2015 Record: 5-11
2016 Las Vegas Season Win Total: 5.5
2016 Season Win Total Pick: 'Under'
Most football coaches - high school, college or pro - are dickheads. Between the mix of rage and daddy issues there is always a distinct, undeserved air of faux toughness and authority. Football coaches are generally delusional and antisocial dicks. Chip Kelly fits that mold.
But Chippy's problem is that he violated the direct correlation between how big of a dickhead you can be and how successful you are. He was too much of the former (going 27-21 in three years with Philly while dismantling a talented core) without enough of the latter. So he was shown the curb from Philadelphia and promptly scooped up by an even bigger jerk, 49ers owner Jed York. This looks like a match made in heaven.
The Jim Tomsula Era by the Bay was comically short and sweet. And now Kelly is tasked with overhauling a roster that was set up to play the antithesis to his fast-break style of football. The 49ers still have a decent offensive line and a potential star back in Carlos Hyde. Kelly will also enjoy better receivers than he had in Philadelphia. But the 49ers don't have a quarterback, as neither Blaine Gabbert nor Colin Kaepernick look like long-term solutions.
It has been a swift and severe fall from grace for the 49ers defense. This unit was a Top 5 total defense for four straight years from 2011-2014 before plummeting to No. 29 last year. NaVorro Bowman and Ahmad Brooks give them two solid leaders, and the 49ers secondary is still very strong . But it is going to take time for the 49ers defenders to adjust to Kelly's fast-paced offense, which will demand more plays and more time on the field for the defense. That works exactly the opposite of what Jim Harbaugh did so effectively, which was protect his defense by dominating time of possession.
The 49ers actually overachieved to get to 5-11 last year. Their Pythagorean Win Total was actually just 3.8, so this team was actually worse than its record. I think that Kelly's system will overachieve past the talent again this year. But that's only because his quirky style is good for a couple upsets. This team has three-win talent. So even if they steal a couple wins, I don't see this group getting to six.
49ers Regular Season Schedule (All times Eastern)
WEEK |
DATE |
OPPONENT |
TIME (ET) |
Location |
Result |
1 |
Mon, Sep 12th, 2016 |
St._Louis |
10:20 PM |
Levi's Stadium |
|
2 |
Sun, Sep 18th, 2016 |
atCarolina |
01:00 PM |
Bank of America Stadium |
|
3 |
Sun, Sep 25th, 2016 |
atSeattle |
04:05 PM |
CenturyLink Field |
|
4 |
Sun, Oct 2nd, 2016 |
Dallas |
04:25 PM |
Levi's Stadium |
|
5 |
Thu, Oct 6th, 2016 |
Arizona |
08:25 PM |
Levi's Stadium |
|
6 |
Sun, Oct 16th, 2016 |
atBuffalo |
01:00 PM |
Ralph Wilson Stadium |
|
7 |
Sun, Oct 23rd, 2016 |
Tampa_Bay |
04:05 PM |
Levi's Stadium |
|
8 |
Bye |
||||
9 |
Sun, Nov 6th, 2016 |
New_Orleans |
04:05 PM |
Levi's Stadium |
|
10 |
Sun, Nov 13th, 2016 |
atArizona |
04:25 PM |
U.of Phoenix Stadium |
|
11 |
Sun, Nov 20th, 2016 |
New_England |
04:25 PM |
Levi's Stadium |
|
12 |
Sun, Nov 27th, 2016 |
atMiami |
01:00 PM |
New Miami Stadium |
|
13 |
Sun, Dec 4th, 2016 |
atChicago |
01:00 PM |
Soldier Field |
|
14 |
Sun, Dec 11th, 2016 |
Ny_Jets |
04:05 PM |
Levi's Stadium |
|
15 |
Sun, Dec 18th, 2016 |
atAtlanta |
04:05 PM |
Georgia Dome |
|
16 |
Sat, Dec 24th, 2016 |
atSt._Louis |
04:25 PM |
L.A. Memorial Coliseum |
|
17 |
Sun, Jan 1st, 2017 |
Seattle |
04:25 PM |
Levi's Stadium |
|
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