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Expert College Football Handicapping: Biggest Storylines from Fall Camps


by - 8/2/2017

Florida Gators wide receiver Tyrie Cleveland

Surely I'm not the only one that is confused by the naming involved when college football's fall camps start in late July. Regardless of what you want to call them, though, their arrival signals the start of the college football season (finally!), and that means that real game action will be here in no time flat. In other words, this is a great time no matter how little sense the name makes.

Teams are notoriously secretive at this time of year, so it is tough to get a real sense of what is actually going on with most major programs. It's an important time for bettors, though, because any information that can be procured - or good analysis, for that matter - can give you a big edge over casual bettors as the season starts up. Here, then, are four storylines that bettors need to do their best to understand as much as they can about as fall camps roll on:

Sam Darnold: BetOnline , and all the other books for that matter, have the USC sophomore QB as the strong Heisman favorite - he is at +425, and no one else is at better than +750. That is a massive amount of pressure for any guy, never mind one who didn't even enter last season as the starter. He won nine straight last year, though, and now as the holder of one of the most prestigious QB jobs on the planet he is the king of the world. TV has taught us that being the king isn't a safe, comfortable occupation, though. Critics will be more vicious. Opponents will be better prepared to face him. Fans will be less patient as their expectations for player and team have been stoked to extreme levels.

It's very possible that he will thrive under the glare of the spotlight and become a megastar. He certainly has talent behind him. It would hardly be the first time a preseason Heisman favorite crumbled, though, so if we see any signs of early struggles or concerns it could potentially be lucrative from a betting perspective.

New coaches: There are all sorts of high-profile coaching changes every year in college football, and this year certainly isn't an exception. What we want to focus on at this time of year are signs that things are not running smoothly with any of the new programs.

At this time of year new coaches should be so busy implementing new systems that we hear nothing from or about them aside from the odd puff piece. When we hear rumblings of concern or hints of chaos then we have reasons to believe that the new regime might not start out so great.

Willie Taggart started out with far too much negative drama at Oregon, but he has been pleasingly invisible recently. Will he stay that way? Can Lincoln Riley maintain calm and focus at Oklahoma after the shocking late retirement of Bob Stoops? Baylor has been an out-of-control circus for most of two years now. Is Matt Rhule the ringmaster who can get things back on track? Tom Herman has a ton of people who want him to succeed at Texas and at least as many who would love for him to fail worse than Charlie Strong did. Any clues about what to expect from these situations and others can be hugely valuable.

Notre Dame: The Irish are a unique beast in this sport. Their own TV contract. A schedule that certainly isn't easy. National support that far exceeds their alumni base. Sweetheart treatment in playoff and bowl consideration. They are a big deal. So, their utter and humiliating collapse last year to 4-8 was a very big deal for both fans and bettors. They started poorly and never improved. It was a mess in nearly every way.

On paper they should be a much better team this year - not at the peak of their accomplishment but very solid. But last year was a surprise, too, so we can't be sure. If things get off to another rocky start there will be even more player unrest than we saw signs of last year and coach Brian Kelly will quickly be on an uncomfortably hot seat. The pressure in South Bend is incredible right now, and the sooner we can get a sense of how well they will handle it, the better off we will be.

Florida's QB: Florida has won two straight division titles in the SEC East, but that has had as much to do with the pathetic state of the division as their accomplishments. They have certainly been improved under their current regime, but there are not many other major divisions they would have won once, never mind twice, with their last two seasons.

They face a tougher challenge in the division this year and a very tough opening game against Michigan. And at this point their QB situation is muddy. Malik Zaire arrived from Notre Dame, but his transfer happened late, and it's not like he was a megastar in his last stop. Luke Del Rio, who is best known for being the son of Jack and for being with his third college program despite only being a junior, won the starting job last year, but missed half the season due to injury. And youngsters like Feleipe Franks and Kyle Trask look to factor into the race as well. The school badly needs someone to grab the job and hold on tight, and the sooner we can get a sense that that has happened the better.

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