The four-team College Football Playoff format dictates that at least one champion of a Power 5 conference is left out of the lucrative tournament. Like last year, it could once again be the Pac-12 in 2016.
The Pac-12 could be the deepest and most balanced conference in the nation. But it remains to be seen if the teams at the top are truly elite. The recently-released college football win totals from South Point would seem to reflect this idea. At just nine wins, Washington is pegged for the most victories in the conference. Even going "over" by a game would mean two losses for the Huskies, and that's probably not good enough for the playoff.
In any event, it figures to be a scramble for the Pac-12 as not much seems to separate the upper echelon. Below are the win totals for every team in the Pac-12 followed by a couple of selections.
|
Washington |
9 |
Over -110 Under -110 |
|
Stanford |
8.5 |
Over +100 Under -120 |
|
UCLA |
8.5 |
Over +100 Under -120 |
|
Oregon |
8 |
Over -110 Under -110 |
|
USC |
7.5 |
Over +100 Under -120 |
|
Utah |
7.5 |
Over +100 Under -120 |
|
Washington State |
7.5 |
Over -110 Under -110 |
|
Arizona |
6 |
Over -110 Under -110 |
|
Arizona State |
5 |
Over -120 Under +100 |
|
Colorado |
4.5 |
Over -110 Under -110 |
|
California |
4 |
Over -120 Under +100 |
|
Oregon State |
3.5 |
Over -110 Under -110 |
Washington State Cougars
The mad genius Mike Leach has built a winner in Pullman. The Cougars return 18 starters from last year's nine-win team, which includes first-team All-Pac 12 quarterback Luke Falk. Washington State is deep and talented at all offensive skill positions. Defensively, the Cougars took a big step forward last year with the arrival of coordinator Alex Grinch. They return four of the five starting defensive backs in Grinch's nickel-back system, as well as top-flight middle linebacker Peyton Pelluer.
So the talent to compete is there for Washington State. The schedule is reasonable as well. A 3-0 nonconference start seems likely. Additionally, the Cougars get Oregon, UCLA and Washington all at home. Nine wins isn't out of the questions.
The Pick: Over 7.5
USC Trojans
The Trojans have a first-year head coach and new starter at quarterback (either junior Max Browne or talented freshman Sam Darnold). Those are two unknowns right off the bat. Couple that with a brutal schedule and, though supremely talented, the Trojans could struggle to get to eight wins.
Consider this: USC opens with Alabama, closes with Notre Dame and in between face Stanford, Utah, Washington and Oregon, all on the road. That's about as tough as it can get.
Yes, new head coach Clay Helton has to be considered an upgrade from Steve Sarkisian. And he has plenty of talent to work with. But we just can't get past that schedule and uncertainty at quarterback.
The Pick: Under 8.5
UCLA Bruins
The Bruins return just four starters on offense, but that quartet includes "The Rosen One," sophomore quarterback Josh Rosen. Rosen lived up to his considerable hype immediately as a freshman last year and finished with 3,630 passing yards and 23 touchdowns with a 60.0 percent completion rate. Those numbers only figure to increase with a year of experience.
Defensively, eight starters return for the Bruins, including most of the secondary. The experience in the defensive backfield could be a key advantage in the typically pass-happy Pac-12.
As for the schedule, a win over Texas A&M in the season opener would go a long ways towards the Bruins reaching the needed nine wins to cash the "over." It's also a positive UCLA plays Stanford, Utah and USC all at home.
The Pick : Over 8.5
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