2016 Oregon Ducks Football Predictions and Season Win Total Picks

by Robert Ferringo - 8/10/2016

2015 Record: 9-4

2016 Las Vegas Season Win Total: 8.5 (over +125)

2016 Season Win Total Picks NCAA Football: 'Over'

I think the Oregon Ducks are at a crossroads. They spent 20 years gaining credibility and then over the past decade developed into a true college football powerhouse and one of the best programs in the nation. But they had their streak of 10-win seasons snapped at seven last year. And although they are expected to be among a group of teams competing for the Pac-12 title this fall, I think it is clear to everyone that they are no longer the juggernaut that ran roughshod over this league for most of the 2000s.

Mark Helfrich is entering his fourth season at the helm in Eugene. But it seems as if he is still struggling to find his way out of Chip Kelly's shadow. Oregon's championship run in 2014 came on the backs of Kelly's recruits. Helfrich lost offensive coordinator Scott Frost, and he still has to prove that he can continue to restock the Ducks with the top-end talent that Kelly was able to lure.

For the second straight year Oregon will rely on an FCS transfer at quarterback. I think that's a dangerous strategy, and we will see how Montana State transfer Dakota Prukop - whose team went 5-6 last season - adjusts. Fortunately, he will have one of the best running backs in the nation, Royce Freeman, to lean on.

Oregon will have to replace four of its top five tacklers on defense, including beast lineman DeForest Buckner. Oregon had the second-largest drop in defensive production in the country last year, allowing 14 points per game more last year than in 2014. Brady Hoke was brought in to rebuild this defense. Hoke is a hard-nosed guy with a solid coaching track record. But this is his first stint as a coordinator.

Oregon wasn't as bad as its 9-4 record looked last year. Two of their losses were in multiple-OT games, and a third was by just three points against Top 5 Michigan State. I don't know that they will be better this season from a talent standpoint. But I think that people are sleeping on this group a bit. Oregon has gone 49-30 against the spread the past six seasons, showing a profit in every year, and this might be the most undervalued they have been in some time.

I think Oregon will lose three regular season games this year. But I don't see four. Some books have their season win total at 8.0 with the 'over' at -130. I think that's a great wager as I see a four-loss campaign as the worst-case scenario and a 10-2 run and Pac-12 North title as the best.

2016 Oregon Ducks Schedule

DATE	OPPONENT	TIME (ET)	Location	Result
Sat, Sep 3rd, 2016	Uc_Davis	05:00 PM	Autzen Stadium
Sat, Sep 10th, 2016	Virginia	10:30 PM	Autzen Stadium
Sat, Sep 17th, 2016	atNebraska	03:30 PM	Tom Osborne Field
Sat, Sep 24th, 2016	Colorado	03:00 PM	Autzen Stadium
Sat, Oct 1st, 2016	atWashington_State	03:00 PM	Clarence Martin Stadium
Sat, Oct 8th, 2016	Washington	03:00 PM	Autzen Stadium
Fri, Oct 21st, 2016	atCalifornia	10:30 PM	Kabam Field
Sat, Oct 29th, 2016	Arizona_State	03:00 PM	Autzen Stadium
Sat, Nov 5th, 2016	atUsc	03:00 PM	Los Angeles Coliseum
Sat, Nov 12th, 2016	Stanford	03:00 PM	Autzen Stadium
Sat, Nov 19th, 2016	atUtah	02:00 PM	Rice-Eccles Stadium
Sat, Nov 26th, 2016	atOregon_State	03:00 PM	Reser Stadium

All Times EST

Robert Ferringo is one of the top football handicappers in the country and tallied an unrivaled $20,800 in football profit between 2011 and 2016, including his amazing 2013 NFL season in which he hit 62.1 percent (95-58). Robert has produced 14 of 22 winning football months and an amazing 37 of 57 winning football months over the past decade. Robert has eight of nine winning NFL preseasons and he is at nearly 60 percent winners over his last 750 totals picks. Also, Robert's proprietary KING College Football Betting System has posted three of four winning seasons and is 122-92 over the last three years (57.0 percent).

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