who threw a no-hitter earlier this year, was to have Tommy John surgery Friday and potentially miss all of 2018 - while being paid $13 million in the final year of his contract. Shortstop JT Riddle will also miss the rest of the season because of injuries, manager Don Mattingly said earlier this week. The news isn't any better in the other major sports. The NHL's Panthers missed the playoffs. So did the NBA's Heat, while also saying goodbye to franchise icon Dwyane Wade, who left for Chicago. And on Thursday, the Dolphins saw starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill go down with a knee injury, the same knee Tannehill suffered a partial ACL tear in last season. Tannehill apparently avoided a season-ending torn ACL this time, but he still could have season-ending surgery to fix the problem once and for all. Even if not, he's likely to miss several weeks. The Fins made the playoffs last year for the first time since 2008, but that's not likely to repeat. Good thing Miami offers plenty of other social distractions, and at least the football Hurricanes should be quite good in 2017.

Dodgers at Mets ( +160, 9 )

Fox Sports 1 game at 4:05 p.m. ET. Dodgers lefty Rich Hill (8-4, 3.35) comes off a win over the Giants, allowing one run and two hits over 5.2 innings. He had a spectacular July - the guy can pitch, it's just a matter of staying healthy - with a 4-0 record, 1.45 ERA and just 19 hits given up in 31 innings. Hill beat the Mets on June 21 (5 IP, 1 ER). New York's Curtis Granderson is 2-for-5 with a homer against him; Granderson could be an August trade candidate. Ditto teammates Asdrubal Cabrera and Jay Bruce. The Mets counter with Seth Lugo (5-3, 4.53). He lost in Seattle last time out in allowing five runs over five innings and finished July at 2-2 with a 5.29 ERA. Lugo has never faced the Dodgers; he could be a trade candidate this offseason as the Mets' rotation would be full if everyone is healthy. The Cubs sniffed around the 27-year-old at this year's deadline.

Key trends: The Dodgers are 6-0 in Hill's past six vs. teams with a losing record. The Mets are 6-1 in Lugo's past seven at home. The "over/under" has gone under in five of Hill's past six. The over is 6-1-1 in Lugo's previous eight.

Early lean: Mets on runline and over.

Yankees at Indians (-139, 9)

MLB Network game. Cleveland has lost stellar lefty reliever Andrew Miller, a big reason the Tribe made last year's World Series, to the DL with right knee tendinitis. Miller, who was acquired from the Yankees in July 2016, is 4-3 with two saves and a 1.67 ERA in 46 appearances this season, but the knee clearly was bothering him as he had walked 10 batters in the past 21 innings. He walked only nine in 74 1/3 innings last season. The Indians start Danny Salazar (4-5, 4.63). He held the White Sox to two runs and three hits over six in his last start. New York's Brett Gardner and Didi Gregorius each have a homer off him in eight at-bats. Yankees rookie lefty Jordan Montgomery (7-6, 4.15) lasted a career-low 2 2/3 innings in his last start vs. the Rays, allowing four runs and six hits. He could be shifted to the bullpen after this outing with the addition of Yu Darvish. Montgomery has never faced Cleveland.

Key trends: The Yanks are 0-5 in Montgomery's past five vs. teams with a winning record. The over is 7-3 in his previous 10. The over is 4-1 in Cleveland's past five vs. a lefty.

Early lean: Indians and over.

Cardinals at Reds (-121, 9.5)

St. Louis continues to hang on the periphery of the playoff chase, which is perhaps why it didn't trade pitcher Lance Lynn, a free agent-to-be, at the deadline - although he's another potential August candidate. Lynn (9-6, 3.20) was one of the National League's best pitchers in July with a 3-1 record and 1.47 ERA. He's 1-0 with a 1.64 ERA in two starts this year vs. the Reds. Joey Votto is 12-for-27 career off him but hasn't homered. Cincinnati rookie Luis Castillo (2-4, 3.56) looks like a nice find; he was acquired this offseason from Miami in the Dan Straily deal. And Castillo comes off a win over those Marlins, throwing a career-high eight innings with one run and three hits allowed. The 24-year-old has yet to see the Cardinals.

Key trends: The Cardinals are 11-5 in Lynn's past 16 vs. the Reds. The over is 9-3-1 in his past 13.

Early lean: Cardinals and under.

Blue Jays at Astros (-160, 9.5)

Marco Estrada, Toronto's scheduled starter Saturday, is an August trade candidate, whether he clears waivers or to the team that claims him. The Jays have no more use for Estrada (4-7, 5.19) as he'll be a free agent after the season. Estrada comes off a strong outing at the White Sox (7 IP, 1 ER) but hasn't won since late May. He was quite good the first two months of this year and all last season, so he's worth a shot by some contender. For example, Houston. The Astros counter with Charlie Morton (9-4, 3.77). He's one of the hardest throwers in the majors this year in terms of average fastball and has allowed only two runs and five hits over 13 innings in his past two starts. Morton won in Toronto on July 7, surrendering one run over six. Steve Pearce hits him well, going 4-for-5 with two RBIs.

Key trends: The Jays are 1-4 in Estrada's past five vs. teams with a winning record. The Astros are 7-3 in Morton's past 10 at home. The over is 5-1 in Estrada's past six.

Early lean: Astros and over.

Mariners at Royals (-125, 9)

It's possible these two could meet in the wild-card game - or both miss the playoffs entirely. Kansas City has the advantage of still being in the AL Central race, while Seattle isn't within sight of first-place Houston in the AL West. Probably can't call Felix Hernandez (5-4, 4.28) the Mariners' ace any longer as King Felix has his highest ERA since 2006. Seattle has won his past two even though Hernandez has allowed four runs in each and not lasted six innings in either. He lost to Kansas City on July 4 (6 IP, 5 ER). New Royal Melky Cabrera is 11-for-28 career off him with a homer and five RBIs. Kansas City lefty Danny Duffy (7-6, 3.42) has given up just one earned in each of his past two starts spanning 13.1 innings. In seven career games -- five starts -- against the Mariners, Duffy is 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA. Robinson Cano is 6-for-17 against him with a homer.

Key trends: The Mariners are 1-5 in Hernandez's past six in K.C. The Royals are 4-1 in Duffy's previous five against Seattle. The under is 5-2 in Hernandez's past seven vs. Kansas City.

Early lean: Royals and under.

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Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: 8/5/2017, Opening Line Report

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