NFL Survivor Pools Strategy Advice and Predictions: Week 12

by Trevor Whenham - 11/22/2016

This week feels like a bit of a gift on the Survivor Pools front. It doesn't take a whole lot of intense insight and tireless research to find the four games this week that are the most playable. They all kind of jump of the page and smack you on the face. One of the teams is almost certainly not available to you, but there is a good chance that at least one of the other three teams are available to you. If they are then you should jump right in and jump on them. It doesn't matter which one of them you take if you have options - they are all equally likely to come through. Without further ado:

New York Giants at Cleveland: The Giants, reasonably under the radar, have the third most wins in the NFC. They are taking care of business, even if it isn't fancy. The Browns aren't fancy, either - they are just horrible. They can't even begin to protect a quarterback, and that means yet more uncertainty at the position. The players are sniping at the front office, and no one seems to be having any fun at all. How could you when you play in Cleveland? This is a serious mismatch - like every Cleveland game is. I don't know about you, but I haven't picked the Giants yet - in any of my Survivor Pools. When you can pick a team with seven wins against a winless team in Week 12 you don't really need to spend too much time thinking. New York is a very comfortable pick here.

Miami vs. San Francisco: The Dolphins looked pretty rough early in the season, but it seems like new coach Adam Gase just needed a while to get his message across and his systems in place. They started out just 1-4 but have won five straight since. They haven't beaten a murderer's row by any means, but each of the five teams they have played - the Steelers, Bills, Jets, Chargers and Rams - are dramatically better than the Niners are right now. San Francisco hasn't won since their opener and largely hasn't come close. Now Eric Reid is out for the year with an injury suffered last weekend, and Chip Kelly is being attached to every job opening in college football. It's a mess. Miami will win this one. And you should pick them.

New Orleans vs. Los Angeles: The Rams are 4-6, so compared to the other two losers on this list they are basically the Patriots. They have just one win in the last six games, and that was against the Jets so it is hardly inspiring. And now they have entered the Jared Goff era. Goff has huge upside, but the fact it took until Week 11 for him to make his debut as the first overall pick on a bad team is a clear sign that he isn't ready for primetime just yet. His first game was ugly. He was tentative and ineffective, and he has a lot of work to do just to get to serviceable. Only the Falcons and the Chargers have scored more points than the Saints, so they are going to be able to score some points here. The Rams have a solid defense, but it's not good enough to shut down New Orleans entirely. L.A. allows 18.7 points per game, and so the Saints should be able to score at least that many. New Orleans isn't exactly dominant on defense, but I just can't trust Goff and this offense to keep up - they are averaging less than 10 points per game in their last four and haven't exceeded 10 in any of those games. New Orleans should win this one. I like this one slightly less than the first two games on this list, but I wouldn't hesitate to take them if it came to that.

New England at Jets: I won't spend much time on this one because at this point it would be just bizarre if you haven't yet picked the Patriots. The Jets have lost their last two, and the win before that was just by three against the Browns so it is the next best thing to a loss. They just aren't good right now, and there isn't a quick fix to change that. New England has shown cracks a couple of times this year, but it is tough to imagine this being one of those spots. The Jets are struggling offensively and they can't stop others from scoring, so their path to victory against the best team in the AFC is far from clear.

Start:	April 3, 2025 @ 10:00 PM
Expert:	Tony George
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