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Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: 8/4/2017, Opening Line Report


by - 8/3/2017

Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Justin Verlander

I'll admit that I'm a Cubs fan, although as a baseball writer I don't let that color my betting choices. My first thought Tuesday night when Washington ace and Cy Young favorite Max Scherzer left early against the Marlins was that the Cubbies were returning to the NLCS if that was serious. The Nationals already have their second-best pitcher, Stephen Strasburg, on the disabled list with a nerve impingement in his pitching elbow, and he hasn't proven able to stay healthy by the end of a season. The Cubs and Nationals almost surely are going to play in the NLDS because Washington is running away with the NL East and the Cubs should win the NL Central. The Dodgers will have the Senior Circuit's best record and thus play the wild-card winner. The Nationals got some good news, though, in that Scherzer didn't have arm troubles but neck discomfort due to sleeping wrong and hopes to make his next start. Before he left, Scherzer hit the first homer of his big-league career to give himself a 3-0 lead. So he lost a likely victory -- and so did Washington as it blew an eventual 6-0 lead and lost 7-6. Speaking of Nationals-Cubs …

Nationals at Cubs ( -152, TBA )

MLB Network game at 2:20 p.m. ET from Wrigley - the Cubs could still catch Washington for the second seed in the NL, especially with a sweep this weekend. But the Nats get to beat up on teams inside their NL East, while the Cubs' Central is better other than the Reds. The Nationals were hoping to activate Strasburg for this start, but that's not going to happen quite yet. Maybe next weekend. It's going to be Tanner Roark (8-7, 4.93) here. He lost last Saturday vs. Colorado, allowing four runs over five innings with four walks. Chicago's Kyle Hendricks (4-3, 3.80) has been solid in two starts since returning from about six weeks on the DL, allowing two earned runs over 9.1 innings. He has had a bit of a short leash as he builds up arm strength again. Hendricks didn't face Washington in D.C. earlier this season. Ryan Zimmerman is 0-for-9 career off him. Bryce Harper has a homer in 10 at-bats.

Key trends: The Nats are 1-4 in their past five after an off day. The Cubs are 0-4 in Hendricks' past five series openers. The "over/under" has gone under in six of the past eight meetings overall.

Early lean: Day off benefits Nats, and their bullpen will be rested so take them.

Tigers at Orioles (-129, 9.5)

The Tigers listened on Justin Verlander at the trade deadline but probably would feel more comfortable dealing him in the offseason when the fan backlash wouldn't be as high. GM Al Avila says he doesn't expect to make a deal for Verlander this month if he clears waivers. Verlander (6-7, 4.29) won for the first time since June 27 last time out vs. Houston, shutting out the AL's best offense on five hits over six innings. It's his first look at Baltimore in 2017. The Virginia native is 7-1 with a 2.63 ERA in nine starts at Camden Yards. Chris Davis is 7-for-29 off him with 14 strikeouts. Baltimore's Kevin Gausman (8-7, 5.37) has turned his season around of late with just one run allowed and 16 hits over his past three starts spanning 22.2 innings. In two starts prior to that, he gave up 13 runs and 16 hits over seven innings. Your guess is as good as mine as to which guy shows up here. Miguel Cabrera is 2-for-10 off him with three RBIs.

Key trends: The Tigers are 8-2 in Verlander's past 10 in Baltimore. The over is 5-2 in his past seven there.

Early lean: Tigers and over.

Yankees at Indians (-130, 9.5)

Also an MLB Network game and could be an ALDS preview because Houston is most likely going to face the wild-card winner so the East and Central winners would square off in the division series. This will be the Yankee debut of left-hander Jaime Garcia (5-7, 4.29), who was acquired by the Twins, pitched once for them and then flipped to New York. Garcia is working on a string of three straight quality starts, the first two of those while with Atlanta. The only Indian to have faced him is Edwin Encarnacion, who is 1-for-6. Cleveland's Trevor Bauer (9-8, 5.25) has won back-to-back starts in allowing four earned and 13 hits over 13 innings. Bauer was originally slated to pitch Wednesday in the series finale vs. Boston, but that was rained out and apparently Manager Terry Francona wanted ace Corey Kluber to pitch Thursday's series opener against the Yankees and thus moved Bauer back. New York's Brett Gardner is 4-for-14 off Bauer with two doubles and five walks.

Key trends: The Yankees are 6-1 in their past seven in Game 2 of a series. The under is 8-1-1 in their past 10 vs. teams with a winning record. The over is 4-1 in the past five between these two.

Early lean: Yankees and over.

Dodgers at Mets (-105, 8)

Great pitching matchup here as Yu Darvish makes his Dodgers debut. L.A. didn't have to give up anyone off its major-league roster or its top two overall prospects to get him. The Yankees and Cubs gave up a lot more to get Sonny Gray and Jose Quintana, respectively, but both those guys have at least two more years of team control and Darvish is headed to free agency. Darvish (6-9, 4.01) is coming off a career-high 10 earned runs in his last start on July 26 against the Marlins. For the season, his ERA, strikeouts per nine innings (9.7) and home runs per nine innings (1.3) are all career worsts. But he has a 2.49 ERA on the road, compared to a 5.38 ERA at hitter-friendly Globe Life Park in Arlington. Yoenis Cespedes has faced him more than any Met, going 3-for-16 with a homer and 11 strikeouts. The Mets' Jacob deGrom (12-4, 3.29) had his eight-game winning streak snapped last time out, allowing two earned over six in a low-scoring loss in Seattle. The Dodgers' Justin Turner is 0-for-10 career against him.

Key trends: The Mets are 10-1 in deGrom's past 11 series openers. They are 4-1 in his previous five against L.A. and the under is 4-1 in those five.

Early lean: Like the under more than the side (Mets).

Marlins at Braves (-109, 9.5)

It's already known that the Braves have put R.A. Dickey on waivers, but I doubt the knuckleballer is claimed. He wouldn't be a bad pickup for some team looking for a No. 5 starter to throw six innings or so each time out. Dickey (6-7, 4.08) allowed just one unearned run over seven innings last time out against the Phillies. He lost in Miami on May 14 (7 IP, 3 ER). Atlanta has officially shifted its focus to 2018 by calling up top position player prospect Ozzie Albies, and he will now be the every-day second baseman. The team also has given up on the Freddie Freeman third base experiment, and he's back at first. That means Matt Adams moves to the left field, where he's terrible, or comes off the bench. Marlins lefty Adam Conley (4-3, 5.11) has thrown three straight quality starts to lower his ERA from 7.53. He hasn't faced Atlanta in 2017. Freeman is 4-for-9 off him.

Key trends: The Marlins are 4-1 in Conley's past five on the road. The Braves are 1-5 in their past six against lefties. The over is 9-2-1 in Conley's past 11.

Early lean: Marlins and over.

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