Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: 6/21/2017, Opening Line Report

by Alan Matthews - 6/20/2017

Really disappointing news if you are a Yankees fan as the No. 2 overall prospect in baseball, infielder Gleyber Torres, needs Tommy John surgery due to a torn UCL in his left (non-throwing) elbow. Torres was the key piece the Bombers acquired from the Cubs last summer in the Aroldis Chapman trade. Torres had been so good in the minors that the rumors were the Yanks were going to call him up soon and use him as the starter at third - or at least see if he was ready to handle big-league pitching. New York's current third baseman, Chase Headley, isn't hitting much. The good news is obviously that Torres isn't a pitcher so the Tommy John surgery shouldn't really set him back long term; plus it's not even his throwing arm. He should be good to go next spring and would be an early 2018 AL Rookie of the Year favorite (unless this sets his development back and now won't debut in the majors until midway through next season). It remains to be seen if the Yanks will be in the market for a rental third baseman this season like perhaps the White Sox's Todd Frazier. Headley is still under contract next year at $13 million.

Nationals at Marlins ( +145, 8.5 )

A 12:10 p.m. ET first pitch. The next time Nats ace Max Scherzer pitches in Miami this season, it likely will be in the All-Star Game. Scherzer (8-4, 2.26) certainly would be a candidate to start for the NL. He dominated the Mets last time out in allowing one run and striking out 10 over eight innings. That's five straight games with double-digit strikeouts. Only three other active pitchers have compiled streaks of that length. Chris Sale tied his own MLB record with eight in a row earlier this year. It's Scherzer's first look this year at Miami, and he's a 6-2 with a 3.92 ERA against the Fish in his career. Christian Yelich is a .389 hitter off him with two homers in 18 at-bats. Miami's Dan Straily (5-4, 3.58) comes off his best start as a Marlin, shutting out Atlanta on four hits over 6.1 innings. He lost in Washington on April 5 (3.1 IP, 5 ER). Matt Wieters is 5-for-6 with two homers against him.

Key trends: The Nats are 5-1 in Scherzer's past six vs. Miami. The "over/under" is 4-1 in his previous five against them.

Early lean: Nats on runline and under.

Reds at Rays (-145, 9.5)

Also starts at 12:10 p.m. ET. Cincinnati has lost shortstop Zack Cosart, who is having a fabulous season, to the 10-day DL, retroactive to June 18, with a strained right quad. He figures to be a trade candidate by the end of July, although not a ton of contenders need a shortstop. Cosart's value would never be higher and the Reds probably can't afford him when he hits free agency. The Reds start Tim Adleman (4-3, 4.22). He lost to the Dodgers in his last start despite allowing only two runs over six. He has never faced Tampa Bay. The Rays counter with Erasmo Ramirez (3-2, 5.17). He was bombed for 10 runs and nine hits over 4.2 innings last time out in Detroit. Ramirez has never faced Cincinnati, which adds the designated hitter. Scooter Gennett has seen him, going 1-for-1.

Key trends: The Reds are 1-4 in Adelman's past five on the road. The Rays are 5-0 in Ramirez's past five at home. The over is 5-1 in Ramirez's past six at home.

Early lean: Reds and over.

Indians at Orioles (+144, 10.5)

The Orioles have lost shortstop J.J. Hardy for 4-6 weeks due to a fractured right wrist. He was hit there by a pitch Sunday. Hardy joins first baseman Chris Davis, who is out at least a month with a strained right oblique, infielder Ryan Flaherty (shoulder) and pitchers Darren O'Day (shoulder) and Zach Britton (forearm) on the disabled list. It's the third straight year that Hardy will miss significant time to injury. The Birds start Kevin Gausman (3-6, 6.60). He has allowed 16 runs in his past three starts. Batters are hitting .338 against him. Cleveland's Edwin Enarnacion has one hit, a homer, in 16 at-bats off Gausman. Cleveland's Carlos Carrasco (7-3, 3.21) beat the Twins in his last outing, allowing one run over 6.1 innings. He has been much better on the road, going 5-1 with a 2.89 ERA. Baltimore's Adam Jones is 1-for-9 with a dinger off him. Manny Machado is 2-for-3.

Key trends: The Indians are 8-2 in Carrasco's past eight vs. the AL East. The Orioles are 2-6 in Gausman's past eight vs. teams with a winning record. The under is 13-4 in Carrasco's past 17 on the road.

Early lean: Indians and over.

White Sox at Twins (-172, 10)

The Pale Hose have put center fielder Leury Garcia on the DL with a sprained finger. He has had a sneaky good season, batting .298 with nine doubles, one triple, six home runs, 22 RBIs and 28 runs scored. Chicago's David Holmberg (1-0, 2.63) has made four starts since transitioning from the bullpen. He has yet to last more than five innings. Holmberg has thrown two scoreless innings this year vs. the Twins. Minnesota's Jose Berrios (6-1, 2.75) pitched a season-high eight innings in his last start vs. Seattle, earning a win by allowing two runs. Berrios is only the second Twins pitcher since 1980 to win at least six of his first seven appearances in one season. The other was Brad Radke in 2001. The White Sox's Melky Cabrera and Todd Frazier are each 1-for-2 off him.

Key trends: The Twins are 2-7 in Berrios' past nine at home. The under is 9-1-1 in his past 11.

Early lean: Twins and under.

Tigers at Mariners (-135, 8.5)

Detroit will be without DH Victor Martinez for the team's West Coast trip as he spent a few days in the hospital over the weekend with an irregular heartbeat. That had to really hit home to Tigers manager Brad Ausmus as two of his former teammates, Darryl Kile and Ken Caminiti, died way too young from heart issues, though Ausmus was not playing with them at the time. Martinez is expected to be fine, but the Tigers will play it overly cautious. Tigers ace Justin Verlander (4-4, 4.50) hasn't won since May 20. He deserved it Thursday vs. Tampa with a quality start (7 IP, 2 ER). Verlander has had control problems this year and leads the AL with 42 walks. He allowed one unearned run vs. Seattle over seven on April 27. Kyle Seager is 7-for-17 vs. Verlander with two homers. Mariners lefty James Paxton (5-2, 3.23) has gotten progressively worse in four starts since returning from the DL. He was shelled for seven runs Friday in Texas over just 3.2 innings. Paxton was 4-0 with a 1.26 ERA through seven starts. The Tigers' Miguel Cabrera is 3-for-8 off him.

Key trends: The Tigers are 2-5 in Verlander's past seven in Seattle. The under is 7-2 in his past nine vs. the AL West. The under is 5-2 in Paxton's past seven at home.

Early lean: Tigers and under.

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