Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: 7/14/2017, Opening Line Report

by Alan Matthews - 7/13/2017

Aaron Judge and Brett Gardner celebrate for the Yankees in 2017.

Really no surprises on BetOnline's updated player props for the season . Yankees rookie Aaron Judge remains the -300 favorite to win the AL MVP and +130 leader to top the majors in homers as he currently has a threeHR lead over No. 2 George Springer of Houston. You can also get Judge at +650 to win the Triple Crown. That's not happening (no is -1200). For the AL Cy Young, Red Sox lefty Chris Sale is the heavy -250 favorite. Houston's Dallas Keuchel (+650) was pitching perhaps even better than Sale but injuries derailed his first half. In the National League, it's a two-man race between the Dodgers' Clayton Kershaw (-170) and Nationals' Max Scherzer (+130) for the Cy Young. Scherzer had a much better first half than he did last year in winning the Cy and I'm a bit surprised he's not favored. About the only place Kershaw is better than him thus far is in wins. For NL MVP, Arizona's Paul Goldschmidt, perhaps MLB's most overlooked star, is a +150 favorite to win his first such award. Washington's Bryce Harper (+400) is the only one close to him.

Cubs at Orioles ( -111, 10.5 )

Chicago will add the DH, which almost certainly will be Kyle Schwarber shifting from left field - amid rumors the Cubs are now open to trading him for a quality, cost-controlled young pitcher. The Orioles will welcome back slugging first baseman Chris Davis from the DL. He has been out since June 12 due to an oblique injury. Davis has 14 homers in 61 games but also 95 strikeouts. The disappointing Cubs start lefty Mike Montgomery (1-6, 3.75). Bit of an odd decision by Joe Maddon that Montgomery is his No. 1 choice out of the break. He pitched out of the bullpen Sunday vs. Pittsburgh and wasn't good. Davis is 0-for-1 career off him. Baltimore's Kevin Gausman (5-7, 5.85) had turned his season around but then was knocked around for six runs over four innings vs. the Twins in his final pre-break start. Only a few Cubs have seen him. Ben Zobrist is 6-for-11 with three doubles.

Key trends: The Cubs are 1-5 in their past six interleague games. The Orioles are an amazing 2-14 in Gausman's past 16 on Friday. The "over/under" is 6-2-1 in his past nine at home.

Early lean: Like over better than the side (Orioles).

Cardinals at Pirates (-126, 8.5)

Both clubs are still in the race in the mediocre NL Central even though both are under .500. Pittsburgh could still choose to be a seller, however, ahead of the July 31 trade deadline. That's because it's division title or bust - i.e. the wild card is out of reach - and the Bucs are seven games back of Milwaukee. Were they to make Gerrit Cole (7-7, 4.43) available, he would fetch plenty. Cole has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his past five starts. Cole is 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA in two starts this year vs. St. Louis. Matt Carpenter is 12-for-32 off him career with four homers and six RBIs. The Cards' Mike Leake (6-7, 3.12) has come back to earth after a stellar beginning to the season. In his last start, Leake pitched just 3 2/3 innings, allowing eight runs on nine hits against the Marlins. He's 1-0 with a 2.92 ERA in two starts this year against Pittsburgh. David Freese is a career .471 hitter off him in 34 at-bats.

Key trends: The Pirates are 4-1 in Cole's past five at home vs. St. Louis. The over is 5-1 in his past six against the Cards.

Early lean: Pirates and over.

Blue Jays at Tigers (-128, 9)

Detroit reportedly has already waived the white flag on the season and will be an active seller ahead of the deadline. The Jays are probably on the fence as they are six games under .500 but only five out of the second wild-card spot. This starts a very tough 10-game trip so they could buried by the end of it. Projected ace Aaron Sanchez (0-2, 4.85) has made only six starts this year due to blisters. He was destroyed in his last before the break by allowing eight runs in 1.2 innings vs. Houston. That was Sanchez's return from about six weeks on the DL. Detroit's Justin Upton is 3-for-5 career against him with two doubles. The Tigers' Justin Verlander (5-6, 4.73) is very available. He lost in Cleveland in his final start before the break but gave up just one run over 6.2 innings. Verlander has been much better at home this year with a 3.61 ERA. Jays All-Star Justin Smoak is 5-for-18 off him with three homers and 10 strikeouts.

Key trends: The Jays are 8-2 in Sanchez's past 10 series openers. The Tigers are 9-1 in Verlander's past 10 series openers. The under is 15-6-2 in Verlander's past 23 at home.

Early lean: Tigers and under.

Indians at A's (+148, 8)

This could well be the last start Sonny Gray makes in an Oakland uniform as the chatter being heard is that he will be dealt by the July 31 deadline because Gray has largely rebuilt his value after a disappointing and injury-plagued 2016 season. Milwaukee could be a surprise landing spot for him. Gray (4-4, 4.00) has allowed just four earned runs over 21 innings in his past three outings. His worst start of the year was May 30 in Cleveland when he was raked for seven runs in 4.2 innings. Brandon Guyer might get a spot start as he's 2-for-6 off Gray with two homers and five RBIs. Cleveland's Carlos Carrasco (10-3, 3.44) hasn't lost since June 3 and struck out 11 Tigers in his las start before the break. He became just the second Cleveland pitcher in history (after Justin Masterson in 2014) to record an immaculate inning, which is striking out the side on nine pitches. In his career vs. the A's, he is 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA in five games (four starts).

Key trends: The Indians are 7-1 in Carrasco's past eight vs. teams with a losing record. The under is 13-5 in his past 18 overall. The over is 4-1 in Gray's past five at home.

Early lean: Indians and under.

Rays at Angels (+111, 8.5)

The Angels are still in the wild-card race despite a 45-47 record as they welcome back the best position player in baseball, Mike Trout. He has been out since May 28, when the two-time American League MVP injured his thumb sliding headfirst into second base.The Angels went 19-20 during Trout's absence. He was voted an All-Star starter but opted to skip the game to continue rehab. Trout was off to an MVP start, hitting .337 with 16 homers, 36 RBIs and a ridiculous .461 on-base percentage in 47 games. Trout has never faced good-looking Rays rookie Jacob Faria (4-0, 2.11). He's the first pitcher since the Yankees' Masahiro Tanaka in 2014 with six quality starts in a row to start a career. The Angels start Ricky Nolasco (4-10, 5.06). He had thrown two straight scoreless starts but then remembered who he was and was blasted for eight runs in 1.2 innings last time out in Texas. He lost at Tampa Bay on May 24, giving up five runs (three homers) over six. Steven Souza is 3-for-6 with two homers off him.

Key trends: The Rays have won four series openers in a row. The Angels are 1-4 in their past five series openers. The under is 9-1-1 in the past 11 meetings.

Early lean: Angels and over.

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Start:	November 23, 2024 @ 8:00 PM
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