Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: 6/8/2017, Opening Line Report

by Alan Matthews - 6/7/2017

There's a chance the Boston Red Sox won't have their potentially dominant and lefty-heavy rotation all together but for one turn through the rotation this season. David Price debuted in 2017 on May 29 off spring shoulder problems. The Sox's second-best starter behind ace Chris Sale (lefty) while Price was sidelined was southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez (4-2, 3.54). However, last Thursday he injured his knee when he slipped in the bullpen during warmups prior to a game in Baltimore. He said the injury, diagnosed as a subluxation of his knee (dislocated kneecap), didn't bother him during a 94-pitch outing but flared up the following day. It sure looked like it bothered him as Rodriguez allowed a season-high (by far) seven runs in 5.2 innings in a loss to the Orioles. Rodriguez got a second opinion on his injured knee from Dr. James Andrews on Monday and was told to shut it down for 3-4 weeks to rest. So even in a best-case scenario after Rodriguez builds back up his arm stamina, he likely won't be back until late July. If rest and rehab don't work, season-ending surgery would be needed. Brian Johnson, yet another left-hander, is in line to take Rodriguez's spot in Boston's rotation for now.

Giants at Brewers ( +128, 8.5 )

A 2:10 p.m. ET first pitch from Miller Park in the series finale. The Giants had the fourth-highest payroll in MLB to start the season so they are likely ready to sell off some pieces - like Thursday's starter Johnny Cueto (5-5, 4.38), although Cueto might be inclined to not opt-out of his deal after this season unless his numbers improved. He comes off a quality start in Philadelphia (6 IP, 3 ER) but took the loss. He didn't walk anyone for the first time all year and struck out nine. Cueto has a 2.71 ERA in 20 career starts against Milwaukee. The Brewers should get third baseman Travis Shaw back from the paternity list for this one. He hasn't faced Cueto. Milwaukee's Matt Garza (2-2, 3.83) left his last start vs. the Dodgers on Saturday with chest soreness from a collision with Jesus Aguilar and had to cut a bullpen session short earlier this week so he won't go in his scheduled spot. It is expected to be Paolo Espino, who didn't make his scheduled Triple-A start Monday and it wasn't because of injury. Espino made a fill-in start May 19 at the Cubs, his MLB debut, and allowed three runs over four innings. In nine starts in Triple-A, Espino is 4-1 with a 3.26 ERA.

Key trends: The Giants are 21-5 in Cueto's past 26 on four days of rest. The "over/under" has gone under in four of his past six. The under is 4-1 in Milwaukee's past five vs. a right-hander.

Early lean: Giants and over.

Red Sox at Yankees (-124, 8)

ESPN game. Price (1-0, 3.00) gets his first look at the Yankees this season. He looked in midseason form Saturday in Baltimore in allowing one run and three hits with seven strikeouts over seven innings. It was Price's 250^th career start. Price is now 122-65 (.652) with a 3.22 ERA and 1,601 strikeouts in the 250 starts. Price is one of 395 pitchers to make 250 starts who debuted since earned runs became official in both leagues in 1913, and only six others have had a .650 winning percentage, an ERA of 3.25 or lower and 1,500 strikeouts over their first 250 starts. The only other active one is Clayton Kershaw. Price was 1-3 with a 7.89 ERA last year vs. New York. Gary Sanchez is 2-for-5 off him with two homers. The Yankees' Michael Pineda (6-3, 3.76) allowed a season-high five runs in a loss at Toronto last time out. Prior to that, Pineda had a string of nine starts with three earned runs or fewer allowed. The Sox's Mitch Moreland is 4-for-11 off him with two homers.

Key trends: The Sox are 6-2 in Price's past eight vs. the AL East. The Yanks are 5-1 in Pineda's past six at home. The under is 3-0-1 in his past five vs. Boston. The over is 4-1 in Price's past five vs. New York.

Early lean: Red Sox and under.

Marlins at Pirates (-139, 8.5)

Miami's hottest hitter, Justin Bour, has landed on the DL with a bone bruise in his right ankle. Bour was ice cold in April but since has batted .368 with 13 dingers and 31 RBIs. Overall, he's hitting .295 with 16 homers and 40 RBIs and has been better than overpaid Giancarlo Stanton. Bour missed nearly two months last season with an injury to his other ankle. The Fish go with Edinson Volquez here as he looks to become the second pitcher in MLB history with back-to-back no-hitters. Volquez (2-7, 3.79) rolled his ankle in the first inning Saturday vs. Arizona but continued and ended up striking out 10 with two walks. He needed only 98 pitches for the complete game. Volquez was the first pitcher to throw a non-perfect-game no-hitter and face the minimum number of batters (he got two double plays after walks) since Justin Verlander did so on May 7, 2011. The Pirates are one of Volquez's former teams. Andrew McCutchen is 6-for-17 off him with a homer. Pittsburgh's Gerrit Cole (3-5, 4.27) has not been sharp in his past three, allowing 16 runs (eight homers) over 14.2 innings. Miami's Christian Yelich is 7-for-14 against him with three homers.

Key trends: The Marlins are 0-6 in Volquez's past six on the road. The Bucs are 13-6 in Cole's past 19 at home vs. teams with a losing record. The under is 8-2 in his past 10 overall.

Early lean: Pirates and under.

Orioles at Nationals (-150, 9)

MLB Network game (out of market) and makeup of one rained out back in May. The Nats put outfielder Jason Werth on the DL, retroactive to June 4, with a left foot contusion. This is probably a move that's not made back when the DL stint was 15 days, but Washington felt it was smarter to just DL Werth and avoid playing with a short bench for a few days. The Orioles, meanwhile, lose the DH for this interleague matchup. It's Alec Asher (2-3, 3.62) on the bump for Baltimore. He made his fourth start of the season and 13^th appearance overall Friday vs. Boston and got the win, giving up two runs over 6.1 innings. The Nats' Daniel Murphy is 2-for-4 off him with a homer. Washington's Joe Ross (2-2, 7.34) might be on the verge of losing his rotation spot again as Ross has given up 11 runs and 19 hits over seven innings in back-to-back losses.

Key trends: The Nats are 6-2 in Ross' past eight at home. The over is 6-0-1 in his past seven there.

Early lean: Orioles and over.

Astros at Royals (+170, 9)

Houston's 11-game winning streak ended Tuesday in K.C. The team record of 12 straight wins was set in 2004. The pitching matchup certainly favors MLB's best team in this one as it's May's AL Pitcher of the Month Lance McCullers Jr. (6-1, 2.71). He'd be getting some Cy Young love if not for teammate Dallas Keuchel. McCullers was 4-0 with a 0.99 ERA in five starts in May but was a bit off Saturday in Texas in allowing four runs in 4.1 innings. It was the first time since April 26 that he allowed more than two earned runs in a start. McCullers took a no-decision on April 9 vs. the Royals (7 IP, 3 ER, 10Ks). Kansas City's Jason Hammel (2-6, 5.93) comes off a rare quality start in 2017, giving up three runs over 6.2 vs. Cleveland. He hasn't faced Houston this year. Carlos Beltran is 3-for-10 vs. Hammel with a homer.

Key trends: The Astros are 9-1 in McCullers' past 10 vs. teams with a losing record. The under is 5-1 in his previous six vs. teams with a losing record.

Early lean: Astros and under.

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Start:	November 23, 2024 @ 8:00 PM
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